Prepared by

The Nikko Securities Co. International, Inc.

Jobless claims fell to a 297,000 pace in the October 25 week, unwinding last week's bulge and bringing the 4-week moving average back down to 305,000. The number of benefit recipients fell by 48,000, as the insured unemployment rate remains stuck at a low 1.9%. These readings provide new evidence that labor conditions remain very tight. A confirmation of strong demand for workers was seen in the September Help Wanted Ads index. That measure rebounded to 87 in September from an upward revised 85 reading in August. Employers are still aggressively recruiting workers as the pool of unemployed shrinks. Manufacturing activity may have softened a bit in October. The APICS index posted a surprising fall to 45.1% from 54.3% (dipping below the 50% neutrality line). The manufacturing component of the NY NAPM survey weakened to 70.3 from 71.7 (still strong but less rapid growth). In NY, a surge in non-manufacturing activity (from 59.0 to 69.9) lifted the aggregate business index up by 10 points. Perhaps the worst news from the report was a 10-point jump in the Prices Paid index. The leap in the price index is particularly surprising since commodity prices have been under downward pressure this month. The CRB and the Journal of Commerce indices have declined since September.

Robert A. Brusca, Chief Economist

The Nikko Securities Co. International, Inc.

One World Financial Center, Tower A

200 Liberty Street, New York, New York

Financial Commentary

THE ALLENDALE ADVISORY REPORT | ASTRO-TREND | SPRING OUTLOOK
COMMODITY FUTURES FORECAST WEEKLY REPORT
THE OPTION ADVISOR
COMMITMENT OF TRADERS ANALYSIS-CURRENCY CONTRACTS
MYERS ON FUTURES | NIKKO MARKET COMMENTS | NIKKO MARKET COMMENTS
SORTING IT ALL OUT | INTEREST RATE WATCH | FINANCING AND THE “NEW” CANADA
U.S. TREASURY BOND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
ITALY: WILL MARKET OPTIMISM BE REWARDED
SEEING THROUGH THE ILLUSIONS IN STRUCTURED FINANCE
EL NINO OUTLOOK | THE REAPER MARKET COMMENTS | WEEKLY OUTLOOK
YOU SHOULD BE FULLY INVESTED FOR THE NOVEMBER-DECEMBER-JANUARY RALLY

Consensus National Futures and Financial On Line Index

Copyright 1997, by Consensus Inc.  All American and Pan American rights Reserved. editor@consensus-inc.com

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