wmeubank@ocp.kcmo.com
TRIESTER ON THE MARKETS-OSPREY TRADING
111 Presidential Blvd., Ste. 230, Bala Cynwyd, PA
(March 28, 1997)
ENERGY COMPLEX:
The oil and gas slumped sharply this week. The crude touched $22.30,
closing at $22.10. Prices have recovered in March. The buying from overseas
and domestic demand has put the bull in control. The commercials are long
in the market and the intermediate trend now south. This means that a nice
rise was expected. We had bought at the $21 level. We stay in the bull
camp. The last decline took the market to $19.90. The probability of success
here was 3.0:1. The oil complex is rising up now as March is with is as
we had forecast. The API statistics have shown a fall of 1.2-million barrels
in crude stock, which is mildly positive. The Commitment of Traders is
slightly positive as specs are long. We saw a plunge this week as expected.
We want to focus on the May crude contract. We hope you bought the heating
oil or natural gas which rallied as we had foretold. Stay tuned. The last
report showed a 5-mil barrel drawdown in stocks. These markets are coming
into fair value zones. The large down move has completed and recovery is
occurring. Commercials and locals are staying long and hurting the spec
shorts. This bodes for somewhat higher prices. Enjoy the profits from this
one as we were indeed patient. The heating oil is moving back as it has
fallen off by 220 points this week on nice volume. The oil market is twitchy
about any Middle East disruptions or conflict. Fundamentals are neutral
here. We see that the supply is not the talk of the floor anymore. The
situation has calmed in the Middle East for now. The levels to watch are
21.50 up and 19.70 down. We see these determining the trend move. May Crude
Oil"Position: Close 20.64.
David E. Triester
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