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(August 8, 1997) WHEAT: We have been analyzing the possibility of a lower Canadian crop for two days. The Canadian Wheat Board lowered their estimate to 21.6-22.4 mmt, versus Ag Canada 24.1 and USDA's 25.5 mmt. But over the last 2 days we have shown you how the world wheat situations is bearish as stocks are projected at 121 mmt versus only 109 last year. Even if the Canadian crop as is and we lower Argentina and Australia, this would still leave world stocks at 116/118 versus 109 last year. Thus the market should have a difficult time rallying. We remain bearish wheat based on the world supply, world and U.S. policy. We suggest selling at market.
Bill Biedermann
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