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REDBOOK RETAIL AVERAGES
Retail Sales Index
For The Week Ended Saturday, October 21, 1997
Latest Week Latest Month vs. vs. vs. vs. Same Week Previous Same Month Previous Last Year Week Last Year Month Total Sales 7.4% 2.3% 6.3% 0.2% Same-Store Sales 4.3% 1.3% 3.6% 0.4%
The total-store average in the second week of October rose to 7.4% from 5.1% the previous week, boosting the month-to-date average to 6.3%, and the month-to- month change for October versus September to 0.2% compared to —0.9% the opening week of the month.
The firmer results broke a string of below-par numbers and led retailers to express guarded optimism for the remaining two weeks of October. Some noted that mid-week strength had continued throughout the weekend, laying a base for positive numbers next week. However, other retailers cautioned that their weekend sales had been mixed, and warned against projecting the trend without more sustained evidence.
The pick-up in sales was almost entirely the result of more focused interest in cool-weather categories, especially seasonal apparel, where several companies reported double-digit gains for the week. Retailers said the turn in temperatures across much of the country had a dual effect on consumers, reducing the relative appeal of outdoor activities and sparking demand for fall clothing. The results vidicated those retailers who had blamed the weather for the recent lull, and continued to remind of the unpredictability of swing months like September and October. However, while the week's strength served to bring retailers more into line with their monthly plans, Redbook's sample remains below its aggregate October target, which is for a month-to-month gain of 0.6%, and a year- over-year average of 6.7%. Meeting this goal will require two more weeks of similar above-plan activity.
The same-store average for the latest week was 4.3% agains 3.0% the previous week. The month- to-month change for October versus September rose to 0.4% from —0.3%.
September Forecasts
Retailer target is the weighted mean of the sales growth targets set by Redbook's retailer sample at month-opening, and remains fixed for the duration of the month. Redbook forecast is updated weekly, except in the final week.
Retailers Target Redbook Forecast Yr-on-YrMth-to-Mth Yr-on-YrMth-to-Mth Total Sales +6.7% +0.6% +6.7% +0.6% Same-Store Sales +3.9% +0.7% +3.9% +0.7%
October 21, 1997Redbook Research
A Division of Lynch, Jones, & Ryan, Inc.
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