Latest Week	Latest Month
			vs.     vs.	vs.	   vs.
		 Same Week Previous	Same Month Previous
		 Last Year     Week     Last Year  Month
Total Sales	 6.4%		—0.4%	7.1%	   —0.8%
Same-Store Sales 3.7%		—0.3%	4.2%	   —0.1%

The total- store average in the third week of September eased to 6.4% from 6.8% the previous week. The month to date fell to 0.8% below August from 0.5%, widening the shortfall with our retailer target, which expected September to be flat against August.

Retailers reported another week of mixed results, with pockets of relative strength combined with weakness, but the overall effect was to continue the downward drift in the tone of retail sales which has so far marked September

In contrast to their notable week-ago decline, discount stores as a group managed to hold steady on the week, but department stores were decidedly softer. This is in itself revealing of trends, since sales performance at the discounters was sustained largely by non-seasonal hard lines, especially electronics, and by basic consumables, typically to the payroll cycle. Apparel sales, the mainstay of the department stores and the current seasonal focus, appeared to drift, and clothing and soft- goods retailers accordingly complained of a lack of clear themes to drive business. Unseasonably warm weather once again received its share of the blame, and several retailers suggested the drop in temperatures this week may provide the impetus they seek. However, many indicated they had shifted their performance expectations towards the lower end of their target ranges for the month. Redbook again adjusted its forecast downward and now expects September to end 0.5% below August, instead of 0.3% below.

The same-store average for the latest week was 3.7%, compared with 4.1% the previous week, and the same-store month-to-month change fell to —0.1% from up 0.1%. September is a five-week month on the retail calendar, ending October 4, and retailers report monthly sales on October 9.

Retailer target is the weighted mean of the sales growth targets set by Redbook's retailer sample at month-opening, and remains fixed for the duration of the month. Redbook forecast is updated weekly, except in the final week.

		Retailers Target	Redbook Forecast
		Yr-on-Yr Mth-to-Mth	Yr-on-Yr	Mth-to-Mth
Total Sales	 +8.0%		n.c	+7.5%		—0.5%
Same-Store Sales +4.7%		+0.4%	+4.4%		+0.1%

September 23, 1997Redbook Research

A Division of Lynch, Jones, & Ryan, Inc.

Consensus National Futures and Financial On Line Index

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