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REDBOOK RETAIL AVERAGES
Retail Sales Index
For The Week Ended Saturday, October 7, 1997
Latest Week Latest Month vs. vs. vs. vs. Same Week Previous Same Month Previous Last Year Week Last Year Month Total Sales 5.8% —1.3 %6.8% —1.1% Same-Store Sales 3.3% —0.9 %4.0% —0.3%
The total- store average in the fifth and final week of September fell to 5.8% from 7.2% the previous week. The month-to-date average also fell to 1.1% below August from 0.8%. September thus ended substantially below our retailers' target which, at the start of the month, was forecast to be flat against August. This followed two consecutive months in which Redbook's retail sample came in ahead of expectations, and represents a return to the more normal condition of target shortfalls.
Most retailers reported the fifth week as the softest of the month. Many said the weakness was broadly distributed across regional boundaries and merchandise categories, indicating below-average traffic in general rather than consumer disinterest in particular lines. However, some retailers noted that business was perceptibly worse in the Northeast and Midwest, and suggested that the unseasonably warm weather which has persisted nationwide was a stronger deterrent in those areas than in the South and West, where consumers expect less seasonal variation. They added that seasonal inversions, like strength in horticultural goods side-by-side with weakness in fall and winter apparel, supported this diagnosis, with its implication that a change in the weather would provide the cure. This remains to be seen and, as retailers enter the final month of their third (October) quarter, some are either voicing concern about meeting quarterly targets or revising them. Despite this, it should be noted that while September appears weak in relation to an unusually strong August, the month was ahead of September last year and not out of line with annual growth rates recorded so far this year.
The same-store average for the latest week was 3.3% against 4.2% the previous week, and the same-store monthly change fell to —0.3% from —0.1%.
September Forecasts
Retailer target is the weighted mean of the sales growth targets set by Redbook's retailer sample at month-opening, and remains fixed for the duration of the month. Redbook forecast is updated weekly, except in the final week.
Retailers Target Redbook Forecast Yr-on-YrMth-to-Mth Yr-on-YrMth-to-Mth Total Sales +8.0% n.c. +7.1% —0.8% Same-Store Sales +4.7% +0.4% +4.2% —0.1%
October 7, 1997 Redbook Research
A Division of Lynch, Jones, & Ryan, Inc.
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