National Futures and Financial Weekly
Copyright 1997 by Consensus, Inc.
October 24, 1997 * * 1737 McGee, Kansas City, Mo. 64108 U.S.A. * * Up Dated Daily

Financial Commentary

  • THE ALLENDALE ADVISORY REPORT
    Prepared by Allendale, Inc.
    *Commodity Wrap-Up For October 17, 1997
    After last weeks huge rally, farmers took advantage of high prices by selling inventory, China took advantage of it and canceled beans (rumors they canceled 500k beans), and talk of a potential U.S./Japan shipping dispute all contributed to the market topping out this week. Speculators bought most of the week while commercial selling dominated. For the week, December corn fell 6.25 cents, November beans fell 12.5 and December wheat fell 2.0 cents.

  • STRATEGY FOCUS
    October 16, 1997 Bill O'Neill
    Merrill Lynch & Co.
    Global Securities Research & Economics Group
    *Voltility And Crude Oil Go Together
    The crude oil market has spent the past few weeks trading in what might be described as a “violently volatile” fashion on a combination of technical and fundamental factors. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report told much of the story as it showed a massive build of speculative, mainly fund, positions.

  • WEEKLY OUTLOOK
    Prepared at University of Illinois
    *Soybeans: More Focus On The South American Crop
    Soybean prices have been volatile over the past three weeks, reflecting the record large U.S. harvest and the record pace of domestic crush and export sales. Concerns about the impact of the El Nino weather pattern on Asian palm oil production and South American fish meal production also contributed to the volatility. Over the past two years, palm oil production accounted for 26 percent of the world's edible vegetable oil production. On a 44 percent protein basis, fish meal production has accounted for nearly 7 percent of the world's protein meal production. Any significant shortfall in the production of either of those commodities would increase the demand for soybeans.

  • ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE
    October 16, 1997 David Horner
    Merrill Lynch & Co.
    Global Securities Research & Economics Group
    *Greenspan Jolts Bond Traders
    *Budgetary Circumstances Are Still Favorable
    Despite the longer-term problems that need to be addressed, the near-term budgetary circumstances are still rather favorable.

  • FED STEER PRICES GOING NOWHERE FAST
    October 17, 1997 Bavid Hales and Tom Horton
    Hales Cattle Letter
    *A Two-Dollar Trading Range But. . .
    *Bullish Psychology Falling?
    *Fed Supplies To Increase

  • U.S. ECONOMIC AND INTEREST-RATE OUTLOOK
    October 23, 1997 Merrill Lynch & Co.
    International Fixed Income Research
    The market is running in place. Treasuries have been moving up and down: rising after Fed Chairman Greenspan made no policy-related statements in his two public appearances, falling after the firmer-than-expected Retail Sales report, rising again on the softer-than-expected CPI and Philadelphia Fed reports, and tumbling after the upward surprises on housing starts and industrial production.

  • STICKING WITH THE U.S. TREASURY MARKET
    October 22, 1997 Jack McIntyre, MCM, Inc.

  • THE TODD MARKET TIMER
    October 20, 1997 Stephen Todd
    *Bottoming, Bond Advance Decline Line, Chart Commentary, Indicator Summary, Random Thoughts

  • CASH AND BONDS-- THE RODNEY DANGERFIELDS OF FINANCIAL ASSETS?
    October 24, 1997 Paul L. Kasriel
    The Northern Trust Company
    Everyone knows that, in the long run, stocks will earn you a higher return than will cash or bonds. And all of us are, of course, long-run investors.

  • MYERS ON FUTURES
    October 24, 1997 Steven R. Myers
    *Panic Equals Opportunity!
    *Grains Bull Market Update!
    *Energy Update, S&P Update

  • THE COPPER JOURNAL
    October 16, 1997 J.E. Gross & Associates, Inc.
    *Leveling off?
    *Where Do We Stand Now?

  • COMMODITY FUTURES FORECAST WEEKLY REPORT
    October 23, 1997 Philip Gotthelf
    *
    The “Crash of '97” has materialized, however, it is in Hong Kong and Asia rather than the United States...for now. China is rapidly losing its grip on its new territory and global repercussions could be significant.

  • INTEREST RATE WATCH
    October 17, 199 7R.J. O'Brien & Associates, Inc.
    *Psychological
    After a week's reflection, the market's gave a big collective yawn to Fed Chairman Greenspan's inflation warning. Although the nation's stock markets declined an approximate 2%, the recent rallies in gold, crude oil and the CRB Index failed; the Dow Jones Utility Index and the U.S. Dollar rallied; and the bond market spent most of the week higher, finishing just slightly lower.

  • NIKKO MARKET COMMENTS
    Prepared by The Nikko Securities Co. International, Inc.
    Outlook For The Week Ended October 24.
    A very light economic calendar is in place for next week. Look for Tuesday's report on September International Trade Deficit to narrow to $10 billion. The Treasury will announce details of the monthly 2-year and 5-year note auctions on Wednesday.

    Copyright 1997, by Consensus Inc.  All American and Pan American rights Reserved. editor@consensus-inc.com

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