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THE LESLIE ADM INVESTOR
SERVICES CROP SURVEY
Soybean And Corn Production Estimate
As Of October 1 Conditions
SOYBEANS: On October 1, a U.S. soybean crop of 2,741,927,000 bushels was indicated by our survey. Such compares with last season's 2,382,364,000 and the record in 1994 of 2,516,694,000. The past five-year average is 2,227,437,000. The smallest crop during the past five years was 1,870,958,000 in 1993. The indicated average yield of 39.3 bushels per acre compares with last season's 37.6 bushels. The 1994 record was 41.4 bushels; the past five-year average is 36.9 bushels. The poorest yield was 32.6 bushels in 1993. The USDA last month saw 2.746 billion bushels.
Soybean plants dropped their leaves throughout the U.S. on October 1 at 72% compared with the normal progress of 64%. Iowa at 81% compared with 72%, Illinois 76% versus 69%, Indiana 84% versus 79%, Ohio 74% versus 81%, Michigan 51% versus 64%, Minnesota 96% versus 76%, Nebraska 91% versus 69%, and Missouri 60% versus 49%. Harvesting for the U.S. at 9% compared with the normal 10%. Iowa was 7% harvested versus its usual 10%, Illinois 11% versus 15%, Indiana 6% versus 12%, Ohio 4% versus 10%, and Minnesota 14% versus 7%. South Dakota, with its 3.5 million acres, was the top reporting good-to-excellent condition state at 79%. Iowa and Ohio reported 68% and Illinois 55%.
Soybean Supplies And Demands: The old-crop carryover on August 31, 1997, is USDA estimated at 132 million bushels. This and a production of 2.742 billion bushels will create a supply of 2.874 billion. The USDA is projecting new seeason demand at 2.550 billion. Such suggests a year-from-now carryover of 2943 million (versus the 132 million carryover on August 31, 1997). The USDA expects farm prices to average $6.15 per bushel next season versus $7.38 during the season just ending.
CORN: Production as of October 1 conditions is indicated at 9,325,478,000 bushels, according to our survey of elevator managers. Such compares with 9,293,435,000 last season. The past five-year average is 8,516,643,000. The high during that period was 10,102,735,000 bushels in 1994; the low was 6,336,470,000 in 1993. The indicated yield of 125.9 bushels per acre compares with last season's 127.1 bushels, the five-year average of 122.3 and the 1994 record of 138.6 bushels. The poorest yield was 100.7 bushels in 1993. USDA last month saw 9.268billion bushels.
The U.S. corn crop on October 1 was 59% mature versus the normal 63%. Iowa at 80% compared with 69%, Illinois 56% versus 69%, Indiana 52% versus 67%, Ohio 17% versus 41%, Wisconsin 25% versus 42%, Minnesota 45% versus 56%, and Nebraska 67% versus 62%. Iowa's corn harvest at 3% compared with the normal progress of 5%, Illinois 4% versus 8%, Nebraska 4% versus 6%, and Missouri 28% versus 25%.
Corn Supplies And Demands: When a corn crop of 9.325 billion bushels is added to the USDA's prospective August 31 carryover of 884 million, a season supply of 10.209 billion bushels is indicated. The latest USDA estimate of new season demand is for 9.355 billion. If such develops, the August 31, 1998, carryover will total 854 billion bushels (versus 884 million this August 31). The USDA expects a new season average farm price of $2.65 versus $2.70 during the season just ending.
U.S. Production
(in thousand bushels)
Leslie USDA USDA 10/1/97 9/1/97 1996 Soybean 2,741,927 2,745,891 2,382,364 Corn 9,325,478 9,267,655 9,293,435
October 7, 1997 The Leslie Analytical Organization, Inc.
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