wmeubank@ocp.kcmo.com
GREENWICH NATWEST FUTURES
DAILY TECHNICAL RESEARCH
IOM DECEMBER S&P 500 INDEX: Short-term trend down, long-term tend up.
Moving Averages–Positive–5-day 957.94, 20-day 942.15; positive–4-day 957.27, 9-day 954.55, 18-day 945.60; 50-day 944.65.
Oscillators–RSI 49%, stochastic 52/71, MACD 4.99/3.43.
Resistance–963.05-963.25 * key daily resistance. Support–944.45-944.65 * key daily support/major daily support.
Technical Indicators–Pivotal area where the next significant price move is likely to begin. Declining daily oscillators warn of an intra-week move lower. Bullish short-term momentum is now in question due to the market's recent weakness.
Viewpoint–The 947.00 minimum downside objective of the bearish head and shoulders top pattern was met yesterday. Price is now resting right on top of major support at the 944.65 area, which represents the market's 50-day moving average. This support must loosely contain price on the downside, and a new move higher should begin from it, in order for the major uptrend on the daily chart to remain in force. This is a pivotal price area for the market.
CBOT DECEMBER TREASURY BONDS: Short-term trend up, long- term trend up.
Moving Averages–Positive–5-day 115.24, 20-day 113.31; positive–4-day 115.25, 9-day 115.12, 18-day 114.03; 50-day 113.28.
Oscillators–RSI 59%, stochastic 76/86, MACD 0.69/0.44.
Resistance–116.18-116.20 *** key daily resistance/August 1, 1997 major high. Support–115.07- 115.11 * key daily support.
Technical Indicators–Wednesday's sharp rally was made on expanding open interest (bullish). The 20- 50 day moving averages have recently turned upward (bullish). Topping/declining daily oscillators warn of the market's susceptibility to a minor correction.
Viewpoint–The market remains in the midst of apparently healthy major uptrends on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. The 20-50 day moving averages have recently crossed to the upside, which helps to confirm the validity of the major uptrend on the daily chart. Open interest expanded by over 33,000 contracts on Wednesday's rally, which indicates conviction that price will continue higher. Our short- term outlook remains bullish above 115.11-115.07 support today.
September 26, 1997 John J. Kosar
Greenwich Natwest Futures, Inc.
311 S. Wacker, Chicago, Illinois
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