February 3, 2012

Outline Of Special Reports And Commentaries In
CONSENSUS, National Futures and Financial Weekly

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MARKET COMMENTARY, The Acuvest Letter

Observation-Various reports, governmental data, and statements by dignitaries are having a profound impact on global markets. The U.S. report on Gross Domestic Production for instance provided an insight into possible future economic development. The report showed GDP growing at a 2.8% pace in the fourth quarter, which was up from the 1.8% in the third quarter according to the Commerce Department on Friday.

CATTLE OUTLOOK, University of Missouri-Columbia

Retail beef prices set a new record in December for the fourth month in a row. The average grocery store price for choice beef was $5.016 per pound, up 1.5 cents from November and 57.8 cents higher than in December 2010. Retail beef prices have been above year-ago for 22 consecutive months.

WAIST DEEP IN THE BIG MUDDY, Euro Pacific Capital

With its announcement this week that it will keep interest rates near zero until at least late 2014, the Federal Reserve has put another large crack into the foundations underlying the U.S. dollar. In a misguided attempt to provide clarity and transparency, Ben Bernanke has instead laid out a simple road map for economists and investors to follow.

HOG OUTLOOK, University of Missouri-Columbia

Mandatory Price Reporting (MPR) data indicates that for barrows and gilts purchased in 2011 on a carcass weight basis by non-small packers, 4.2% were negotiated purchases, 38.4% were market formula contracts (formula priced from reported hog or pork prices), 9.8% were priced off of the futures market, 15.2% were other types of contracts, 4.7% were purchased from another packer, and 27.6% were raised by the packer that slaughtered them.

ORDER IN DISORDER, Strategic Marketing Services, Inc. Written for DTN Ag News

In the past eight weeks, there has been something for everyone. The ECB (European Central Bank), along with help from other friendly world banks, shot a message across the bow with enough money to shore up the EU banks and raise the question that perhaps things just might get better. The U.S. dollar, which had been in an uptrend since early November, was only halfway to the top.

CATTLE PRODUCERS SHOW SURPRISE INTEREST IN EXPANSION, Purdue University

While beef supplies will be very short for several more years, the USDA's Cattle report indicated that the very early stages of beef cattle expansion has begun as beef heifer retention has increased a modest one percent. However, the big picture is that beef cow numbers dropped 3 percent last year and this will mean a smaller calf crop in 2012 that will keep cattle slaughter small for 2013 and 2014.

ECONOMIC MONITOR WEEKLY COMMENTARY, Raymond James Financial, Inc.

The Fed: Dual Targets Or Dueling Targets?--The Federal Reserve has adopted an inflation target, as many other central banks have done long ago. However, the Fed retained its dual mandate, with a soft employment target. How will the two goals be achieved and what happens when they conflict? The Fed says is will use a balanced approach.

INVESTMENT STRATEGY, Raymond James Financial, Inc.

"Precisely Watson?"--Sherlock Holmes: "And, then there was the event of the dog barking in the night." Dr. Watson: "But Holmes, there was no dog barking in the night!" Sherlock Homes: "Precisely Watson!" According to Wikipedia (as paraphrased by me): It is precisely on this distinction that Holmes bases his insight. When the inspector asks, "Is there any point to which you would wish to draw my attention? Holmes responds, "To the curious incident of the dog in the night." But, protests the inspector, "The dog did nothing in the night."

THE OPTION ADVISOR, Schaeffer's Investment Research

You might reasonably ask if we can glean any information of value about the health of the market and its upside potential from examining a 40-month moving average of the S&P, which encompasses more than three years of price action. Or, to push this envelope violently, is there any value to a 320-month moving average--one of almost seven years' duration? Or do such lengthy periods render moving averages so stale as to be irrelevant to the current environment?

THE WELLINGTON LETTER, Dohmen Capital Research Institute, Inc.

The Agenda For 2012-The politicians in Washington should read the sub-headline of this issue. It is becoming clear that the Washington agenda for the 2012 election year is now in place. We predict that many populist programs will be announced. It is designed to produce a revival of optimism and counter the perception of some people that there is a socialist agenda. Together with the European efforts to "kick the can down the road", the crisis atmosphere will retreat into the background for awhile.

CORN-SOYBEAN PLANTING DECISIONS AND LONGER RUN RETURNS, University of Illinois

I many areas of central Illinois, corn-after-corn yields were substantially below corn-after-soybean yields in 2010 and 2011. These yield drags, along with large increases in corn costs, have led some farmers to reevaluate corn-soybean cropping decisions.

JIM WYCKOFF'S BI-WEEKLY COMMENTARY, Jim Wyckoff On The Markets

General Comment-Commodity markets got a fundamental boost from last week's proclamation by the U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee that the central bank's monetary policy will remain very accommodative for at least the next two years. The Fed's reassertion it will keep U.S. interest rates very low, with the possibility of another quantitative easing move in the future, aided commodity markets on a few fronts.

THE TODD MARKET FORECAST, Stephen Todd

Good Start-More Upside to Come-There are a number reasons why we feel that the stock market will be higher than current levels by year's end. Let's go over them.
First, and perhaps most important is the fact that earnings increased by 21% for the S&P 500 during 2011, but that index was virtually flat for the year.

COMMODITY INSIGHT GENERAL OUTLOOK, Jerry Welch

Once Bitten, Twice Shy-In a few days, February, the most bearish month of the year for the commodity markets arrives. The weakness associated with the 2nd month of the year is so well known, feared and anticipated, it has been given a name. It is called the February Break. Historically, the bulls seldom make money when the 2nd month of the year rolls around. More often than not, sellers do well but buyers are hammered hard.

TO FIGHT OR NOT TO FIGHT THE WORLD'S CENTRAL BANKS, PIMCO

For decades, financial firms, captains of industry and investors who have bet against central bank actions have mostly lost. Hence the credo: Don't Fight the Fed.

Once again, this fight-the-tide "trade" is the topic of debate: Should you bet that the Fed's colossal effort to reflate asset prices will end in colossal failure? What about the tidal wave of central bank activity abroad? Will it, against historical precedent, end in failure, too?

BEHIND THE HEADLINES, STEADY IMPROVEMENT FOR FRAGILE U.S. ECONOMY, PringTurner Capital Group

2011 was an emotional roller coaster for investors and marked the return of heightened market volatility,. Bad news and black headlines created fast moving up and down markets and yet by year-end prices for the S&P 500 ended nearly unchanged.

STEALTH QE HELPING EUROPE...FOR NOW, RiverFront Investment Group

European stocks are up about 6.5% so far this year compared to 4.8% for the S&P 500 primarily, in our vie, due to investor enthusiasm regarding the European Central Bank's (ECB's) long-term refinancing operation (LTRO). This ECB tactic offers unlimited Three-year funding (loans) to Eurozone banks and accepts a wide range of collateral; many banks have taken advantage of this.

THE LONG TERM BULL MARKET E WAVE COUNT, MarketTrendForecast.com

I have to be honest that I am grappling with a few possible counts since the March 2009 Bull market commenced in terms of the big picture.

WHY IS UNEMPLOYMENT DURATION SO LONG?, Federal Reserve Bank Of San Francisco

During the recent recession, unemployment duration reached levels well above those of past downturns. Duration has continued to rise during the uneven economic recovery that began in mid-2009.

WHY GOLD IS SHINING BRIGHT & WHAT THE FED IS DOING, goldandoilguy.com

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.

THE WEEK AHEAD, Gain Capital

-Highlights
-It's all Greek to me
-What the Fed said and didn't day
-Key data and events next week

TECHNICAL COMMENTS, Rockwell Global Capital, LLC

Macro Forecast-As we see it, the Fed's outlook for economic activity may be a bit pessimistic, notwithstanding several economic indicators that suggest the economy may be losing momentum. Indeed, consumer spending remains modest, and housing prices continue to fall playing into the hands of the Fed. However, the manufacturing and service sectors remain in a growth mode, and the economy continues to add new jobs on a monthly basis, suggesting the economy is not shifting course.

STRONG AS A BULL, Commodity & Derivative Advisors, LLC

The cattle market is a very inelastic market due to the breeding characteristics that control supply. The gestation period for cattle is approximately 40 weeks. Obviously, cows can be brought to market or, held back for breeding.

THE BIG PICTURE TITLE, PFGBest

Corn fundamentals remain constant as we enter next week. Cash prices being offered at U.S. shipping ports to meet export demand remain 40 to 80 cents over March futures, a sign that crop problems in South America have importers turning to the U.S. to fill needs.

THE WEEKLY RE-LAY, INSIIDE Track Trading

--Stock Indices Attack 3-6 Month Upside Targets (12,876/DJIA, Etc.);
--Crude Triggers Sell Signal On January 27 Close...Sharp Drop Expected On January 30-February 3!
--Euro Fulfills Projected Surge Into January 27;
--1.3235/ECH Exit Point Hit...Long Positions Being Liquidated.

COMMODITY FUTURES FORECAST WEEKLY REPORT, Philip Gotthelf

It's a Riot-Egyptians are rioting over a soccer game. How much more will they express their discontent if they cannot use their money to buy essentials? Libyan tribal factions are fighting in the streets and the U.S. is still trying to locate hand-held surface to air guided missiles, capable of bringing down jetliners. Syria may be on the brink of collapse, but there is no substantive organization behind the revolutionary movement.

US WEEKLY LETTER, Informa Global Markets

The Outlook - US Jobs Data Review for January
Data Previews - Merchandise Trade
US Calendar For The Coming Week

January ISM Report On Business by Institute for Supply Management

Productivity And Costs by U.S. Department of Labor

Help-Wanted Online Data Series by The Conference Board

Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, And Orders December 2011 by U.S. Department of Commerce

Personal Income And Outlays December 2011 by U.S. Department of Commerce

December 2011 Construction At $816.4 Billion Annual Rate by U.S. Department of Commerce

U.S. Consummer Confidence Index Decreases Slightly by The Conference Board

Weekly Petroleum Status Report by Department Of Energy

This Week In Petroleum by U.S. Department Of Energy

Export Sales by U.S. Department of Agriculture

Weekly Jobless Claims by U.S. Department of Labor

CONSENSUS Report of Commitments of Traders

CONSENSUS INDEX OF BULLISH MARKET OPINION by Consensus, Inc.
A Graphic Illustration For Contrarian Traders

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