wmeubank@ocp.kcmo.com
GREENWICH NATWEST FUTURES
DAILY TECHNICAL RESEARCH
IOM DECEMBER S&P 500 INDEX: Short-term trend neutral, long-term trend up.
Moving Averages–Negative–5-day 964.03, 20-day 969.64; negative/changing–4-day 967.87, 9-day 967.47, 18-day 970.99; 50-day 951.05.
Oscillators–RSI 42%, stochastic 74/71, MACD 3.25/5.47.
Resistance–980.40-982.00 *** key daily resistance. Support–935.50-936.30 *** key daily support/20- week moving average.
Technical Indicators–Pivotal price area where the next large directional move is likely to begin. Bearish divergence exists between price and weekly momentum indicators. Daily market momentum has now turned neutral (from down).
Viewpoint–The market is now positioned right on top of major daily support at the 951.05 level (which represents its 50-day moving average). If the current major uptrend on the daily chart is still valid and in force, this is where the current correction should end, and where the uptrend should resume. The next large, several-week directional price move is very likely to begin from right here. Upside penetration of 980.50-982.00 is necessary to confirm the uptrend has resumed.
CBOT DECEMBER TREASURY BONDS: Short-term trend neutral, long-term trend up.
Moving Averages–Negative–5-day 115.10, 20-day 115.26; negative/changing–4-day 115.14, 9-day 115.12, 18-day 115.27; 50-day 114.14.
Oscillators–RSI 60%, stochastic 52/37, MACD 0.20/0.33.
Resistance–116.28-116.31 * key daily resistance/minor weekly resistance. Support–114.28-114.31 * key daily support.
Technical Indicators–Rising daily oscillators warn of an intra-week move to the upside. Pivotal price area where the next large directional move is likely to begin. Bearish divergence exists between price and weekly momentum indicators.
Viewpoint–The market remains in the midst of a minor downside correction within the current major daily uptrend. Rising daily oscillators combined with the market's recent test of major support at the 114.17-114.11 area sets up an ideal technical environment for the major uptrend to resume, if still valid and in force. Watch open interest closely over the next few sessions–it should begin to expand on higher prices to help confirm the validity of the uptrend.
October 24, 1997John J. Kosar
Greenwich Natwest Futures, Inc.
311 S. Wacker, Chicago, Illinois
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