Latest Week	Latest Month
			vs.     vs.	vs.	   vs.
		 Same Week Previous	Same Month Previous
		 Last Year     Week     Last Year  Month
Total Sales	  6.8%		—1.2%	7.5%	  —0.5%
Same-Store Sales  4.1%		—0.7%	4.5%	   0.1%

The total-store average in the second week of September fell to 6.8% from 8.1% the previous week. The month to date was 0.5% below August, measurably short of our retailer target, which calls for September to be flat against August.

With one or two exceptions, retailers in Redbook's sample reported results below expectations. Most appeared to be at the lower end of their monthly targets for the first two weeks, and some said they were scaling back plans based on performance to date. Redbook adjusted its forecast downward and now expects September to end 0.3% below August, instead of unchanged.

Retailers struggled to find reasons for the demonstrably softer tone of the week. The weather was cited as an explanation of last resort, with unseasonable warmth over much of the country reported depressing demand for fall apparel, a mainstay of the current cycle. For one group, this factor was intensified by unseasonable cold at the same time last year, which put a spike in fall apparel sales, making year-over-year comparisons tougher.

Some retailers said the lull indicated that the back-to- school season had peaked, although one noted specifically that back-to-school categories led the week itself, and other say its effects will continue to be felt into October. For discount stores, which as a group showed the largest percentage decline over the week, the biweekly payroll cycle may also have played a role.

Leading merchandise categories for the week varied according to store speciality, but included apparel (across the board, with possible emphasis on women's better and children's), electronics and home goods.

The same-store average for the latest week was 4.1%, and the same-store month-to-month gain was 0.1%. September is a five-week month on the retail calendar, ending October 4.

Retailer target is the weighted mean of the sales growth targets set by Redbook's retailer sample at month-opening, and remains fixed for the duration of the month. Redbook forecast is updated weekly, except in the final week.

		Retailers Target	Redbook Forecast
		Yr-on-Yr  Mth-to-Mth	Yr-on-Yr  Mth-to-Mth
Total Sales	  +8.0%		n.c	+7.7%		n.c
Same-Store Sales  +4.7%		+0.4%	+4.6%		+0.2%

September 16, 1997 Redbook Research

A Division of Lynch, Jones, & Ryan, Inc.

Consensus National Futures and Financial On Line Index

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