May 9, 2008

Outline Of Special Reports And Commentaries In
CONSENSUS, National Futures and Financial Weekly

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US WEEKLY LETTER, Informa Global Markets

For the sake of argument, let's assume that commodity prices are rising because high-commodity-use economies are a leading source of global growth. What are the implications? What policies should central banks and governments pursue in such a situation?

THE WEEKLY RE-LAY, INSIIDE Track Trading

Stock indices have each their upside objectives and remain capable of seeing a pullback into May 9. Traders should have sold and then covered ESM futures with average losses of about $250/contract.

COMMODITY FUTURES FORECAST WEEKLY REPORT, Philip Gotthelf

When I recommended selling the 125 June crude oil call for $1,500 and twenty-eight days until expiration, I thought I was getting a good deal. What a difference a few weeks can make.

NATURAL GAS AND OIL, United Strategic Investors Group

Petroleum rockets beyond all fundamental supports to test $124 despite gain in U.S. supply and stronger dollar, as fear speculation takes over, while natural gas follows back to challenge previous highs following brief correction

INSIIDE TRACK, Eric S. Hadik

The month of April-like many other Aprils-experienced an upsurge in global earth-shaking events, with the U.S. also encountering earthquakes in at least two unique regions.

U.S. AND WORLD STOCK MARKETS, Aden Research

The stock market is moving higher and the action is impressive. The Dow Transportations has been leading the way and so far, the other stock indices are following. But the Transports have been the stars.

MARKET WATCH, Astro-Trend

There are four major planetary windows this month: May 2, Saturn turned Direct in Virgo. Virgo is the ruling sign for soybeans and Saturn is the ruling planet for coffee. Virgo tends to bring a general deflationary effect.

ECONOMIC VIEWS FOR INVESTORS, Pointon York Sipp Solutions

One of the most reliable indicators of a country's economics strength is the approval rating accorded to its government. Electorates are predictably single-minded in this regard; forgiving of their political leaders in good times, unforgiving of them in bad.

THE YAMAMOTO FORECAST, Irwin T. Yamamoto

Our "boring" portfolio of cash (bank money-market accounts) and an inverse fund (Rydex Ursa Fund-RYURX) easily outperformed the various market averages-domestically and internationally. Our portfolio was solidly in the black.

NORTH AMERICAN OUTLOOK, BMO Financial Group

There has been a sea-change in investor sentiment since the Fed backstopped the Bear Stearns buyout in mid March. Equity markets are 11% off their lows (led by banks). Treasuries have sold off, the greenback has stopped falling, gold has lost its glitter, and junk-bond spreads have narrowed from five-year highs.

TODD MARKET FORECAST, Stephen Todd

There are strong upward pressures during an election year ostensibly because the parties in power try to pump up the economy. The tax rebate due to soon go out is a good example.

SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK, U.S. Department of Energy

West Text Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices increased from $101 to $120 per barrel over the first 3 weeks of April as supply disruptions in Nigeria and the North Sea and continuing strong demand growth in the emerging market countries pressured oil markets.

REAL GDP 2008:Q1 ADVANCE ESTIMATE, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2008, the same growth rate as last quarter, according to the advance release by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

STOCKMARKET CYCLES, Peter Eliades

As we begin the month of May, the stock market, especially the stock market as represented by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, has reached a fascinating and potentially critical juncture.

US ECONOMICS/STRATEGY WEEKLY, Deutsche Bank

The Fed cut rates 25 bps this week and hinted at a possible pause in rate cutting by removing its explicit easing bias. The labor market remains weak, but if the Fed does indeed want to pause,...

IMM COMMITMENT OF TRADERS, Deutsche Bank

Net USD short positions were significantly cut over the week. As of Tuesday, 29 April, USD net positions were 23k compared with -79k the week before. On an index basis, USD short positions fell to -0.6 from the previous week's value of -1.9.

THE WEEK AHEAD, Gain Capital

The financial media is abuzz with the Great Dollar Recovery story, but the real news traders need to focus on is the fall in the EUR. The USD is relatively stable at weak levels against most other major currencies-AUD/USD is only 150 pips below recent highs.

COMMODITY INSIGHT, Jerry Welch

The opening line to the modernist poem "The Waste Land" by T.S. Eliot is, "April is the cruelest month." The last line in the influential 434 line poem is, "I will show you fear in a handful of dust." For poetry lovers, April is the cruelest month. For those that invest, trade or happen to be agricultural producers, April was outright bullish and far from being cruel.

CORN PRODUCTION PROSPECTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, University of Illinois

The USDA's Prospective Planting's report released on March 31 provided much of the fuel for the spring rally in corn prices. Corn producers reported intentions to plant only 86.014 million acres of corn, nearly 7.6 million fewer acres than planted in 2007.

INVESTMENT STRATEGY, Raymond James Financial, Inc.

"...After the workshop, another student took us out to Claibourne, the thoroughbred farm where Secretariat was buried. He was one of the great racehorses of all time. We went to his grave. He was buried in an eight-foot mahogany coffin with a gold satin lining.

UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES, Strategic Marketing Services, Inc.

Ethanol critics have been making a lot of noise lately about how the biofuel is at fault for increasing food prices and other ills, so I'd like to put a few things in perspective for those good folks. Consider that in the U.S. we spend, annually, $38 billion on diet programs, $13 billion on chocolate and $13 billion on clothes.

SUPPLYING LIQUIDITY: THE TRIED AND TRUE AND THE NEW, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

On April 30, 2008, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2 percent. Since this latest round of rate cuts began in September 2007, the federal funds rate has been lowered a totl of 3.25 percent.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY, MB Wealth Corp.

The commodity bubble has burst and money is flowing out of commodities back into securities. Yeah, well, that was the story for last week but we don't consider it to be a prolonged trend.

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This Week In Petroleum by U.S. Department of Energy

USDA U.S. Supply/Demand Projections by the U.S. Department of Agriculture

Productivity And Costs by the U.S. Department of Commerce

Monthly Wholesale Trade Sales And Inventories March 2008 by the U.S. Department of Commerce

U.S. Internatioanl Trade In Goods And Services March 2008 by the U.S. Department of Commerce

Export Sales by U.S. Department of Agriculture

Weekly Jobless Claims by U.S. Department of Labor

CONSENSUS Report of Commitments of Traders

CONSENSUS INDEX OF BULLISH MARKET OPINION by Consensus, Inc.
A Graphic Illustration For Contrarian Traders

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