National Futures and Financial Weekly
Copyright 1997 by Consensus, Inc.
October 10, 1997 * * 1737 McGee, Kansas City, Mo. 64108 U.S.A. * * Up Dated Daily

Financial Commentary

  • Commodity Futures Forecast Weekly Report
    Prepared by Commodity Futures Forecast
    *Is Greenspan Trading The S&P?

  • Ripe For Change. . .
    Prepared by Commodity Information Systems, Inc.
    In recent years, commodity markets have adopted a central belief...shortages in one nation can be offset by imports from another!

  • Dean Witter Futures Commentary
    by Dean Witter, Inc.
    *Base Metals, Energies, Softs, Grains,

  • Economic Perspective
    by Merrill Lynch & Co.
    *Growth May Trigger Uptick In Inflation
    *Will Labor Market Tighten Further?

  • Cash Steady As Futures Collapse
    by Hales Cattle Letter
    *Nearby Basis Finally In Line
    *Placements Remain Heavy
    *Beef Production Stays Up
    *Inspectors Plague Packers

  • A Dose Of Reality Hits The Treasury Market
    Prepared by Jack McIntyre
    Strategy
    Buy the December 116/112 put spread on the December T-bond for 1-13/64s (current price) or better. This makes break-even 114-25+. There are 37 days until expiration.

  • U.S. Economic And Interest-Rate Outlook
    Prepared by Merrill Lynch & Co.
    Global Securities Research & Economics Group
    Growth May Trigger Uptick In Inflation
    While growth slowed to 3.3% in the second quarter from 4.9% in the first quarter, the overall pace a bit above 4% is considered too fast to be sustained without triggering an uptick in inflation, Indeed as we have recently been writing, a combination of circumstances including the absence of a further decline in energy prices and the tightening of the labor market which occurred in the first half, is likely to result in a period of somewhat higher inflation over the next 6 to 12 months.

  • Myers On Futures
    by Steven R. Myers
    *Addicted To Corn!
    *Palladium Still Leader Of The Metals!
    *Crude Oil Season Is Coming
    *Not The Dollar Index Now

  • Strategy For The Month
    Prepared by Market Systems Newsletter
    Intermediate-Term Forecasts For Mutual Funds
    Our previous forecast of January, 1995, for the Dow Jones Average (which was at 4000) to reach a Dow 5000 provided an aggressive long position for mutual fund investors. We also recommended using a 5% trailing-stop strategy, which kept us fully invested until May, 1996.

  • By Doing Nothing, Is Fed Policy Really Getting Tighter?
    by The Northern Trust Company

  • Interest Rate Watch
    Prepared by R.J. O'Brien & Associates, Inc.
    What does that imply about the ability of a large grain harvest to combat inflation?
    The yield curve. The 30-year/2-year spread has recently begun to steepen. This may be just a reflection that bond yields are too low in relation to shorter maturities, or maybe even a hint that the next Fed move in '98 will be an ease. However, the curve steepens when inflation threatens, and the recent widening of the spread occurred a week after gold prices bottomed.

  • The Sovereign Advisor
    Prepared by Sovereign Management Investment Counsel
    The economy has slowed somewhat over the past month as the September non-farm payrolls climbed by 215,000 versus an expected increase of 340,000. The unemployment rate was 4.9%, higher than projected. We view this as an aberration in a continued overall strong economic environment, and have high expectations for the fourth quarter.

  • Strategy Focus
    Prepared by Merrill Lynch & Co.
    Global Securities Research & Economics Group
    Midwest Grain Harvest Is Underway
    The active November soybean contract has weakened recently after a steady advance from a low of $5.77 in early July to a high of $6.53 on September 18. Currently, prices are hovering just above $6.22. Overall, our view is that harvest pressure will limit upside over the near term with the harvest starting to pick up momentum. Most recent reports suggest above average yields.

  • The Copper Journal
    by J.E. Gross & Associates, Inc.
    *Stocks Tell The Story

  • Weekly Outlook
    Prepared at University of Illinois
    Supply And Demand Prospects For Corn And Soybeans
    On October 10, the USDA will release updated estimates of the size of the 1997 U.S. corn and soybean crops. In addition, world production estimates and consumption forecasts will be updated. Opinions about the direction and magnitude of changes in the estimated size of the U.S. crops vary considerably.

  • Nikko Market Comments

  • Nothing's Right When The Economy's Too Tight

    Prepared by The Nikko Securities Co. International, Inc.
    *Nothing's Right When The Economy's Too Tight

    Consensus National Futures and Financial On Line Index | Financial Commentary Index

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