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REDBOOK RETAIL AVERAGES

Retail Sales Index

For The Week Ended Saturday, August 16, 1997


			Latest Week		Latest Month
			vs.	vs.		vs.	vs.
		Same Week Previous	Same Month Previous
		Last Year   Week	Last Year     Month
Total Sales	8.2%	    —0.4%	8.4%	      0.7%
Same-Store Sales4.8%	    —0.1%	4.9%	      0.6%

The total-store average in the second week of retail August, ended August 16, 1997, softened to 8.2% from 8.6% the previous week, producing a 0.7% increase month-to-month, down from last week's 0.9%.

Results were fairly evenly distributed around sales plans, with some retailers in Redbook's sample underperforming and others exceeding expectations, but none too far from their targets. The notable feature of the week was a recovery among national department stores (chains), with one in particular returning strongly from softness in the first week to lift the entire sector. This was offset by a slight pullback among discount stores, resulting in an overall level below the opening week of the month, but which put our sample dead in line with its aggregate plan for the month, and with Redbook's forecast for August.

Some discount stores attributed their slight slowdown to the effects of the payroll cycle, but said they may see renewed strength next week, following the issue of mid-month pay checks. They noted, though, that this cycle had been less significant for some time, suggesting customers at these stores may be reverting to more normal buying patterns after the seasonal strength of the past few weeks.

Consumer demand, as indicated by merchandise trends, continued to focus on back-to- school and other fall themes, favoring apparel (especially children's) at the expense of hard lines. Several retailers noted that sales in home departments and in electronics also were strong.

The same-store average for the latest week of 4.8%, with the month-to-date some 0.6% ahead of July, unchanged from the previous week.

August Forecasts

Retailer target is the weighted mean of the sales growth targets set by Redbook's retailer sample at month-opening, and remains fixed for the duration of the month. Redbook forecast is updated weekly, except in the final week.


			Retailers Target	Redbook Forecast
		Yr-on-Yr Mth-to-Mth Yr-on-Yr	Mth-to-Mth
Total Sales	+8.4%	+0.7%	    +8.4%	+0.7%
Same-Store Sales+4.9%	+0.7%	    +4.9%	+0.7%

August 19, 1997 Redbook Research

A Division of Lynch, Jones, & Ryan, Inc.

Consensus National Futures and Financial On Line Index

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