CBOT SEPTEMBER TREASURY BONDS: Minor trend down, major trend neutral.

Moving Averages–Negative–5-day 112.28, 20-day 114.18; negative–4-day 112.29, 9-day 113.20, 18-day 114.19, 50-day 113.07.

Oscillators–RSI 46%, stochastic 29/18, MACD —0.07/0.28.

Resistance–113.22-113.25 * key daily resistance. Support–111.31-112.02 ** key daily support.

Technical Indicators–Pivotal area where the next significant price move may begin. Rising daily oscillators warn of an intra-week move higher. Short-term market momentum remains down below the 113.22 area today.

Viewpoint–This continues to be a pivotal short-term price level where the next significant several-week directional move is likely to begin. The market has closed above its 50-day moving average (major support) for the last two sessions, while still in an ideal technical environment for the recent major uptrend on the daily chart to resume if still valid. A close above 114.00 today would help to confirm that this uptrend has resumed. Our short-term outlook remains neutral for now.

IOM SEPTEMBER S&P 500 INDEX: Minor trend down, major trend up.

Moving Averages–Negative–5-day 932.09, 20-day 942.99; negative–4-day 931.01, 9-day 943.57, 18-day 945.84; 50-day 919.85.

Oscillators–RSI 39%, stochastic 15/18, MACD 4.29/9.21.

Resistance–940.80-941.00 ** key daily resistance. Support–916.00-916.20 ** key daily support.

Technical Indicators–Pivotal area where the next significant price move may begin. Oversold stochastic oscillator warns of an impending rally. Short-term market momentum remains down below the 939.80 area today.

Viewpoint–The market remains in the midst of a minor downside correction within the current major uptrend on the daily chart. There are two key levels to watch closely today–major support at the 919.85 area (which price has been “riding” for the last two sessions), and 939.80 resistance (which must loosely contain price on the upside during the session in order for the current downside correction to remain in force). Ideal technical environment for the uptrend to resume.

August 15, 1997John J. Kosar

Greenwich Natwest Futures, Inc.

311 S. Wacker, Chicago, Illinois

Consensus National Futures and Financial On Line Index
Technical Corner Index

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