wmeubank@ocp.kcmo.com
PRUDENTIAL SECURITIES, INC.
One New York Plaza, New York, New York
(August 18, 1997) FROZEN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE: The FCOJ price situation, which had seen modest gains in early August after acting comatose for most of July, changed violently on August 14, when a private consultant's report caused November futures to lock limit down. The report, issued by Citrus Consulting International, projected Florida's 1997/98 orange crop at a record 253 million boxes, a rise of about 12% versus year-ago output. The USDA, which will not release its initial forecast of 1997/98 output until October 10, has pegged the state's 1996/97 production at 225.7 million boxes, which is Florida's current production record.
The latest Florida production forecast has driven values to new contract lows, extending the market's long-range negative price profile. At present, we cannot identify any bullish market factors that could realistically be expected to reverse the current price trend. Our next price target, basis the November contract, is 68.0-cent-per- pound level.
Arthur Stevenson
Added to the WWW 08-23-97
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