wmeubank@ocp.kcmo.com
THE ALLENDALE ADVISORY REPORT
Prepared by Allendale, Inc.
Commodity Wrap-Up For August 8, 1997
We have come to a crucial moment in the life of the corn and bean plant. It has been four weeks for some areas since any rain (1 tenth). Forecasters were in strong agreement that rains were coming until about mid-day today, then they varied once more, sending the market up into Friday's close. The week started our very strong as many advisory companies exited all shorts and a few bought into the long side of the market when corn hit 270 and beans pushed trough 670. That was the high. ALDL sold corn, meal and wheat (we missed selling the beans). Then the rains where forecasted and down we went until Friday's late rally. ALDL bought the beans on the break but scratched the trade Friday when rains and bearish private crop projections were released. For the week, December corn closed down 12 cents, November beans down 18 cents and December wheat rallied 7.25 cents based on lower Canadian, Argentine, and Australian crops.
Latest Reports
Private estimates are now out ahead of USDA's report. ALDL estimates are to the bullish side of the trade ranges (we are the lowest bean number). We met with our banker yesterday. According to their reports, a box in Illinois from route 30 to route 136 and from 50 west to Galesburg is the worst hit area. Many of you have called and have reported irreversible damage to crops. We can certainly understand your demoralized and helpless feelings. However, we have been keeping track of these reports, and at this time, we expect that if the rains develop as forecasted, the good areas of IA, MN, NE, IL, WI, IN and SD will make up for the poor areas and we could still have a near average crop of corn. As for beans, we have the month of August to make the crop. They are currently short. But agronomists we are in touch with say that, in general, the short beans are well nodulated. There are some areas that are already “toast” and other areas that are a record. It is just too early to know on beans. ALDL will conduct a full fledged estimate in a few weeks. USDA is also in the midst of their crop assessment for the upcoming report due next week. In this report, they do not count kernels but only assess based on potential.
August 8, 1997 Allendale, Inc.
4506 Prime Parkway, McHenry, Illinois
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