The Dow followed the 60-year cycle perfectly with a March 11 high. the ideal top from 1937 was due March 10, not too shabby. At least it was so for the Dow which made first high on February 19, then new higher high on March 11. Cash S&P also has a double top except that its highest high was made on February 19 followed by a failed lower high on March 11. The lower 2nd top was even more apparent in June '97 S&P futures which had a more extreme price breakdown than in the March contract.

After the March highs, the intervening low between the two highs was taken out when prices broke down below both 21-day and 42-day moving averages, setting off a sell signal. Many of the money managers and brokerage house perma-bulls interviewed on CNBC are of course, in denial but it is clear technically that at least a correction has begun. The extent of the decline is not known now but the air-pockets that remain below from such a steep ascent from last July's low should give thought to the bulls.

Do you remember what the prices were in all the stock averages just 8 months ago at the July '96 lows? Try the Dow at 5182, cash S&P 605.88, OEX 582.86, NASDAQ 1006 (144x7). Consider this: We have not had a major correction in 6<$E1/2> years. A normal 50% retracement of the range from July '96 low to February '97 high in the Cash S&P is 711. A 15% correction from the high takes us down to 894. The Dow low in 1990 was 2344. Believe it or not, a 50% correction of the range from the 1990 low to 1997 March high, 4767 would not break the long-term uptrend on the 45-degree angle of a monthly Dow chart. Note: 2344x3=7032, just below our March high. Crash low in '87=1616x3-4848, just 80 points higher than midpoint of '90 low to '97 high at 4767!
The Dow Jones Utility Average is a story by itself. It made low at the end of July at 203.32 and topped on January 24, '97 at 243.29. The DJUA has spent most of March below its weekly moving averages. While Dow was making new highs on March 11, Dow Utilities were making new weekly lows. The Utility Average has an historic record of being a harbinger of things to come, a natural leading indicator; the first to bottom in bear trends and the first to top in a bull trend. Everything may be different this time around in the stock market, but there are some things that don't change and this Average appears to be one of them.

Anniversary Dates For
Dow Jones In April

LO"April 4, 1994 3 years***
LO"April 6, 1983 14 years****
LO"April 6, 1984 13 years***
LO"April 6, 1993 4 years***
HI"April 7, 1987 10 years*****
LO"April 8, 1992 5 years***
LO"April 9, 1956 41 years***
HI"April 13, 1988 9 years****
HI"April 14, 1986 11 years***
HI"April 17, 1991 6 years***
HI"April 27, 1981 16 years***
LO"April 27, 1987 10 years***
LO"April 28, 1971 26 years***
HI"April 28, 1942 55 years
LO"April 30, 1990 7 years****

Note the 10-year high on April 7, also 5-year on April 8. Strong Fibonacci sequence in years: 3, 5, 13 and 55. The prevailing trend in April should be down with little bounces that end in new lows. In March we had one !160 day close; in April we can have several of these high momentum days, especially since the new additions to the Dow.

Focus On Financials

As we go to press, T-bonds have been declining slowly but steadily since their last rally high on February 18, '97. The next lower support level is the 104/105 level that could be met during April. The daily momentum oscillators are entering lower levels due to the unrelenting downtrend and may get oversold during this month. Entering last week in March, daily oscillators are at 30 and 19. Prices are trading below weekly oscillators. Hourly oscillators have been rising as prices moved to the plus side but they must also come down hard into single digit status before this market can sustain any kind of meaningful reversal. Hold all short futures and puts but be prepared to cover futures on drastic drop to 104 level during the month.

Anniversary Dates For
T-Bonds And T-Bills In April

LO"April 2, 1993 4 years***
HI"April 15, 1977 20 years****
HI"April 16, 1976 21 years***
HI"April 17, 1986 11 years**
HI"April 17, 1991 6 years***
HI"April 21, 1978 19 years**
HI"April 24, 1979 18 years****
LO"April 26, 1990 7 years****
LO"April 28, 1992 5 years****

Bonds seem to peak right near tax deadline time. There are 6 anniversaries within a week of April 15 so it must mean something and we should watch carefully as we do have a Ganntimer due on one of those dates. But we do have 4 Ganntimers due for the month which means lots of volatility in a choppy market. If we rally up into April 2, you can add to your positions on strength.

Soybean Update

July soybeans did very well during most of March, gapping up to new high 869 and we do have resistance there although I'm not too happy to see that gap unfilled on the upside. If it is not filled rather quickly with a new high, it can become an exhaustion gap and we most assuredly don't want to see that. On the positive side, the weekly chart still looks very good despite the outside week to the downside. The lows rested on strong angle support while the high was stopped first by angle resistance. If we can hold the range of week ending March 21, we can and probably will do so. We could be running out of time this month as week ending April 4 is 20 weeks from the November 12, '96 soybean low.

Anniversary Dates For
Soybeans In April

HI"April 1, 1993 4 years***
LO"April 2, 1980 17 years***
HI"April 4, 1975 22 years****
HI"April 8, 1981 16 years***
LO"April 8, 1992 5 years***
LO"April 9, 1976 21 years***
HI"April 11, 1983 14 years****
LO"April 15, 1954 43 years**
HI"April 22, 1977 20 years*****
LO"April 22, 1994 3 years**
HI"April 23, 1982 15 years*****
HI"April 25, 1985 12 years*****
HI"April 25, 1996 2 years***
LO"April 26, 1988 9 years****
HI"April 30, 1986 11 years****

Two very powerfully documented cycles that affect crops are the 22- and 11-year sun spot cycles which alternate extremes of rain and drought caused by sun spots or the lack of them. Our Ganntimers are pointing to dates from April 15 as potential highs.

Trading Strategy: Protective stops on July contracts should be below the two major moving averages below 818 or below 792. But because of that nasty gap I recommend closer stops. A stop below 817, the weekly low should protect nice profits. If we should be falling into April 18/21 there is a channel of two 45-degree angles on the weekly chart 770/780 basis July. If you were stopped out, a good place to get back in futures. If we are rising into Ganntimer dates, sell all futures and call on strength and pick up a few puts also.

Precious Metals Update

The divergence between gold and silver continued in March with silver still out-pacing gold handily. The bottom is still intact in July silver with a nice rounding shape and prices trading sideways and holding above the daily moving averages. Silver oscillators are also holding their bullish rising pattern. But June gold is another story. After breaking out on the daily and weekly charts, it has been backing down below its daily moving averages, although not seriously but searching for the 2nd higher bottom to complete the double-bottom process. And April is just the month to do it.

Anniversary Dates For
Gold In April

LO"April 1, 1986 11 years***
LO"April 2, 1976 21 years***
HI"April 4, 1994 3 years**
HI"April 9, 1971 25 years****
LO"April 12, 1974 23 years**
HI"April 14, 1982 15 years****
HI"April 15, 1985 12 years *****
LO"April 16, 1979 18 years****
LO"April 18, 1975 22 years****
HI"April 18, 1983 14 years****
LO"April 20, 1973 24 years****
LO"April 22, 1994 3 years***
LO"April 25, 1978 19 years**
HI"April 27, 1987 10 years*****
LO"April 29, 1991 6 years****

There are 9 major lows that were made in April, many during the very bullish decade of the 1970's, so this April may be just right for the 2nd higher bottom to form. There's a new moon on the 7th that may help. Stops on June futures may have been taken out at the 356 level, but if you are still in, stops below 350 are in order but hold onto your call positions. They are easier to trade. Hold positions in July silver with stops below 517. Follow the Ganntimers closely during the month.

Ganntimer Date Projections

April 2: IBM"90CD from January 2 low; 180TD from July 24 major low; 120CD from December 3 high.
April 2: HM Mining"180CD from October 3 high; 288CD from June 7
high.
April 2: Swiss Franc"90CD from January 2 high.
April 2: T-Bonds And Eurodollars"180CD from October 4 high; 120CD from December 3 major high.
April 2: Stock Index"180CD from October 10 low; 90CD from January 2 low; 180TD from July 24 '96 low; 288CD from June 18 low. April 2: D-Mark"90CD from January 2 high.
April 3: Sugar"90CD from January 3 high; 180TD from July 23 low. April 4/7: Coffee"90CD from January 6 MMTM low; 120CD from December 6 low; 120TD from October 18 low. New moon on 7th.
April 4/7: Japanese Yen"90CD from January 7 high; 288TD from February 27, '96 high; 360CD from April 11 low.
April 4/7: Pork Bellies"180CD from October 9 high; 240CD from August 8 major new high.
April 4/7: British Pound"180CD from October 8 high; 180TD from July 29 high.
April 4/7: HM Mining"90CD from January 6 low; 144CD from November 13 high; 270CD from July 10 high.
April 7/8: Silver"180CD from October 10 high; 90CD from January 6 low; 90TD from December 3 low.
April 8: Gold"180CD from October 10 high.
April 8: Energy Group"180CD from October 10 low; 180TD from July 30 low.
April 9: Corn"90CD from January 9 low. No cluster but still good.
April 9/10: Platinum"180CD from October 10 high; 90CD from January 10 high; 180TD from August 1 high.
April 10: Eurodollars"90CD from January 10 low; 240CD from August 13 high.
April 10/11: Japanese Yen"180CD from October 13 low; 270TD from
March 28, '96 high.
April 11/14: Lumber"180CD from October 15 high; 90CD from January 3 high; 144CD from November 20 low; 144TD from September 23 major low; 288CD from June 28, '96 D.B. low; 120CD from December 13 low. Big one.
April 15: Energy Group"90CD from January 15 low; 144CD from November 22 high; 120CD from December 16 high.
April 15: Live Cattle"90CD from January 15 high; 180TD from August 6 high; 90TD from December 10 low.
April 15: Silver"90CD from January 15 low.
April 15: D-Mark"180CD from October 17 low; 144TD from September 25 high.
April 15/16: Cotton"90CD from January 15 high; 180TD from August 7 low.
April 16: T-Bonds"90CD from January 16 high; 120CD from December 17 low.
April 16: HM Mining"180CD from October 18 low.
April 16: Coffee"180CD from October 18 low; 270CD from July 22
major low.
April 16: Lumber"90CD from January 16 low.
April 1997 Gann Angles