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REDBOOK RETAIL AVERAGES
Retail Sales Index
For The Week Ended Saturday, October 14, 1997
Latest Week Latest Month vs. vs. vs. vs. Same Week Previous Same Month Previous Last Year Week Last Year Month Total Sales 5.1% 0.1% 5.1% —0.9% Same-Store Sales 3.0% 0.4% 3.0% —0.3%
The total-store average in the first week of October fell slightly to 5.1% from 5.8% the previous week. The opening month-to-month change for October versus September was a negative 0.9%, after September itself closed 1.1% below August.
Results in the first week were again below our retailer target, which forecasts that annual sales growth in October will average 6.7%, and result in a 0.6% gain on September. It is worth noting that this target represents a pullback in expectations from recent months, when targets exceeded 8%, and is the most modest monthly plan since January. (October is a four-week month on the retail calendar, ending November 1.)
Virtually every company in the Redbook model reported below- plan sales in the first week. Conditions were described as broadly similar to those of recent weeks, which have been characterized by weak demand for seasonal apparel, with sales supported by other merchandise categories, like consumables, home goods and certain consumer durables. Falling temperatures are expected eventually to trigger seasonal demand for apparel inventory, and some retailers claim the process has begun, as sales picked up into the weekend, especially in the northeast, where fall weather prevailed. Some sources noted that they were also beginning to see early interest in Christmas-related items. In general, despite the soft start to the month, most retailers appear to be more optimistic than in recent weeks, although September's performance already has led many to revise third quarter sales and earnings forecasst, and to temper end-of-year expectations.
The same-store average for the latest week was 3.0% against 3.3% the previous week. The opening month-to- month change for October versus September was a negative 0.3%.
September Forecasts
Retailer target is the weighted mean of the sales growth targets set by Redbook's retailer sample at month-opening, and remains fixed for the duration of the month. Redbook forecast is updated weekly, except in the final week.
Retailers Target Redbook Forecast Yr-on- YrMth-to-Mth Yr-on-YrMth-to-Mth Total Sales +6.7% +0.6% +6.7% +0.6% Same-Store Sales +3.9% +0.7% +3.9% +0.7%
October 14, 1997 Redbook Research
A Division of Lynch, Jones, & Ryan, Inc.
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