COMMODITY INSIGHT
152 Ennis Lake Road, Ennis, Montana
(March 23, 1997)
SOFTS:
With the Federal Reserve on the verge of raising rates this week, a more conservative approach to the markets should be employed, especially the tropicals and the energy complex.
This past week, for instance, cocoa, energy prices and coffee all ended
on a weak note. Such disappointing late-week price action suggests further
weakness in the days to come. Try to remain bullish for the long run but
keep in mind that a move by the Fed to tighten rates could be the news
that brings a break for many markets.
If a hard break comes about, we will once again attempt long positions
in cocoa, coffee and the energy complex. But between now and the Fed's
meeting early this week, one should use caution when long any market. The
Fed will raise rates with the hope of keeping a lid on prices. Such strategy
will eventually prove successful. Jerry F. Welch
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