The composite index of leading indicators increased 0.2 percent in August to 104.3 (1992 equals 100), according to preliminary estimates prepared by The Conference Board.

The Conference Board's calculations show that seven of the ten leading economic indicators rose in August. The most significant increases are money supply in 1992 dollars and manufacturers' new orders of consumer goods and materials. The most significant negative contributor to the composite leading index in August is average weekly initial claims for state unemployment insurance.

The leading index increased 0.3 percent in July and increased 0.1 percent in June (neither value was revised). During the six-month period through August, the index increased 0.9 percent and six of the ten leading economic indicators advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 65.0 percent as one component held steady).

The composite index of coincident indicators increased 0.3 percent in August to 116.8 (1992 equals 100). All three of the available components–employees on nonagricultural payrolls, industrial production, and personal income less transfer payments–increased. (Data on manufacturing and trade sales in August are not yet available.)

Based on revised data, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in July and increased 0.4 percent in June. Over the six months from February to August 1997, the coincident index increased 1.7 percent.

The composite index of lagging indicators increased 0.3 percent in August to 104.9 (1992 equals 100). Based on revised data, the lagging index decreased 0.4 percent in July and decreased 0.2 percent in June.

Average workweek, 
  production workers, mfg..........................0.03(p)
Average weekly initial claims,
  state unemployment insurance....................—0.11
Mfrs.' new orders, consumer goods
  and materials industries........................+0.10(p)
Vendor performance"
  slower deliveries diffusion index...............+0.02
Mfts.' new orders, nondefense
  nondefense capital goods........................+0.01(p)
Building permits—0.01
Stock prices, 500 common stocks (c)...............+0.01
Money supply M2...................................+0.16(p)
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury
  bonds less federal funds........................+0.01
Index of consumer expectations (c)................—0.03

(p)–Preliminary.

(c)–Copyrighted. Series from private sources are provided through the courtesy of the compilers and are subject to their copyrights: Stock prices, Standard & Poor's Corporation; consumer expectations, University of Michigan's Survey Research Center.

October 1, 1997 The Conference Board

Statistics
MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS INVENTORIES AND ORDERS
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE | DELIVERABLE GRAIN STOCKS
EXPORT INSPECTIONS | AUGUST 1997 NEW HOUSING SALES | U.S. GRAIN STOCKS 09/01
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE EDGES UP
NAPM REPORT ON BUSINESS | REDBOOK RETAIL AVERAGES
LEADING, COINCIDENT, AND LAGGING
PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS | AUGUST 1997 CONSTRUCTION
Consensus National Futures and Financial On Line Index

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