wmeubank@ocp.kcmo.com
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SLIPS, THE
CONFERENCE BOARD REPORTS TODAY
November, December Numbers
Will Be Closely Watched
Consumer confidence tumbled in October, The Conference Board reports today. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 123.3 (1985=100), down about 7 points from September's 130.2.
Both widely-watched components of the Index fell in October. The Present Situation Index declined to 147.4, down from 157.6 in September. The Expectations Index registered 107.3 in October, down from 111.9 last month.
The Board's Consumer Confidence survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by NFO Research, Inc., of Greenwich, Connecticut.
Analysts' Eyes Focused
On November-December Numbers
“It's too early to determine whether the October decline signals the beginning of a downward trend in consumer confidence or whether it's simply a temporary blip in a still-strong upward pattern,” says Lynn Franco, Associate Director of the Board's Consumer Research Center. “The Index will be closely watched in November and December. November has traditionally been a strong month for consumer confidence, leading into Thanksgiving buying. While December has been mixed, the coming two months represent a crucial selling period for many retailers.”
Only 33% of all surveyed consumers rate current business conditions as “good,” down from nearly 40% in September. Some 13% call present business conditions “bad,” up from 12% the month before. More than 48% say jobs are not as plentiful, up about 1 point over last month.
The percentage of consumers looking for the economy to improve during the next six months stayed about the same at 19%, as did the proportion anticipating business activity to decline (about 6%).
But less than 25% of all consumers are predicting increases in their families' incomes, down from more than 28% in September.
“The historical importance of job and income trends in consumer confidence suggests that consumer attitudes about their incomes will also be closely monitored in the next two months,” notes Franco.
Conference Board
U.S. Consumer Confidence
Oct 97(p) Sep 97-R Aug 97 Jul 97 Consumer Confidence 123.3 130.2 127.6 126.3 Present Situation 147.4 157.6 156.1 154.5 Expectations 107.3 111.9 108.7 107.6 Jun 97 May 97 Apr 97 Oct 96 Consumer Confidence 129.9 127.9 118.5 107.3 Present Situation 157.1 152.6 141.6 124.6 Expectations 111.7 111.4 103.2 95.7
(p)–Preliminary.
(r)–Revised.
October 28, 1997 The Conference Board
Added to the WWW 10-31-97
Last updated on 11-01-97
Hosted by:
One Crossroads Place
610 West Maple Ave, Suite WWW
Independence, MO 64050
(816) 252-4080
sysop@kcmo.com