wmeubank@ocp.kcmo.com
COMMODITY REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
195 Route 6A, Suite 6, Orleans, Massachusetts
(March 26, 1997)
SOYBEANS:
Beans remain the leader as the grains move their way higher, but the
failure to hold new highs has some traders wary. Exports have been excellent,
and it is likely that the USDA report will be favorable to old-crop beans,
possibly negative to new-crop beans. However, this isn't a secret, and
much of the news may be factored into the prices. As has been the case
for the entire move, fund buying will probably be the prime mover. Keep
in mind, if this report is bullish, we still have Brazil to contend with.
While shipping delays may tend to provide support, the beans are still
there. It was also reported that Brazilian producers have sold a record
amount of their crop, 47% versus a normal 30% average to take advantage
of current high prices. This could mean a short-term break with new highs
later in the year. The market will be very attentive to weather problems
all year, so long-term traders should take advantage of dips to buy calls.
Aggressive traders might buy July beans in the mid-low 830's with stops
under 817 or of 10-30 cents. The November chart is currently not encouraging.
but is near support. Long-term traders might consider buying November beans.
but be alert for undue weakness, as a break to near 690 can't be counted
out.
M. Stephen Morgan
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Last updated on 04-14-97
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