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(September 25, 1997) CORN: The corn market had a mixed to weak tone during the past week as light pressure stemmed from the prospects of harvest selling along with the fact that export interest is not all that gnat. It also appeared that many market participants did not want to enter into to any large positions until we start seeing some early yields from the harvest which will give the market a good idea how much the USDA will have to adjust their figure for the next few monthly reports. There still seems to be a few optimists that are supporting the market but, market internals are not all that favorable as exports retain behind expected figures not to mention China is still exporting a decent quantity of their own corn. The last report did not show an increase in yield from the August report, but the USDA did tinker with export figure fixing them below earlier forecasts. Since the most resent report had no huge changes from the estimates the market appears focused on the weather which has not been a concern up to this point and should not be providing no large moisture events take place. Overall, look for market activity to stay fixed in a sideways to lower trend between now and harvest unless yields are terribly low or weather delays harvest activity. Technically, December corn is in a uptrend; the trend will turn down on a close below $2.60.
FUTURES STRATEGY–Short CZ at $2.67. Maintain a protective buy stop close only at $2.78½.
OPTION STRATEGY–Short CZ $3.00 calls at $0.07. Maintain a protective buy stop at $19.
Tony Montini
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