Year-To-Year Change In Weekly Steer Carcass Weights
CASH POPS BACK TO $65,
MAYBE $66 NEXT WEEK
Prepared by Hales Cattle Letter
Stronger Fed Prices On Big Volume
Sales volumes were exceptionally large this week in all of the major feeding areas which cleaned up the carryover from last week's list. Show- lists will decline slightly through the balance of August and early September as supplies tighten slightly in the Texas Panliandle area, Fed prices should trend higher through early September but the fourth quarter will not be as good as the futures markets have projected.
Carcass Weights Above Last Year
Actual steer carcass weights for the week ending July 25 are eight pounds above last years. Seasonally, weights bottom about May each year and trend higher until the peak in October. This year will be like other years except that steer carcass weights could set new record levels by October. possibly exceeding 800 pounds. As a result, Fed beef production will be excessive during the fourth quarter.
Assuming steer and heifer slaughter is equal to last year, each two-pound increase in carcass weights adds about 1,000,000 pounds to Fed beef production each week. Last year steer carcass weights averaged about 766 pounds during the fourth quarter. This year they could easily average 785 or even higher. Thus, without any increase in steer and heifer slaughter in the fourth quarter, Fed beef production could exceed last year by almost 20,000,000 pounds per week.
Year-To-Year Change In Weekly Steer Carcass Weights
Cow Liquidation Continues
During the week ending August 1, cow slaughter was only 3,000 head below last year but almost 24,000 head above the 1991-1995 average. This is a dramatic change from the massive declines earlier this year. Even though cow liquidation continues this year, it is unlikely that cow slaughter will equal or exceed last year's drought enhanced level. Unfortunately, a reduction of 20,000 head per week during the fourth quarter will not reduce cow beef production as much as it would have last year since cow carcass weights are averaging about 17 pounds heavier than last year. A reduction of 10,000,000 pounds may be too optimistic.
Year-To-Year Change In Weekly Cow Slaughter
Feedlots Filling
Projected marketings in the fourth quarter exceed last year's projections. Steer and heifer slaughter during the fourth quarter will equal or exceed last year. Fed prices well below $70?
August 15, 1997David Hales and Tom Horton
Hales Cattle Letter
P.O. Box 1623, Amarillo, Texas
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