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REDBOOK RESEARCH REPORT

Retail Sales Index

For The Week Ended Saturday, August 9, 1997


			Latest Week		Latest Month
			vs.	vs.		vs.	vs.
		Same Week Previous	Same Month Previous
		Last Year   Week	Last Year     Month
Total Sales	8.6%	    0.3%	8.6%		0.9%
Same-Store Sales5.0%	    0.4%	5.0%		0.6%

Year-over-year total- store sales growth in the first week of August, ended August 9, 1997, was 8.6%. This was below the previous period, the final week of July, but came off a higher base, resulting in a 0.3% rise on the week, and a 0.9% increase month-to-month, based on the first week's performance.

Most retailers in our sample reported sales on or slightly better than plan. The notable exception to this generally positive outlook was within the national department store category, which was hit in places by declining interest in the type of mid-summer hardline merchandise that drove sales in July. Thexe disappointments were, however, overridden in the general model by strength at the heavily weighted discount stores, and by regional department stores, which also outperformed, though to a lesser extent. Strike-affected catalog sales, estimated to account for no more than 1%-3% of our model, were not considered to be a significant factor for or against these results.

Retailers said demand was relatively steady across a broad range of merchandise categories. In soft lines, the seasonal focus was increasingly on back-to-school and fall themes, and most apparel retailers reportes sales in these areas to be firm and up to expectations.

Our sample's aggregate target for August, a four-week retail month ending August 30, is for annual growth of 8.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.7%. These benchmarks (which also constitute Redbook's opening forecast) are slightly firmer than last month's, despite August last year having been a substantially stronger month for many retailers than July.

On a same-store basis, annual growth for the latest week was 5.0%, and the month average was 0.6% ahead of July.

June Sales Growth Forecasts

Forecasts quantify expected average sales growth rates for the month. Two sets of expectations are featured, one based on sales plans made by retailers at the beginning of the month, and an independent Redbook forecast, updated weekly except for the final week of the month.


			Retailers		Redbook
		Yr-on-Yr Mth-to-Mth Yr-on-Yr	Mth-to-Mth
Total Sales	+8.4%	+0.7%	    +8.4%	+0.7%
Same-Store Sales+4.9%	+0.7%	    +4.9%	+0.7%

August 12, 1997 Redbook Research

A Division of Lynch, Jones, & Ryan, Inc.

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