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REDBOOK RETAIL AVERAGES
Retail Sales Index
For The Week Ended Saturday, October 28, 1997
Latest Week Latest Month vs. vs. vs. vs. Same Week Previous Same Month Previous Last Year Week Last Year Month Total Sales 7.5 %0.1% 6.7% 0.6% Same-Store Sales 4.4% unch 3.9% 0.6%
The total-store average in the third week of October edged up slightly to 7.5% from 7.4% the previous week. The second consecutive week of stronger sales raised the month-to-date average to 6.7% from 6.3%, and the month- to-month change for October versus September to 0.6% from 0.2%.
Soft-line sales were again the key to the improved numbers, as they had been the previous week. Retailers said demand for seasonal clothing continued along with cooler weather, boosting both traffic and average sales tickets. Apparel led volume growth in all sub-sectors of our sample, with some reporting double-digit increases for the week, including merchandise. However, with shoppers intent on replenishing wardrobes, hard lines suffered and tempered overall results for certain retailers, especially discount stores.
Certain retailers also reported good business in Halloween-related sales. This effect was varied, however, depending on merchandise mixes and the importance individual retail managements attach to this line of business, which appears to be on a secular uptrend. Some sources warned also that this year Halloween could take back what it gives, since it falls on Friday, typically a major shopping day.
The week's results broght our retail sample into line with its monthly target, and with Redbook's forecast of a month-to-month gain of 0.6%, and average annual growth of 6.7%. A fourth and final week of sales gains comparable to those of the past two weeks, which is entirely conceivable, would push our sample beyond its target.
The same-store average for the latest week was 4.4% against 4.3% the previous week, effectively unchanged. The month-to-month change for October versus September rose to 0.6% from 0.4%.
September Forecasts
Retailer target is the weighted mean of the sales growth targets set by Redbook's retailer sample at month-opening, and remains fixed for the duration of the month. Redbook forecast is updated weekly, except in the final week.
Retailers Target Redbook Forecast Yr-on-YrMth-to-Mth Yr-on-YrMth-to-Mth Total Sales +6.7% +0.6% +6.7% +0.6% Same-Store Sales +3.9% +0.7% +3.9% +0.7%
October 28, 1997Redbook Research
A Division of Lynch, Jones, & Ryan, Inc.
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