At $4 billion, July 1997 U.S. agricultural exports declined 3 percent from June 1997 and 10 percent from July 1996, placing cumulative fiscal year 1997 exports at $48.4 billion, 5 percent below a year ago. The $3 billion in U.S. imports in July were only fractionally larger than June, but were about 7 percent above June 1996. Cumulative fiscal year 1997 imports equalled $30 billion, up 11 percent from the previous season. The agricultural trade surplus sagged again in July to $18.4 billion for the fiscal year, 22 percent below last year.

The downward trend in bulk exports continued in July, and cumulative bulk exports for the fiscal year were down 11 percent to $20.1 billion. Wheat exports reached 2.5 million tons in July, up from 1.8 million tons shipped in June. But at $3.1 billion, cumulative wheat exports for 1997 are still 43 percent below 1996, despite recent monthly gains. At $5.3 billion, U.S. corn exports remain 29 percent below last season and continue declining monthly as the new harvest nears.

Still constrained by strong competition and dwindling supplies, U.S. soybean exports dropped to 632,000 tons in July from 878,000 in June. Nevertheless, at $6.3 billion, soybean export value for the year continues 14 percent above 1996, reflecting large U.S. exports earlier in the season prior to the onset of the South American harvest.

U.S. cotton exports in July 1997 equalled 109,000 tons, 17 percent below June, and cumulative cotton exports of nearly $2.5 billion still lag 14 percent behind last season. Competition from other large exporters such as Uzebekistan, Australia, and the French-speaking countries in western Africa is rising, with larger supplies expected.

High value product (HVP) exports continued strengthening, rising 11 percent in value during July alone to reach $2.8 billion, a 6-percent increase from 1996. Soybean meal exports have shown the largest dollar gain over 1996, rising $500 million in value to $1.5 billion due in part to significantly increased imports by China, higher European Union imports, and only modest growth in exporter competition from South America.

Growth in 1997 exports of vegetables, poultry meat, tobacco, soybean oil, and seeds also has continued strong. Through July, vegetables and preparations exports reached $3.5 billion, up 10 percent, with most of the gains in value occuring in tomato and lettuce exports. Poultry meat exports rose to $2.1 billion compared with $1.9 billion last year. Tobacco exports are up 19 percent to $1.4 billion in 1997, and seed exports have risen 22 percent to $788 million.

Despite strong South American competition, U.S. exports of soybean oil in July more than tripled, reaching 65,000 tons, up from 20,000 tons in June. Large shipments to China, Haiti, and India accounted for much of the gain. Year-to-year soybean oil exports have risen 70 percent to $422 million.

At $3 billion, July imports were only fractionally larger than in June, but year-to- date imports remain 11 percent above a year ago. Coffee imports again showed strong month-to-month growth, rising to $428 million in July from $373 million in June. At $3.8 billion, coffee imports are up 28 percent for the year. Strong cumulative 1997 growth also has been registered for tobacco ($962 million) and wine ($1.3 billion) imports, up 59 and 21 percent, respectively, from 1996.

Despite a significant drop in U.S. exports of grain to Mexico in fiscal 1997, U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico totalled $4.2 billion for the first 10 months of the year, the same as last year. Cumulative U.S. agricultural imports from Mexico have risen only 4 percent to $3.5 billion. Mexico has supported some of the major gains in U.S. HVP exports this season. While exports of grains are off 34 percent to only $1.1 billion so far this year, exports of live animals, meats, poultry, vegetables, and oilseeds have gained sufficiently to offset this decline. Gains in U.S. imports from Mexico occurred in a number of product areas, including: bananas, tea, meat, poultry, grains, sugar, tobacco, and beverages.

September 23,1997 Economic Research Service

USDA, Washington, D.C.

Consensus National Futures and Financial On Line Index

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