wmeubank@ocp.kcmo.com
CROP PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS & SUMMARY
Corn Production Up Fractionally;
Soybean Production Down Slightly
Corn production is forecast at 9.31 billion bushels, up fractionally from 1996 and the September 1 forecast. If realized, this will be the third highest corn production on record. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 125.8 bushels per acre, up 0.6 bushels from last month, but down 1.3 bushels from 1996. Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at 74.0 million acres, unchanged from last month. Yield prospects increased in Illinois. Forecasted yield in Indiana, Wisconsin, and Nebraska decreased. Minnesota, Iowa, and Ohio yields remained unchanged.
Soybean production is forecast at 2.72 billion bushels, down slightly from the September 1 forecast, but 14 percent above the 1996 production. The yield is forecast at 39.0 bushels per acre, 0.3 bushels below the September 1 forecast, but 1.4 bushels above the 1996 final yield. Of the eight major producing states, the forecasted yield decreased in Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska. The yield forecast remained unchanged in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio. As of October 5, 37 percent of the crop had been harvested in the 19 major producing states.
All Cotton
Production is forecast at 18.4 million bales, down 8,000 bales from August and down 3 percent from 1996. This is the fourth largest crop on record. Yield is expected to average 658 pounds per acre, down 49 pounds from last year. The Delta States production increased 170,000 bales from the previous forecast, while the Southeastern States had a 180,000 bale reduction from September. Dry conditions continued in the Carolinas and Georgia, reducing crop potential. Mississippi's production was increased 60,000 bales from last month.
All Oranges
The initial forecast of the 1997-98 U.S. all orange crop is a record large 14.3 million tons, up 12 percent from the previous record of 12.8 million tons set in the 1996-97 season. Florida's all orange, early-midseason, and Valencia crops are forecast at record high levels for the second season in a row. Florida's all orange forecast is 254 million boxes (11.4 million tons), 12 percent more than the 226 million boxes produced last season. Early and midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 146 million boxes (6.57 million tons), 9 percent greater than last season. Florida's Valencia forecast of 108 million boxes (4.86 million tons) is 17 percent above last season's 92.0 million boxes. California's all orange production is forecast at 74.0 million boxes (2.78 million tons), 9 percent more than last season. The Navel orange forecast was unchanged from September at 44.0 million boxes (1.65 million tons) but up 10 percent from last year's production of 40.0 million boxes. The initial California Valencia forecast of the 1997-98 season is 30.0 million boxes (1.13 million tons), 7 percent more than last year.
Florida Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice (FCOJ)
Yield for the 1997-98 season is forecast at 1.55 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. The forecast projects the final yield as reported by the Florida Citrus Processors Association. The final 1996-97 yield for all fruit used in FCOJ was 1.57 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix. Projected yields for 1997-98 early-midseason and Valencia varieties will be published in the January Crop Production report.
Crop Summary
Area Planted And Harvested
1996 And Forecasted October 1, 1997
Area Planted Area Harvested
Crop 1996 1997 1996 1997 Corn 79,487 80,227 73,147 74,049 Sorghum 13,188 10,268 11,901 9,512 Soybeans-X 64,205 70,850 63,409 69,816 All Cotton 14,633.5 13,905.0 12,868.1 13,436.5 Upland 14,375.5 13,655.0 12,612.2 13,187.5 Amer-Pima 258.0 250.0 255.9 249.0 Sugarbeets 1,368.4 1,464.8 1,323.3 1,433.0 Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed 888.9 914.5 1,000 Acres
Yield Per Acre
Crop And Unit 1996 1997 Corn for Grain (bu) 127.1 125.8 Sorghum for Grain (bu) 67.5 69.9 Soybeans for Beans (bu) 37.6 39.0 All Cotton (lbs) 707 658 Upland (lbs) 701 650 Amer-Pima (lbs) 991 1,053 Sugarbeets 20.2 20.7 Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed 33.1 32.5 1996 And Forecasted October 1, 1997
Production
Sept 1, Oct 1, Crop and Unit 1996 1997 1997 Corn for Grain (bu) 9,293,435 9,267,655 9,311,705 Sorghum for Grain (bu) 802,974 653,208 664,499 Soybeans for Beans (bu) 2,382,364 2,745,891 2,721,843 All Cotton (bale) 18,942.0 18,417.5 18,409.5 Upland (bale) 18,413.5 17,873.5 17,863.5 Amer-Pima (bale) 528.5 544.0 546.0 Cottonseed (ton) 7,143.5 7,052.8 7,058.8 Sugarbeets 26,680 29,358 29,638 Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed 29,462 29,664 29,695 1996 And Forecasted October 1, 1997
Crop Production Narrative
Crop Moisture
Depicts short-term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.
Uses–Applicable in measuring the short-term, week- to-week, status of dryness or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.
Limitations–May not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile, or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about 55 degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long-term (months, years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index.
Drought Severity
Drought Severity Index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and reflects long-term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as evaportranspiration.
Uses–Applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in aquifers, reservoirs, and streams.
Limitations–Is not generally indicative of short- term (few weeks) status of drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this is indicated by the crop moisture index).
September Weather Summary
Major crop areas of the Midwest escaped the month without a significant freeze, although frost dotted the northwestern Corn Belt on September 21. Three days later, frost was scattered across areas from Lower Michigan into the Northeast. Warm, drier-than-normal weather in the western Corn Belt promoted crop development, but cool conditions in the eastern Corn Belt hindered crop progress. Meanwhile, the Southeast received significant relief from a 2-month dry spell during a late-month storm, but dryness persisted in many areas from Texas to the Delta. The same storm produced excessive rainfall in west-central Peninsular Florida, but began to dent moisture deficits that had been accumulating in coastal Texas since June. The tropical Atlantic remained uncharacteristically quiet during September. Hurricane Erika, whose fury remained mostly at sea, was the only named storm during the month. The last time only one tropical-storm strength system formed in September was 1946, and the previous occurrence of only one formation in August-September was in 1929. In contrast, the Southwest endured a tropical-storm strike (Nora on September 25) for only the fourth time on record. Farther north, the autumn rainy season began quickly across the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, the central Plains received beneficial moisture for winter wheat establishment, even though monthly temperatures averaged 1 to 3 degrees F above normal. Dry weather prevailed on the northern Plains, however, where monthly departures ranged from +2 to +6 degrees F. Temperatures averaged as much as 3 degrees F below normal in the eastern Great Lakes States. In California, Eureka opened the month in the midst of a record-setting 14-day string (August 21 to September 3) of 70-degree maxima, fueled by unusually high sea-surface temperatures. Except for a few days, warm weather also prevailed throughout the Western and Central States. Late in the month, temperatures in the San Francisco Bay region soared to the highest levels of the year to date at locations such as Santa Rosa (98 degrees F on September 24) and downtown San Francisco (97 degrees F on September 23). In Arizona, Tucson's average temperature of 84.2 degrees F was 3.8 degrees above normal and their third-highest September value on record. On September 9, Austin, TX recorded 100 degrees F, their first triple- digit heat of the year. Midland, TX noted 101 degrees F on September 17. A day later in Kansas, Wichita's high of 100 degrees F represented their first triple-digit heat since July 1 and second such day of the year. Several long-term climate anomalies persisted in September. In Florida, Miami Beach received record rainfall (58.16 inches) during the first 9 months of the year. Nearby Miami received 12.44 inches (259% of normal) during September. Farther west, several locations in Oregon posted record water-year (October 1-September 30) precipitation, including Astoria (101.19 inches, or 152% of normal), Eugene (79.50 inches; 161%), Salem (61.27 inches; 156%), and Portland (58.95 inches; 162%). Astoria also posted a monthly record rainfall of 7.27 inches, boosted by a September daily-record total of 2.67 inches on the 16th. In Washington, water-year totals wound up at 131% of normal at both Quillayute (137.76 inches) and the Paradise Ranger Station (150.87 inches). In Utah, water-year precipitation records were established in Kanab (28.54 inches; 215%) and Trenton (30.65 inches; 165%). Tropical Storm Nora's strike near Yuma, AZ on September 25 marked the first such occurrence since Kathleen's arrival on September 10, 1976. Kathleen, with a track similar to Nora's, produced the strongest sustained winds (57 mph in Yuma) in the United States associated with an eastern Pacific tropical system. The highest U.S. sustained winds attributed to Nora, also at Yuma, were clocked at 40 mph, with gusts to 54 mph. Damaging winds occurred as far north as the higher elevations of southern Utah. Other tropical storms to reach the Southwest were Joanne, which hit Arizona in October 1972, and an unnamed system–the only tropical storm on record to strike coastal California–in September 1939. Nora weakened quickly while traversing the lower Colorado River Basin, but produced 5.75 inches in Bagdad, AZ and 4.57 inches atop Mt. Laguna, CA. The storm also ended Los Angeles' record-setting dry spell at 219 days. A few days earlier, on September 15, remnant moisture from Hurricane Linda, formerly the strongest eastern Pacific Hurricane on record (185 mph), ended San Diego's record-tying dry spell at 164 days. In Las Vegas, NV, the combination of monsoonal moisture and Nora's rains resulted in a monthly rainfall of 2.06 inches, second only to a 3.39-inch total in September 1939. On September 26-27, rainfall locally topped 14 inches near Tampa, FL. Two-day totals reached 14.50 inches in Pinellas Park, 13.05 inches in Ruskin, and 9.74 inches in Tampa. Tampa's 24-hour total of 8.45 inches was their greatest on record for September and third highest ever. Coastal Texas also netted heavy rain, primarily from September 19-24, including 12.53 inches in Palacios and 4.43 inches in Brownsville. Significant rain also dampened the central Plains, providing moisture for newly planted winter wheat, and the Southeast, boosting topsoil moisture. Little rain reached the Delta, however, leaving New Orleans, LA with a September rainfall of 0.81 inches, their third driest on record. New Orleans' August-September total of 3.06 inches was their driest such period since 1899. In Texas, only 0.04 inches fell in Abilene. Dry spots also lingered or developed in the Middle Atlantic and Northeastern States. In Connecticut, Hartford's total of 0.98 inches was their sixth-lowest September rainfall. Richmond, VA received only 0.84 inches during the month. Another dry spot was the northern Plains, where monthly rainfall included 0.16 inches in Dickinson, ND and 0.23 inches in Great Falls, MT. From September 4-8, more than 125 daily-record lows were reported across the Midwest and Southeast, but scattered frost was confined to areas from the northern Red River Valley to Lower Michigan. The growing season ended across parts of the northern Plains on September 19-20, but only scattered frost dotted the upper Midwest on September 21. Hettinger, ND reported 21 degrees F on the 20th; Sioux City, IA notched a daily-record low of 32 degrees F a day later. On September 24, Lansing, MI recorded 32 degrees F. The chilly episodes had little impact on Corn Belt crops, which matured under generally favorable conditions.
General Crop Comments
Above-normal temperatures in the central and western United States provided favorable weather for crop maturation in September. Warm, sunny weather in the western Corn Belt pushed corn and soybeans to maturity, especially later in the month. Although below-normal temperatures kept progress behind normal in the eastern Corn Belt, dry weather allowed crops to mature. Late-month frost caused little or no damage in the upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeastern States. Mid-month showers in the Corn belt and late-month rains in the Southeast may have benefited late-planted soybeans. Harvest was underway later in the month, but progressed behind the normal pace. End-of-month precipitation slowed harvest in the southern Plains and Southeast.
Cotton progress was ahead of normal in the western cotton-producing states, but behind normal farther east. In the Southeast, dry soils continued to stress fields until late-month storms brought relief. At the end of the month, Tropical Storm Nora caused some damage to fields in western Arizona, but overall damage was less than expected. The storm slowed defoliation activity in southern California, but harvest activities continued farther north.
Hot, dry weather stressed the peanut acreage for most of September until rains at the end of the month improved soil moisture supplies. Rice harvest progressed well ahead of average in California, but behind the normal pace elsewhere. Sorghum harvest gained momentum under clear, sunny skies until late-month rains fell and slowed activity in most of the major sorghum producing States. Very warm, dry weather allowed spring small grain harvest to finish ahead of the average pace, especially in Minnesota, Montana, and North Dakota.
Planting of the 1998 winter wheat crop started slowly, then gained momentum toward the end of the month. Early on, Washington growers were delayed by showers and a later- than-normal harvest, but seeding progressed rapidly under clear skies the second half of the month. Grasshoppers delayed planting in Montana and Nebraska as farmers took preventative measures to control the insects. Mid-month hot, dry weather in the central and southern Plains allowed farmers to make good planting progress. Late-month rainfall slowed planting in the central and southern Plains, but replenished dry soils.
Corn For Grain
Acreage to be harvested for grain is forecast at 74.0 million acres, unchanged from last month, but up 1 percent from 1996. The October 1 Corn Objective Yield data indicate an ear count slightly below 1996, but above the five-year average for the seven objective yield states (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin). The record level ears per acre was set in 1996. As of October 5, 82 percent of the acreage in the 17 major states was mature. This compares with 77 percent for 1996 and 79 percent for the five-year average. Fifteen percent of the corn had been harvested, compared to 14 percent last year and the five-year average of 16 percent. Corn acreage rated in the fair to good condition totaled 77 percent compared to 74 percent for a year ago. However, corn rated in excellent condition was 14 percent compared to 17 percent for last year. As of the beginning of October the majority of the Corn Belt remained frost free with the exception of parts of Michigan and Wisconsin.
In Iowa, forecasted ear population is at a record high. Eight percent of the corn was harvested as of October 5, compared to 5 percent in 1996 and the average of 10 percent. Corn condition was 80 percent fair to good.
Forecasted ear count in Illinois is below 1996 but above the five-year average. Thirteen percent of the corn was harvested, compared to 14 percent a year ago and the five-year average of 15 percent. The majority (82 percent) of corn was rated in fair to good condition.
In Ohio, ear populations are above last year and the average. One percent of the corn was harvested, lagging behind last year's six percent and the five-year average of nine percent. Corn condition was 74 percent fair to good.
Nebraska and Wisconsin ear populations are below last year but above the five- year average. Eleven percent of the corn was harvested in Nebraska, ahead of last year's six percent and the five-year average of 10 percent. In Wisconsin, four percent of the corn was harvested compared to five percent in 1996 and the average of seven percent. In Nebraska, 76 percent of the corn was rated in fair to good condition, whereas 86 percent was rated in good to excellent condition in Wisconsin.
In Minnesota and Indiana, forecasted ear counts are below last year and the five-year average. In Indiana, 5 percent of the corn was harvested, compared to 8 percent in 1996 and the average of 13 percent. Six percent of the corn was harvested in Minnesota, equal to last year and the five-year average. In Indiana, 83 percent of the corn was rated in fair to good condition compared to 78 percent for Minnesota.
Soybeans
Soybeans intended for harvest, at 69.8 million acres, are unchanged from the September forecast. Crop maturity is well ahead of the last two years. As of October 5, the percent of soybeans dropping leaves was 86 percent, compared to 73 percent last year and a five-year average of 80 percent. The percent of soybeans dropping leaves in Missouri was 29 points ahead of last year. In Illinois, the percent of soybeans dropping leaves was 22 points ahead of last year. Soybeans were rated in mostly fair to good condition as of the week ending October 5.
The soybean harvest was 37 percent complete as of October 5, 22 points ahead of last year and 14 points ahead of the five-year average. The harvest progressed at a rapid pace across the Corn Belt during the week of September 28-October 5 as warm dry weather provided excellent conditions for harvest. Farmers in Minnesota harvested more than half of their soybean crop during the week, while Iowa farmers harvested nearly 50 percent of their crop.
In Minnesota, 69 percent of the crop was harvested as of October 5, 51 points ahead of 1996 and 49 points ahead of the 5-year average. The harvest in Iowa was 56 percent complete by October 5, compared to 19 percent last year and a five-year average of 28 percent. Missouri farmers had harvested 25 percent of the crop, 15 points ahead of last year and 12 points above the 5-year average.
In Nebraska, 30 percent of the harvest was completed by October 5, 12 points ahead of the previous year but 2 points behind the 5-year average. The percent of soybeans harvested in Indiana and Ohio was 27 percent and 19 percent, respectively, well ahead of last year but short of the five-year average.
The October Objective Yield Survey shows pods per 18 square feet in Arkansas at a record high. The October Survey pod counts are above the 1996 final pod counts in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, and Ohio. The survey pod counts are below the 1996 final count in Minnesota and Missouri.
Cotton
Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 13.2 million acres, is unchanged from September and is up 5 percent from last year. American-Pima harvested acreage also remains unchanged from last month, at 249,000 acres, 3 percent below 1996.
In early October, 62 percent of Texas' acreage was in good to excellent condition and 10 percent was rated poor to very poor. Boll opening was three-fourths complete, 14 percent ahead of the 5-year average. In the Texas Plains, bolls began opening rapidly during mid- September, but cool weather the following week slowed that development. Some harvest activity began in this area. Heavy rains slowed harvest in the Upper Coast and some fields were showing damage as a result. The Blackland and Central harvest proceeded with little delay. About one-fourth of the acreage was harvested on October 5, compared to 27 percent normally harvested. Cotton objective yield data indicate Texas' crop has the second highest count of large bolls and the fourth heaviest boll weights since 1987.
The Delta States, (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee), rated their cotton in mostly fair to good condition in early October. Only 38 percent of Louisiana's crop was in good to excellent condition on October 5 and 17 percent was in poor to very poor condition. Missouri reported 44 percent in good to excellent condition and 20 percent of their acreage was in poor condition in early October. About one-half of the acreage in Arkansas and Mississippi was rated in good to excellent condition and 72 percent of Tennessee's acreage was rated good to excellent. During September, this region's weather had brief periods of cool temperatures but a ten-day period of really warm weather helped the crop develop. All states in this region lagged behind the normal harvest pace. Data from objective yield surveys show large boll counts for Arkansas rank fourth and Mississippi at the highest level since 1987. Louisiana's large bolls are the second lowest during this time period. Early season boll weight data indicate Arkansas weights are the second lowest during the past 10 years, Mississippi ranks sixth, and Louisiana weights are the lowest.
About three-fourths of Arizona's crop was in good to excellent condition and harvest was 6 points ahead of the average pace, at 30 percent, on October 5. Tropical storm Nora entered into western Arizona with wind and rain, but most of the crop had been harvested which limited damage. California producers applied growth regulators during the month and limited harvest began in the Desert areas. In late September, harvest gained momentum in the northern part of the San Joaquin Valley and harvest was 15 percent complete in early October. Eighty-five percent of the acreage was in good to excellent condition. October 1 cotton objective yield counts show California large boll numbers as the lowest since 1987, but boll weights rank fifth in the past 10 years.
In the Southeastern states (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina), the majority of the crop was in fair to good condition on October 5. About 80 percent of the acreage in each of these states was rated as fair to good. All of these states were behind the average harvest progress as boll opening also lagged behind the normal pace in each state. The dry conditions in Georgia during the month caused some boll shedding. Producers applied defoliants and began harvest in mid-September in Georgia, but heavy rains the last week of September delayed harvest.
American-Pima production is forecast at 546,000 bales, up 2,000 bales from September's forecast and up 3 percent from 1996's output. Yield is indicated at 1,053 pounds per harvested acre, up 62 pounds from last year. Arizona's crop was increased 2,000 bales from last month, as favorable conditions caused a slight increase in potential. In California, defoliation began in the southern San Joaquin Valley by early September. Limited harvest on the earliest planted fields began in late September. New Mexico's crop development was delayed due to cool weather during and after planting and remains about two weeks behind the normal development pace.
All cotton ginnings totaled 1,295,350 running bales prior to October 1, compared with 2,145,650 running bales ginned to the same date last year and 2,454,650 running bales in 1995.
Sugarbeets
Production for the U.S. is expected to total 29.6 million tons, an increase of 11 percent from 1996 and up 1 percent from September. Area for harvest, at 1.43 million acres, is up 8 percent from last year but equal to the September forecast. The average yield, at 20.7 tons per acre, is 0.5 tons above 1996 and 0.2 tons above the yield forecasted in September.
Unusually warm temperatures for the Red River Valley postponed stockpiling of sugarbeets in the region and caused initial liftings to lag behind the average pace. California sugarbeet growers experienced continued favorable growing and harvest conditions. Farmers reported no crop damage due to heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Nora. Sugarbeets continued to develop favorably in the central Plains with warm days and cool nights. Harvest began at mid-month. In Michigan, the sugarbeet crop benefited from September rains.
Florida Citrus
Florida's citrus belt had normal rains early in September, but then most areas turned very dry. Irrigating was necessary on caretakers' properties. The dry conditions prevailed until September 26 and 27 when a low pressure weather system covered Florida's citrus belt. From 4 to 14 inches of rain fell in the two-day period.
New crop fruit is in very good condition and maturity is somewhat advanced for this time of year. Fresh fruit packing houses packed Navels, Ambersweet and Hamlin oranges, Fallglo and Robinson tangerines, Satsumas, and K- Earlys during September. There were two processing plants open to receive packing house eliminations. Caretakers have been active cutting cover crops, spraying, fertilizing, herbiciding, and pushing and burning dead or abandoned trees.
Texas Citrus
Fruit set was good this season, but high temperatures have kept fruit smaller than last year. Shortage of irrigation water is a major concern to most growers. Harvesting is expected to start soon in the Rio Grande Valley.
California Citrus
The Valencia harvest was almost complete by the end of September. New-crop Navels were treated for red scale, and Gibberellic acid was applied to delay fruit drop and maturity. New- crop lemon harvest began in the Imperial Valley area by the end of the month. Grapefruit were sizing well.
October 10, 1997 Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA, Washington, D.C.
Added to the WWW 10-10-97
Last updated on 10-11-97
Hosted by:
One Crossroads Place
610 West Maple Ave, Suite WWW
Independence, MO 64050
(816) 252-4080
sysop@kcmo.com