IOM DECEMBER S&P 500 INDEX: Short-term trend down. Long-term trend down.

Moving Averages--Negative--5-day 913.97, 20-day 958.03; negative--4-day 906.46, 9-day 937.92, 18-day 955.76; 50-day 949.04.

Oscillators--RSI 36%, stochastic 54/42, MACD <196>10.65/<196>3.04.

Resistance--941.30-941.50 ** key daily resistance. Support<197>861.30-861.50 * key daily support/major weekly support.

Technical Indicators--Daily market momentum remains down below the 935.90 area today. Daily momentum indicators are testing major support levels, which warns that a corresponding rally in price may be impending over the next week or so.

Viewpoint--The market remains in the midst of a new major downtrend on the daily chart, while the longer-term (and dominant) weekly trend is up. The major daily downtrend remains in force below major resistance at the 949.05 level, while the major weekly uptrend remains valid above the 861.50 area. The market must break out of this range in order to establish a new directional move. However, congestion within this range for 1-3 weeks would not be unusual considering recent volatility.

CBOT DECEMBER TREASURY BONDS: Short-term trend up, long-term trend up.

Moving Averages--Positive--5-day 117.10, 20-day 116.07; positive<197>4-day 117.14, 9-day 116.15, 18-day 116.06; 50-day 114.27.

Oscillators--RSI 70%, stochastic 63/66, MACD 0.58/0.41.

Resistance--118.31-119.02 *** key daily resistance/contract high (10-28-97). Support--116.14-116.17 ** key daily support.

Technical Indicators--Daily market momentum remains up today above the 117.00 area. Bearish divergence remains apparent between price and weekly momentum indicators. Declining open interest on higher price over the last three sessions (bearish warning signal).

Viewpoint--The major daily, weekly and monthly trends remain up, while bullish triangle patterns on the weekly and monthly chart suggest minimum upside objective of 127.11. Bearish divergence and recently declining open interest on higher prices warn of an impending downside correction. However, my short-term outlook remains bullish above 116.14 today. A test of the 117.00 area my provide a new daily to intra-week buying opportunity if tested.

October 31, 1997
John J. Kosar
Greenwich Natwest Futures, Inc.
311 S. Wacker, Chicago, Illinois

SIEGEL October 30, 1997 | MARKET TIMING
THE WINDY CITY WORKSHEET | THE VOLUME REVERSAL SURVEY
ASPRAY'S GLOBAL TRADER
GREENWICH NATWEST FUTURES DAILY TECHNICAL RESEARCH
G.I.S., WINTREND SYSTEM | WESTFALIA INVESTMENTS TECHNICAL COMMENTS
THE WEEKLY RE-LAY | SIEGEL October 23, 1997

Technical Corner Index

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