IOM JUNE S&P 500 INDEX: Minor trend neutral, major trend down.
Moving Averages"Negative"5-day 793.50, 20-day 802.42;
negative/changing"4-day 796.60, 9-day 795.79, 18-day 802.80; 50-day 800.60.
Oscillators"RSI 48%, stochastic 75/62, MACD !2.05/!0.45.
Resistance"805.80-806.00 ** key daily resistance.
Support"788.00-788.20 ** key daily support.

Technical Indicators"Pivotal area where the next significant price move may begin. Rising daily oscillators warn of an intra-week move higher. Bearish short-term momentum remains in force below minor resistance at the 802.70 area today.

Viewpoint"The market remains in the early stages of a new major downtrend on the daily chart, while longer-term weekly market momentum has recently turned down (bearish). This suggests that a significant move lower is likely to begin from this level and last for the next several weeks. The 802.70 area is important minor resistance today and should loosely contain price on the upside if bearish short-term momentum is to remain valid, but shorts are cautioned above 806.00.

CBOT JUNE TREASURY BONDS: Minor trend down, major trend down. Moving Averages"
Negative"5-day 108.23, 20-day 109.11;
negative/changing"4-day 108.23, 9-day 108.22, 18-day 109.07; 50-day 110.16.
Oscillators"RSI 32%, stochastic 46/49, MACD !0.65/!0.63.
Resistance"109.04-109.07 * key daily resistance.
Support"108.07-108.10 * key daily support.
Technical Indicators"Bullish divergence between price and daily
momentum indicators. Short-term market momentum has now turned down in the June NOB spread (intra-week bullish for June bonds). Rising daily oscillators warn of an intra-week move higher.
Viewpoint"The major daily and weekly trends remain down, and continued lower prices appear to be impending over the next several weeks. However, on an intra-week to weekly basis, our analysis strongly suggests that a corrective rally is impending from this price area. Short-term market momentum is currently neutral, but is one strong session away from turning up (bullish). Watch minor support at the 108.10 are today"it may be the starting point for this corrective rally.

CBOT JUNE FIVE-YEAR NOTE: Minor trend down, major trend down.
Moving Averages"
Negative"5-day 104.29, 20-day 105.11;
negative"4-day 104.28, 9-day 105.01, 18-day 105.10; 50-day 105.29.
Oscillators"RSI 23%, stochastic 26/28, MACD !0.34/!0.30.
Resistance"105020-105040 * key daily resistance.
Support"104210-104225 * key daily support.
Technical Indicators"The market is short-term oversold and warns of a rally. Short-term market momentum remains down below the 105.020 level (important minor resistance). Momentum indicators are testing important support levels.
Viewpoint"The market remains in the midst of a major downtrend on the daily chart, while the longer-term weekly trend appears to have made a new major bearish trend change last week. This portends significantly lower prices over the next several weeks. However, the market is susceptible to an intra-week corrective rally from this price area before continuing lower. Therefore, shorts are cautioned on a rally above minor resistance at the 105.020 level today.

IMM JUNE EURODOLLAR: Minor trend down, major trend down.
Moving Averages"
Negative"5-day 94.05, 20-day 94.14;
negative"4-day 94.05, 9-day 94.09, 18-day 94.13; 50-day 94.23.
Oscillators"RSI 15%, stochastic 11/12, MACD !0.06/!0.05.
Resistance"94.110-94.120 ** key daily resistance.
Support"94.010-94.025 * key daily support.
Technical Indicators"The market is short-term oversold and warns of a rally. Short-term market momentum remains down below the 94.080 level today. Daily momentum levels are testing major support levels.
Viewpoint"The market remains in the midst of a major downtrend on the daily chart. The longer-term weekly chart is in the midst of a large, trendless congestion pattern, however. This trendless environment combined with technically oversold conditions sets up a good technical environment for a corrective rally to occur. The 94.080 area must loosely contain on the upside today in order for bearish short-term momentum to remain valid, but shorts are not advised above 94.120.

MM JUNE BRITISH POUND: Minor trend up, major trend neutral.
Moving Averages"
Positive"5-day .16110, 20-day .16060;
negative/changing"4-day .16163, 9-day .16027, 18-day .16038; 50-day .16200.
Oscillators"RSI 67%, stochastic 96/90, MACD !0.26/!0.65.
Resistance"16390-16398 *** key daily resistance.
Support"16076-16084 * key daily support.
Technical Indicators"Pivotal area where the next significant price move may begin. The 5-20 day moving averages have now turned up (bullish). Bullish divergence between price and daily momentum indicators. A new major bullish trend change may be beginning here. Viewpoint"The market closed well above major daily resistance at the 1.6196 level yesterday (which represents its 50-day moving average). This warns that a new major bullish trend change may be occurring on the daily chart, but this has not yet been confirmed by daily momentum indicators. The market remains in an ideal technical environment for the longer-term (and dominant) major weekly trend to resume over the next 1-3 weeks.

IMM JUNE DEUTSCHEMARK: Minor trend up, major trend down.
Moving Averages"
Positive"5-day .5954, 20-day .5931;
positive/changing"4-day .5956, 9-day .5961, 18-day .5928; 50-day .6037.
Oscillators"RSI 49%, stochastic 41/49, MACD !20.69/!33.71.
Resistance"6016-6020 *** key daily resistance.
Support"5882-5886 ** key daily support.
Technical Indicators"Declining daily oscillators warn of an intra-week move lower. Pivotal area where the next significant price move may begin. Short-term market momentum is currently neutral.
Viewpoint"The market remains in the midst of a minor corrective rally within the current major downtrend on the daily chart. The recent rally has taken the market close to a test of major resistance at the .6037 area (its 50-day moving average). Combined with currently topping/declining daily oscillators, this sets up an ideal technical environment for the major downtrend to resume (if still valid and in force). Downside penetration of .5882 would confirm that this has occurred.

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Last updated on 04-17-97

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