COFFEE QUARTERLY OUTLOOK
Prepared by Prudential Securities, Inc.
Overview
After reaching highs near $3.20 per pound at the end of May, coffee futures came under sharp downside pressure, surrendering roughly one-third of their value in about seven weeks. Since mid-July, the price action has become more two-sided, but values remain far below their May peak.
The market's price behavior this summer mirrored a "classic" seasonal pattern: Coffee futures tend to advance early in the year in anticipation of frost-induced Brazilian crop damage, but then retreat during the Brazilian winter, which runs July-August. (Of course, this pattern assumes that no crop-damaging freeze actually occurs.) Reinforcing the price decline were bearish 1997/98 production forecasts for several major origins and the general view that earlier fears regarding the availability of Milds in the U.S. market had been exaggerated. The shift in tightness perceptions was reflected in the December/March spread, which ranged from 7 cents to 23 cents December premium during this period. (We must stress that tightness concerns have been mostly a feature of the futures market, with cash traders on both sides of the Atlantic taking a far more sanguine view of the matter.) During much of August, the December/March spread narrowed again. The movement probably reflected, at least in part, waning (and probably the season's last) concerns over Brazilian weather as well as settlement of a potentially disruptive Colombian truck driver strike.
As always, the size of the Brazilian coffee crop is a major talking point for the market. On June 12, the USDA forecast the country's 1997/98 outturn at 28 million bags, up from the previous season's production of 27.5 million. Meanwhile, the Hamburg-based trade firm Bernhard Rothfos expects production to be around 25 million bags, down from the previous season's estimated output of 29 million. Brazil's agriculture minister has projected the 1997/98 crop at 23 million to 25 million bags, with some Brazilian trade sources projecting even lower numbers. We are using 25-26 million bags as our working figure for Brazil's 1997/98 production.
The USDA's initial forecast of Colombia's 1997/98 output is 11.3 million bags, up from the year-ago level of 10.3 million, which was the country's 20-year production low. Colombia's improved production prospects contributed to the futures market's weaker tone in June and early July.
Clearly, this year's El Nino is a potentially bullish development for the coffee futures market. It is the strongest since 1982/83 and, according to some weather specialists, could develop into the longest on record. Depending on its severity and duration, this phenomenon has the potential to hurt coffee production in some areas of the world, with the damage (if any) most likely appearing in statistics for 1998/99.
The more aggressive export pace of 1996/97 and 1997/98 is expected to lead to a shift in the relative disposition of global coffee stocks. According to USDA projections, end-1997/98 producer- controlled stocks will fall to about 20 million bags from the year- earlier level of 26 million. Stocks held in importer countries are forecast by Bernhard Rothfos to expand by about 2 million bags, to near 14 million, during the 1997/98 season.
We anticipate that roaster buying interest will pick up in late September or early October, which would be supportive for the futures market. During this period, the market will become increasingly sensitive to any news (such as weather-related problems) that might either disrupt harvesting progress in Latin American origins or delay the movement of Milds to the U.S. market. Problems of this type during the fourth quarter would be potentially bullish for both outright futures prices and futures spreads.
Global 1997/98 Supply/Use Outlook
World 1997/98 coffee production is forecast by the USDA to reach 103.7 million bags, up roughly 3% from the previous year, and virtually equal to the all-time production record set in 1991/92. The increase versus 1996/97 reflects expectations of broadly based production expansion in several origins, affecting both arabica and robusta coffee. This expansion contrasts with some previous year-on-year global increases, which were mainly attributable to expanded output in one or two leading producer nations.
Consumption in producer countries is projected to reach a record 26.1 million bags in 1997/98, about 4% above the year-earlier level. Consumption held steady during the 1970's and 1980's, but picked up sharply in the 1990's and appears to be accelerating. In 1970/71, consumption was 19.4 million bags and had risen to just 21 million bags by the end of the 1980's. In the current decade, consumption rose to 22.2 million bags in 1990/91 and reached an impressive 25 million bags in 1996/97. Including the 1997/98 forecast, average consumption since 1993/94 has grown by almost 1% annually.
Coffee bean exports are forecast at 80.0 million bags in 1997/98. This figure is the highest since 1989/90 and builds on last year's extremely high level of 78.5 million bags. The aggressive marketing pace over the last two years was a response to the low export levels of 1994/95 and 1995/96, when importer nations were relatively more dependent on their own inventories.
Producer stocks for year-end 1997/98 are projected at 20 million bags, 23% less then a year ago and the smallest stocks figure for the 28-year period. The 1996/97 stocks figure of 26 million bags represented a decline of roughly 20% versus the previous season. The pronounced stocks decline is a function of a more aggressive global export pace. The USDA's data do not include a separate category for stocks held in importer nations. The German trade firm Bernhard Rothfos projects importer stocks (as of October 1) at 11.9 million bags (equal to 8.2 weeks of consumption), and expects these stocks to grow to about 14 million by October 1998.
Producer Overview
The cumulative production of the world's 12 major origins, ranked on the basis of 1997/98 production forecasts, accounts for roughly 80% of global coffee output. By far the leading origin is Brazil, which produces about 27% of the world's coffee; Colombia is a distant second, accounting for about 11% of world output. Only Indonesia and Ivory Coast (both predominantly robusta producers) are expected to see production decline in 1997/98 versus the previous year.
Three of the countries (Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras) are in Central America, a major source of quality grades for the U.S. market. The region's 1996/97 output is estimated at 12.5 million bags, and is forecast at 13.0 million in 1997/98. The anticipated increase reflects beneficial rains earlier this year, which induced strong early flowering, as well as more productive farming practices that were made possible by attractive international price levels. (In some areas, for instance, lower-quality beans that might otherwise have been left in the fields are likely to be harvested for the domestic market, raising the availability of export-quality beans. Also, higher prices tend to persuade farmers to harvest their coffee more frequently and more selectively so as to raise the proportion of premium-grade beans.) The unfolding El Nino, however, is causing some of the region's coffee specialists to worry about potentially adverse weather conditions, which could alter the initial, optimistic production outlook.
Central America's expected production increase in 1997/98 is not automatically good news for the U.S. market, where the tightness in quality Milds helped trigger this year's surge in futures prices. One reason is that some of the region's producers are marketing more of their coffee to the European Union. Also, exceptionally aggressive marketings early this year have reduced Central American inventories to very low levels, and it could be that some producers will be persuaded to stabilize or raise their stock levels rather than automatically seek to boost exports.
Harvesting in Costa Rica begins in late July/early August, but the rest of the region generally does not get underway until late September/early October. This means that coffee flows from Central America will not hit their full stride until very late in the year, which could help keep alive U.S. traders' tightness concerns for much of the fourth quarter, especially if any of the region's producers were to encounter weather-related harvesting delays.
Another crucial source of coffee for the U.S. market is Mexico, whose 1997/98 output is forecast at a record 5.7 million bags, roughly 2% above the year-ago level. The USDA's forecast takes into account various federal and state support programs, which are expected to raise output over the long term by enabling farmers to use more productive (i.e., higher-yielding and disease-resistant) coffee varieties.
As a result of this year's exceptionally strong export pace, Mexican stocks are projected to decline to virtually zero by end-1996/97. The impending domestic tightness has prompted Mexico's government to authorize the importation of at least 150,000 bags of green coffee later this year. The action has met with opposition from Mexican farmers, but has been defended by the Secretary of Agriculture, who noted that imports would be restricted to robusta coffee (by contrast, Mexico is an arabica producer) and would take place during the inter-harvest period, thus helping the country's coffee-processing sector.
Indonesia
Indonesia is the world's foremost robusta producer, accounting for approximately 18% of total robusta output. The USDA is forecasting 1997/98 output at 6.8 million bags, down 10% from the previous year. The drop is due to not only adverse weather conditions in the provinces of Bengkulu, Lampung and South Sumatra (where normally about half the country's coffee originates) but also the downturn in East Java's growing cycle. (In early July, an official of the Indonesian Coffee Exporters Association stated that crop losses versus a year ago could be as high as 40%.) This would be only the third time since 1989/90 that Indonesian output has failed to exceed 7.0 million bags. Spot availability problems (accentuated, some traders believe, by farmer hoarding) have strengthened Indonesian differentials, with EK1 Grade 4 beans quoted about even with London September futures (as of mid-August); they were at a discount of $100-$150 per tonne in mid-July and a discount of $150-$200 in late June.
Indonesia's availability problems have helped its chief regional rival, Vietnam, whose new-crop sales are running ahead of the year-ago level. In contrast to Indonesia, Vietnam is expected to raise 1997/98 output by almost 20% versus the previous season, extending a production surge that has propelled it to fifth place among the world's coffee origins. In 1980/81, Vietnam produced a mere 77,000 bags of coffee. Output had risen to 985,000 bags by 1989/90, and is forecast at 5 million bags in 1997/98. According to local trade sources, Vietnam could bring its 1997/98 harvest forward by one month (to September) should favorable weather conditions continue.
Brazil
The USDA has forecast Brazil's 1997/98 output at 28 million bags (including 23 million arabica and 5 million robusta) versus a 27.5-million-bag crop in 1996/97. The new season's projection would be a three-year high, but well below the record harvests of the mid- and late-1980's. Exportable production (defined as production minus domestic consumption) was projected at 16 million bags for 1997/98, down from 16.5 million in 1996/97, and the lowest such figure since 1994/95.
The USDA's 28-million-bag forecast has been rejected by Brazilian governmental and private sources as unrealistically high. Indeed, the country's agriculture minister has projected the 1997/98 crop at 23-25 million bags, and the trade firm Tristao expects 25.6 million. Meanwhile, confirmation (of sorts) has come via a former U.S. agricultural attache (now working as a private consultant), who reportedly is looking for a 1997/98 crop of 28.6 million bags. While a large discrepancy between production forecasts made by the USDA and Brazilian sources is nothing new, this year's USDA number has been particularly controversial because the current U.S. agricultural attache projected Brazil's 1997/98 harvest at 24 million bags in a report dated May 9 and released in early July. Some Brazilian sources claimed this had cost the USDA "credibility," and the London-based Association of Coffee Producing Countries (ACPC) called on the USDA to explain the "significant difference" between the two forecasts.
A major reason for the 4-million-bag difference is that the attache gave substantial weight to the downturn in the coffee trees' biannual production cycle that will occur in 1997/98. The USDA's June World Agricultural Production report downplayed the significance of the two-year bearing cycle, noting that its impact had been weakened given: (1) greater use of new coffee tree varieties; (2) expanded use of irrigation and (3) a shift toward higher tree planting densities.
Rainfall over much of Brazil's coffee belt was reported to be about five times the normal level from mid-May to late June, slowing harvesting and raising quality questions in parts of Parana, Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais. (In contrast, growing conditions in Espirito Santo, the chief robusta producer, were characterized as ideal.) Irregular weather patterns induced multiple flowerings and caused uneven maturation of the beans. (In some areas of Minas Gerais, where two to three flowerings are the norm, farmers reported seeing about six flowerings.) Thus, there are quality concerns, but the problem's scope remains unclear as we go to press. Harvesting conditions in July and August were generally judged to be excellent.
Exports for the first half of 1997 were reported at 7.6 million bags, about twice the year-ago figure, and well above the ACPC's 6-million bag export ceiling. Commenting on this, an official with the Brazilian Federation of Coffee Exporters noted that an aggressive marketing pace was justified given Brazil's financial climate. In view of the country's high interest rates, he declared: "Hoarding stocks is a crime."
Brazil's July exports have been provisionally reported at only 916,598 bags, by far the year's smallest monthly figure and the first time in 1997 that monthly exports fell below the year-ago level. With 1997/98 exportable production forecast to fall from year-ago levels, it seems likely that monthly exports have seen their peak for the year, and will now remain near, or below, the monthly levels reported in the second half of 1996. We view this development as a potentially long-range, price-supportive factor.
A spokesman for Brazil's Soluble Coffee Industry Association (ABICS) has projected his country's 1997 soluble coffee exports at 57,500 tonnes versus 1996 exports of 58,000 tonnes. ABICS has long complained that despite an expanded global soluble coffee market, Brazil was losing its competitive edge due to high domestic raw coffee prices and the European Union's 10.1% import tariff. (Several of Brazil's Latin competitors enjoy tariff-free access to the EU market on the basis that this assists them in their struggle against the illicit drug trade.) ABICS has stated that, in the absence of other measures (e.g., the sale of government-controlled stocks), it intends to import robusta coffee on a drawback basis, and governmental spokesmen have indicated there is no legal barrier to such imports. Despite the government's cooperative attitude, however, it remains to be seen whether Brazil's coffee processors will find imports an economically viable option, given earlier unsuccessful attempts to import robusta coffee from India.
Colombia
After falling to a 20-year production low of 10.3 million bags in 1996/97, Colombian output is expected to recover to about 11.3 million bags in 1997/98. The brighter production prospects are attributable to more favorable weather conditions and the increasing use of high-yield plant material. Also, more attractive prices have encouraged growers to improve their crop husbandry practices. However, the outlook could change given a late-August comment by the general manager of the country's National Coffee Growers Federation that El Nino-related problems could hurt 1997/98 output. The USDA anticipates that Colombia's coffee output will remain within a range of 11-13 million bags for several years, with producer prices likely to be the main determinant of annual production (unless adverse weather intervenes).
Although coffee harvesting is a year-round activity in Colombia, there are two principal harvesting periods. The major one generally takes place from September to December, while the secondary one usually runs from March to May. This year, weather problems shifted the secondary harvest to April-June, resulting in higher-than-normal exports during this period.
Despite its anticipation that Colombia's 1997/98 production will exceed the year-ago level by about 1 million bags, the USDA is forecasting the year's exports to come in about 200,000 bags below the estimated 1996/97 export level of 11 million bags. Export availability has been reduced by a significant drop in stocks, with end-season supplies falling to an estimated 4.1 million bags in 1996/97 from 6.3 million bags in 1995/96; they are expected to be down to 3.1 million in 1997/98.
Colombia's weekly domestic coffee price is keyed to the lowest world price over the previous 10 days. Colombian producers are protesting this national pricing mechanism on the grounds that it leaves them vulnerable to world price fluctuations. (Their protests, of course, are loudest during periods of price weakness.) Some producer representatives are demanding a minimum price guarantee or a mechanism under which producer prices would be changed infrequently. The country's finance minister intends to address this matter in September, though we doubt his reforms will go far enough to satisfy the critics. The issue is complicated by the fact that some segments of the Colombian coffee market are pressing for a sharp reduction in the premium that is added to the official export price; a reduction in the premium would result in lower farmer prices.
El Nino
This section examines the possible impact an El Nino may have on various coffee-growing regions and on global coffee output. Although the jury is out with regard to the probable duration of this year's El Nino, weather specialists agree that it is the strongest since 1982/83, making that year the best point of comparison with the current situation. Because there is relatively less crop-year uniformity for the major coffee origins than is the case for several other markets, the impact of an El Nino is less clear cut. In some instances, an El Nino may not affect output directly, but rather cause harvesting disruptions and bean quality problems. Broadly speaking, we expect overall robusta production to be more adversely affected by an El Nino than arabica output.
Anticipated Regional Effects
In Central America, the phenomenon associated with an El Nino is dryness, which may last over much of the region from July through the early harvest period in late September to early October. The region is a principal source of arabica coffee for the United States, and if significant crop losses occur, that development should support price futures, especially in light of the prevailing relatively tight U.S. availability of quality grades.
In Colombia, another major source of quality arabicas, some of the more southern coffee- growing areas may see excessive rainfall beginning in late 1997, which has the potential to interrupt harvesting and hurt output. Also, there is concern that a possible increase in ultraviolet rays due to unusually clear skies in some areas could hurt flowering, and hence output, during the next year in parts of the country. Neighboring Ecuador also could see excessive rainfall, beginning about November, by which time harvesting has usually been completed. Early arrival of the rains, however, could trim production.
Unusually heavy rain (early in the year) also is a potential problem for parts of Brazil's coffee belt. Indeed, some areas reported five times the normal precipitation level between mid-March and mid-June this year. The wet weather has caused harvesting delays and concern that bean quality may have suffered.
In West Africa, strong El Ninos tend to produce dryness that begins in August and has the potential to hurt the region's robusta production. (Harvesting in the leading regional origin, Ivory Coast, runs roughly October-March.) In parts of East Africa, an El Nino is linked to excessive rainfall that may last from October through April and hurt output. East Africa's chief origins include Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania (which are mostly arabica producers) as well as Uganda, an important robusta source.
In Asia, El Nino-related production losses are potentially substantial in Indonesia, the world's foremost robusta producer, whose crop year begins in April. In an El Nino year, the country may experience drought from June to November, a condition that also could hurt robusta production in nearby Vietnam. Philippine output also could be adversely affected. Finally, in India, which grows arabica and robusta types, excessive rainfall in southern areas (generally October-December) may interrupt harvesting and cause quality problems.
1997/98 Production Forecasts
Table 4 shows seasonal coffee output for leading origins whose coffee- growing areas could be hurt by an El Nino. The table includes the USDA's initial forecasts of 1997/98 output, which were released in the June Tropical Products: World Markets and Trade report. The forecasts have not taken possible El Nino effects into account and thus serve as a useful benchmark of anticipated production levels if no El Nino-related crop damage materializes.
Table 4
Leading Coffee-Growing Areas
Potentially Affected By An El Nino
(1,000 60-kg Bags)

Source-USDA
Only two of the countries in Table 4, Ivory Coast and Indonesia, are expected to see production decline in 1997/98, falling 18.5% and 10.5%, respectively, versus 1996/97 levels. Thus, if the current El Nino hurts production in these two countries, the severity will be magnified because the crops already were expected to be low.
Potential El Nino Impact On World Production
Figure 6 depicts world seasonal coffee production since 1960/61 and covers eight El NiNo events (not including the current one).2 The strongest El NiNo, 1982/83, resulted in a 9% decline (about 5 million bags) in 1983/84 global coffee production (Brazil excluded). The other "strong" El NiNo was in 1972/73, which was followed by a global production drop of roughly 1 million bags (2%) in 1973/74. Two El NiNos classified as being above "moderate" strength occurred in 1965 and 1992; world coffee output fell by about 2 million bags (5%) and 4 million (6%) in 1966/67 and 1993/94, respectively. The other El Nino events in this period were classified as having moderate or below-moderate strength, and had no discernible crop impact.

If the El Nino that began in April 1997 has the comparable impact of the 1982/93 episode (its most similar predecessor), then 1998/99 global production (Brazil excluded) may be expected to fall about 9% versus 1997/98 levels. (The USDA is forecasting Brazil's 1997/98 output at 28.0 million bags; a 9% production drop for non-Brazil production would result in a total global 1997/98 production figure of about 96.0 million bags.)
Quarterly Coffee Export Availability
An overview of coffee availability from individual origins is provided in Table 5. The table is based on statistical information developed by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), which defines availability for export as exportable production (in a given crop year) plus accumulated stocks from previous years. Be aware that the percentages shown in the table are only approximate, and may vary from year to year due to harvesting delays or other changing local conditions.

Crop years for the world's coffee-growing countries begin on April 1, July 1 or October 1. Broadly speaking, origins north of the equator open their crop year in October, while those in the southern hemisphere tend to have crop years beginning in April. The ICO defines the international coffee year as running October-September.
World Coffee Exports
World coffee exports were up about 12% in the 12 months ended in June compared to the same period a year earlier, mainly due to a 50% increase in exports of Brazil and Other Arabicas. However, the relatively slow export pace for Milds continues to be of concern to U.S. traders, and partially explains the late July run-up in U.S. coffee futures prices.
Of the 12 leading exporter nations, six Latin American origins (excluding Brazil), produce coffee that may be tendered against New York futures. The June exports of these six countries were reported at 1.8 million bags, roughly 5% below the year-ago figure. Preliminary July data for some of these countries show significant declines versus monthly totals from July 1996: Costa Rica down 40% at 137,966 bags; El Salvador down 59% at 145,355 bags; Honduras down 71% at 37,921 bags; and Mexico down 41% at 130,080 bags. In addition, the preliminary Brazilian July export figure, at 916,598 bags, falls short of the year-ago level by 21%.
By category, June exports in Colombian Milds and Other Milds were below the year-ago figure; Other Milds shipments also were down from the previous year on a 12-month basis. (Both categories contain growths that may be tendered against New York futures). In contrast, June exports of Brazil and Other Arabicas and Robustas were up from year-ago levels, adding to the sharp rise seen versus the previous year on a 12-month basis.
With new-crop harvests in much of Latin America not fully underway until late in the fourth quarter, tightness concerns (real or imaginary) are likely to remain a factor in the U.S. market for the next two to three months. That will be especially true if any of the leading Milds producers experience weather-related harvesting delays or disruptions.
U.S. 1997 Winter Coffee Drinking Study
Originally sponsored by the Pan American Coffee Bureau, the U.S. Winter Coffee Drinking Study has been financed by the National Coffee Association of U.S.A., Inc. (NCA) since 1991, and constitutes the longest and most extensive statistical consumer survey in the coffee world. The latest study, which examined coffee-drinking habits last winter, came to the following major conclusions:
-48.6% of the U.S. population drank coffee in 1997, versus 49.3% in 1996 and 47.4% in 1995. While relatively stable for the last three years, these data are at the low end of a long-term U.S. consumption decline, the magnitude of which is best appreciated by comparison with 1950, when 77.4% of Americans were coffee consumers.
-Average per capita consumption (all coffee) in 1997 was 1.60 cups per day, down from 1.69 the year before; in 1962, the base year for comparison, per capita consumption equaled 3.12 cups per day. Daily per capita consumption of regular coffee in 1997 was 1.41 cups, versus 1.52 in 1996 and 2.45 in 1962. The long-range decline of soluble coffee consumption has been far more pronounced: In 1962, an average 0.67 cups were consumed per person per day; in 1996 and 1997 the figures were 0.17 and 0.18, respectively.
-After soft drinks (consumed by 66% of the U.S. population in 1997), coffee was the second most popular drink in the United States. However, coffee's position is being challenged by juices, which have increased their market share to 49% of the U.S. population in 1997 from 44% in 1990. A continuation of recent consumer trends would make coffee the third most popular U.S. drink.
-Coffee appears to have improved its "image" among consumers over the last four years. Asked to comment on whether coffee was an "affordable" luxury, "70% of the respondents answered yes in 1997, up from 69% a year ago and up from 60% in 1993. In the latest survey, 67% of consumers stated that "coffee is becoming more popular among people like me," versus 66% in 1996 and 55% in 1993. Coffee consumption was deemed "a good way to relax" by 61% of the respondents in 1997, up from 60% in 1996 and 57% in 1993.
-Consumers revealed a high degree of health consciousness, with 55% of respondents stating they paid "a lot of attention" to medical reports regarding coffee and caffeine. In last year's survey the figure was 49%; in 1993 it was 52%.
-The home has remained the preferred location for coffee consumption throughout the life of the annual survey. The 1997 study found that home use accounted for 76% of total U.S. coffee consumption; the workplace was a distant second, accounting for 14% of overall coffee use.
Coffee Stocks In The United States
End-July green coffee stocks in the United States were reported at 2.3 million bags, exceeding the year-ago level by about 22% to reach the highest stocks level since March 1996. While the long-range decline has ended and inventories are expanding, the stock level remains minuscule relative to the 10-million-bag peak of March 1993. We anticipate that stocks will continue to climb through the end of the year, at about 200,000 bags per month.
After reaching a peak of 5.8 million bags in mid- 1993, stocks certificated for delivery against New York coffee futures dropped sharply and were virtually depleted by the end of 1996. Since then, the recovery has been very modest, with certificated stocks reported at 95,695 bags as of August 27. The low certificated stocks level will leave the futures market susceptible to tightness concerns for the time being.
U.S. Retail Prices
Average monthly U.S. retail coffee prices showed very little movement between August 1996 and February 1997, but began to rise in March. Prices moved above the year-ago level in April, and have continued to advance steadily, with the July average roughly 22% above the year-earlier price. Allowing for a lag period, the rise in retail prices reflects the price surge seen in green coffee prices earlier this year. We anticipate that the average retail price will remain above the year-ago level for the remainder of this year.
A major concern for the market is whether the retail price rally will become sufficiently pronounced to affect consumption. The NCA has cited the adverse impact that high retail prices in late 1994 and 1995 had on U.S. coffee consumption, and has found that "significant" retail price appreciation has "always resulted in lower consumption levels." The potentially adverse impact may be softened this year given that several manufacturers (e.g., Folgers and Maxwell House) already have announced that they intend to lower the list price for their 13-ounce canned coffee by 30 cents in September.
Price Outlook
We look for the market to remain well supported over the next three months, and expect to see December futures trade up to the $2.00-$2.10 area, with pullbacks holding above the $1.40-$1.50 level. We also look for the December/March spread to widen to about a 2-cent December premium.
Our constructive outlook reflects several factors: (1) 1997/98 output in several origins could fall below expectations; (2) the slow pace of Brazilian arrivals; and (3) a generally firm consumption picture. In addition, low stocks in the United States and the potential for harvesting delays in various Milds origins are likely to limit the downside.
September 3, 1997Arthur Stevenson
Prudential Securities, Inc.
One New York Plaza, New York, New York
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