March 5, 2010

Outline Of Special Reports And Commentaries In
CONSENSUS, National Futures and Financial Weekly

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THE STOCK MARKET, Dohmen Capital Research Institute, Inc.

Catching The Turns. On Friday, February 5, the NASDAQ Composite showed a 9.5% pull back from its high on January 19. The S&P 500 has a similar low while the DJ Industrials was down 8.3%.

DOLLAR DEFIANCE--COMMODITIES REBOUND DESPITE WEAKER EUR, Prepared by Danske Bank

The Short View: Dollar Decoupling. The past month has seen a continuation of the January correction in prices followed by a remarkable recovery during which commodities appear to have partly decoupled from the dollar appreciation.

HOTLINE ON MONEY AND THE ECONOMY, Van Eck-Tillman Advisories, Inc.

As you know, I have been bullish on the U.S. economy for some time now. After looking through the February employment report that was released this morning I am really starting to get excited about what 2010 has in store for the economy.

2009 REPEAT?, Strategic Marketing Services, Inc.

Written for DTN Ag News. Last week's column recounted where we have been since the January 12 USDA report estimated record yields, increased stocks and more acres. We considered that under the backdrop of world credit and economic uncertainties and a mega soybean crop soon to emerge on the marketplace.

INVESTMENT STRATEGY, Raymond James Financial, Inc.

"Be Conservative Not Conventional". I was reminded of Ken Fisher's cogent comments from his 1989 Forbes article as I perused Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholders' letter over the weekend. The "memory jog" came while examining Berkshire's stock market performance. Sure enough, since 1965 the S&P 500's compounded annual gain (including dividends) was -9.3% for a compounded return of 5,430%.

ECONOMIC MONITOR WEEKLY COMMENTARY, Raymond James Financial, Inc.

Under The Weather. The recent economic data have been generally weaker than expected, casting some doubt on the prospects for the recovery. However, economic recoveries are not usually associated with steady growth across sectors. Growth is inherently uneven.

MARKET COMMENTARY, The Acuvest Letter

Overview And Opinion. Watching the health care summit during the week was like watching an old Abbot and Costello segment, "Who's on first? I dunno. Third base." The Democrats want to push through anything and the Republicans don't want to push through anything. Both sides attempted to make their point, but neither struck a "winning blow" in the televised battle.

CATTLE OUTLOOK, University of Missouri-Columbia

USDA's February cattle on feed report said we started the month with 2.6% fewer cattle than a year ago and the lowest number for any February since 2003. January placements into large feed yards were down 1.8% and below year-ago for the third consecutive month.

HOG OUTLOOK, University of Missouri-Columbia

Sow prices reached record highs this week. On Wednesday, the national weighted average price for sows exceeded $60/cwt live for the first time ever (at least I cannot find a similar day). Why? We are not exactly sure. Sow slaughter has been below year-ago levels for 6 of the last 7 weeks, down 5.8% during this period.

GENERAL OUTLOOK, Commodity Insight

In the world of investing there is an old tried and true saying; "Bulls can make money and bears can make money but pigs get slaughtered." The implication is clear and generally correct. If you get greedy, the odds are, you will lose money. If you are too greedy, the odds are greater yet that you will be slaughtered.

MARKET PRICE ANALYSIS UPDATE, Ag Financial Strategies

Weather--RFP Chicago Precip index has been in a down trend since last 2009--less precipitation the models had forecast a long term cyclical turn to dry for 2010. Chicago Temp index was within a slightly up trend since last October when the models had called for an end to a decadal cooling cycle as correction of larger global warming cycle.

PORK PROFITS BEGIN TO CLAW BACK DEPLETED EQUITY, University of Illinois

Return to profitability is the theme for the pork industry in 2010. The large losses began in the fall of 2007, so it has been nine quarters of losses, with some very large losses. Those losses were a result of soaring feed prices in 2007 and 2008, recession in late 2008 and 2009, and a dose of H1N1 that sickened pork demand.

TECH TALK, The Windy City Trader

MAY CORN: Trend neutral. Support 3.75. Resistance 4.03. May take a shot at the gap at 4.03.
MAY SOYBEANS: Trend neutral-down. Support 9.35. Resistance 9.85. Huge world crops ignored. Follows Dow.
MAY SOYBEAN MEAL: Trend down. Support 260. Resistance 285. Weakest of soy. Follows beans now.

MARKET WATCH, Astro-Trend

(March 2010) This month's letter covers March 1st through April 4th.
There are only a few major planetary events for March. Here are the highlights:
03-08--Saturn 90 degrees to the U.S. Venus--A delay or setback for the U.S.
03-12--Jupiter 120 degrees to the U.S. Sun--Positive news for the U.S. should bring some optimism.

THE TODD MARKET FORECAST, Stephen Todd

Still Looking Higher. Take a look at the top chart below. The New York Composite Index is the most broadly based listed index representing 2300 common shares. If you will look at the arrow (top right) and move your gaze to the arrow (top left) you can see that we are at the same level that we were in early October 2009.

TECHNICAL COMMENTS, Avalon Partners, Inc.

As we see it, the recovery in the labor market is on track and the economy is poised to add jobs in March. However, while we expect the February data to show a net loss of 42,000 jobs (weather related), we reiterate that unemployment has peaked and look for the February rate to have held steady at 9.7%.

IS THE DOLLAR REALLY SAFER THAN THE EURO?, Delta Global Advisors, Inc.

The European currency has depreciated dramatically against the U.S. Dollar in the past few months, falling from over $1.50 on December 1 to $1.35 today. The move has caused many investors to question the viability of the European Union and its currency, while also serving to reinforce the notion of the USDA's position as the world's reserve currency.

BEIGE BOOK, Federal Reserve Board

Summary. Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and based on information collected on or before February 22, 2010. This document summarizes comments received from businesses and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.

CFTC COMMITMENT OF TRADERS, Deutsche Bank AG/London

--RBOB Gasoline: Net Length At A Six Week High.
--Platinum: Net Length At A Seven Week High.
--Palladium: Net Length At A Seven Week High.

JIM WYCKOFF'S BI-WEEKLY COMMENTARY, Jim Wyckoff On The Markets

S&P 500 Index. Recent price action in the U.S. stock indexes is setting up a potentially significant technical event forthcoming. Recent renewed price uptrends on the daily charts are pointing to prices soon challenging the January highs.

NATURAL GAS AND OIL, Wavelength Energy CTA

Crude oil hovers above $80 despite bearish EIA report and firm U.S. Dollar as the market continues to desperately cling to the economic recovery theory eventually bringing increased energy demand, while natural gas in truer form plunged after lighter supply withdrawal and fading winter.

WEEKLY REPORT, Commodity Futures Forecast

It's All About Crude. The front page of today's Wall Street Journal Section directs readers to the back page 16C that hosts two contrasting articles about crude oil. At the top, Liam Denning writes "The Oil Market Is Throwing a Curve" while on the bottom Brian Baskin reports "Solid Data Put Oil Back over $80."

WEEKLY RE-LAY, INSIIDE Track Trading

--Bonds And Notes Validating February 18/19 Cycle Low; Surge Into Month-End Turns Trends Back Up...Advance Into Early-April Possible.
--Japanese Yen Also Validating February 18/19 Cycle Low; Surge Above 1.1500/JY Expected In March...
--March 19h = Ideal Date For Next Peak!

EMPLOYMENT SITUATION, FEBRUARY 2010, U.S. Department of Labor

Nonfarm payroll employment was little changed (-36,000) in February, and the unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment fell in construction and information, while temporary help services added jobs.

THE YIELD CURVE, FEBRUARY 2010, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Since last month, the yield curve has moved up and gotten steeper, with long rates rising a bit more than short rates. The difference between these rates, the slope of the yield curve, has achieved some notoriety as a simple forecaster of economic growth.

EURO PROBLEMS, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Greece's recent debt problem has many commentators wondering about the viability of the euro zone. It has also sent the euro reeling. Whether a country is better or worse off in a monetary union like the euro zone depends on whether the gains from giving up monetary-policy sovereignty exceed the costs of losing an important parameter for economic adjustment.

FINANCIAL MARKET WEEKLY, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ

In the Fed's exceptionally low rates for an extended period promise, "extended period" means four meetings. This number 4 comes up a lot. The latest sound bite was from Chicago Fed President Evans who said "3-4 meeting." March 16 is one, April 27-28 is two, June 22-23 is thee, August 10 is four; the Fed funds rate will be held down at its emergency 0.25% level with no change until September 21, 2010 at the earliest according to the extended period promise.

THE ENTERPRISING INVESTORS GUIDE, Ockham Research LLC

The price-to-peak earnings multiple held steady last week at 12.4x as major equity indexes were little changed. As in the recent past, earnings have come in well ahead of expectations thus far; although, they still have a long way to go before reading optimistic, full-year estimates.

THE WEEKLY VIEW, River Front Investment Group

There's an old saying that goes: "he who has the gold, makes the rules." Since President Richard Nixon took the dollar, and by proxy the world, off the gold standard in 1971, and after four decades of fiat currency experimentation, we think the financial version of the golden rule can be amended to "he who creates the money, makes the rules."

US ECONOMICS/STRATEGY WEEKLY, Deutsche Bank

This Friday's employment report is likely to be severely impacted by inclement weather. Nonfarm payrolls are projected to decline 75k and the risk is for an even weaker number. Consequently, we are going to put more weight on the unemployment rate, which should not be distorted.

FX STRATEGY WEEKLY, Deutsche Bank

Rate differentials and Greek CDS suggest a short-term base in the euro. China is exerting a greater influence on carry, so be wary of upcoming event risk. We remain long JPY. Elsewhere, our most accurate gauge of investor positioning shows a scaling back of GBP shorts, despite its sell-off.

IMM COMMITMENT OF TRADERS, Deutsche Bank

USD long positions added over the past week. As of Tuesday, 23^rd February, net USD long positions rose to 113k from the previous week's level of 83k. On an index basis, net USD positioning is now at 3.

ECONOMICS NOTES FOR INVESTORS, Pointon York Sipp Solutions

"It's absurd," said Jean-Claude Trichet last week, "to suggest that Greece might leave the euro bloc." Politically, perhaps, he's right; but economically, wrong. It's more absurd that Greece should contemplate staying.

US WEEKLY LETTER, Informa Global Markets

Prior to the release of February jobs data, there was a great deal of attention paid to snow. There was also a great deal of attention paid to some of the more extreme forecasts, anticipating job losses of 100k. As it turns out, paying attention to snow was a good idea, but paying attention to extreme estimates was not.

U.S. BUSINESS CONDITIONS WEEKLY, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ

Employment data is just the start of a string of economic indicators that are going to show the effects of severe weather in February. The important take away is to know that it's no indication that the economic recovery is faltering and the data should bounce back in March.

January 2010 Construction At $884.1 Billion Annual Rate by U.S. Department Of Commerce

Manufacturers' Shipments Inventories, And Orders January 2010 by U.S. Department Of Commerce

Personal Income And Outlays January 2010 by U.S. Department of Commerce

February ISM Report On Business by Institute for Supply Manaagement

Help-Wanted Online Data Series by The Conference Board

Productivity And Costs by U.S. Department Of Labor

This Week In Petroleum by U.S. Department Of Energy

Export Sales by U.S. Department of Agriculture

Weekly Jobless Claims by U.S. Department of Labor

CONSENSUS Report of Commitments of Traders

CONSENSUS INDEX OF BULLISH MARKET OPINION by Consensus, Inc.
A Graphic Illustration For Contrarian Traders

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