COMMODITY INSIGHT

152 Ennis Lake Road, Ennis, Montana

(August 14, 1997) CURRENCIES: Even though the Canadian Dollar has been on the decline since January 22, my work continues to suggest that it is in the process of carving out a long-term low. Once the Canuck has indeed established a low, a move upward to the 0.8000 to 0.8400 level can be expected.

Actually, with the Bank of Canada raising interest rates a back on June 26, I thought for certain the Canuck would be in an uptrend by now. But rather than move higher following that jump in rates, the Canuck has actually declined another 40 to 50 points. The Canuck has been a mess.

Nevertheless, in terms of probability, my work suggests that higher prices are coming. So for now, hold all long Canadian Dollar trades and maintain a bullish bias. Help from the Bank of Canada would be nice.

Jerry F. Welch

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Last updated on 08-15-97

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