wmeubank@ocp.kcmo.com
TRIESTER ON THE MARKETS-OSPREY TRADING
111 Presidential Blvd., Ste. 230, Bala Cynwyd, PA
(March 28, 1997)
INTEREST RATES:
The bond market met support at the 108-04 level again. We have seen a rate hike by the market at the present time. The tape tells us the trend is now downward. The decline, which lasted several months, continues for now. The close today was 108-15, 7.5 points off the recent highs of 116-16. The sell off has continued and a two-day move below 109-20 did cause a fall to 110-16. The intermediate-term trend is now neutral. The durable goods numbers are the latest economic readings. They have showed a bit of improvement. We see a long bond yield in the area of 7.00% at present. The Fed Chairman's talks produced no cheer this month, but this has pushed down the bonds in a nice panic. Some locals died trying to buy the dips before this and paid the price with large losses. The Osprey Intermediate-Term Model is still negative here since 109-20 was breached on a two-day close basis. Some fundamentals point to lower bonds due to inflationary fears in the public. This interest rate sell off could be a real sleeper over the next three months. The Eurodollars are now in a down trend with a close of 94.03 in June Eurodollars. The CRB Index of 27 commodities has rallied up as grains soared and metals came out of a spiral down. A close below 94.10 did turn the short-term negative and give a Eurodollar sell signal for the June Eurodollars. The market remains lower this week as well. This has been a good trending month so far in March 1997. The players have been rewarded if they were short in the March drop up of 2.5 points. Let's look to buy long lower as the fallout ends next week after the numbers are all out.
June T-Bonds"Position: Close 108.15 !5.
June Eurodollars"Position: Close 94.03-4.
David E. Triester
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