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REDBOOK RETAIL AVERAGES
Retail Sales Index
For The Week Ended Saturday, September 27, 1997
Latest Week Latest Month vs. vs. vs. vs. Same Week Previous Same Month Previous Last Year Week Last Year Month Total Sales 7.2% 0.8% 7.1% —0.8% Same-Store Sales 4.2% 0.5% 4.2% —0.1%
The total-store average in the fourth week of September firmed to 7.2% from 6.4% the previous week. The month to date was unchanged at 0.8% below August, well short of retailers' target which at the start of the month forecast September to be flat against August.
A number of retailers reported a modest pick-up in business over the week. In particular, the regional department stores in our model recovered some of the ground lost last week, and the discount stores improved by almost a point. These effects managed to advance the Averages in aggregate, but concealed very mixed results, as some companies further downgraded monthly plans and, in certain cases, showed negative year-over-year sales growth. Weekly business fluctuations aside, the persistence of a softer tone in recent sales reports is leading many retailers to conclude that consumer fundamentals are indeed weakening after three strong months. However, annual sales growth rates continue to outpace last year's.
Among mercandise categories, consumables and other basic groups generally lead business at discount stores, suggesting sales driven by everyday domestic demand in the absence of clear seasonal or other trends. Women's apparel and accessories, especially higher-priced lines, appearaed to be the sales leaders at most department stores.
Business conditions are not expected to change substantially in the final week of the retail month, which would, anyway, have only an incremental effect on the average. Redbook again adjusted its forecast downward and now expects September to end 0.85 below August, instead of 0.5% below.
The same-store average for the latest week was 4.2% compared with 3.7% the previous week, and the month-to-month change remained steady at —0.1%.
September Forecasts
Retailer target is the weighted mean of the sales growth targets set by Redbook's retailer sample at month-opening, and remains fixed for the duration of the month. Redbook forecast is updated weekly, except in the final week.
Retailers Target Redbook Forecast Yr-on-Yr Mth-to-Mth Yr-on-Yr Mth-to-Mth Total Sales +8.0% n.c +7.1% —0.8% Same-Store Sales +4.7% +0.4% +4.2% —0.1%
September 30, 1997 Redbook Research
A Division of Lynch, Jones, & Ryan, Inc.
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