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REDBOOK RETAIL AVERAGES
Retail Sales Index
For The Week Ended Saturday, December 13, 1997
Latest Week Latest Month vs. vs. vs. vs. Same Week Previous Same Month Previous Last Year Week Last Year Month Total Sales 5.4% 0.3% 5.2% 1.7% Same-Store Sales 3.1% 0.2% 3.0% 2.2%
The Redbook total-store average in the second week of retail December was 5.4% from 5.1%, and the month-to-month gain against November rose to 1.7% from 1.5%. As before, this relatively large monthly growth is mainly a reflection of December's sharply higher sales base. In annual growth, December's average year-over-year rate to date, at 5.2%, remains well below November's 6.5% average, and also well below our retailer sample's target for the month.
Retailers said the sluggish sales and low volume seen in the first week of December carried through most of the second week, but that the period ended on a brighter note, as business picked up over the weekend. This closing surge had the additional effect of raising hopes for the remainder of the season. Had the weekend been poor, as some noted, prospects would have looked bleaker.
With more than half of the pre-Christmas portion of December behind them, most retailers still expect to reach monthly targets. Most say promotional activity continues to conform to plan and, in some cases, customer merchandise choices have resulted in less promotional pricing than expected. The season is widely compared to last year's, which was characterized by last-minute shopping after a slow start, a trend retailers say is growing over time. Despite this, continuing weakness at national department stores and early indications of lowered expectations elsewhere have led Redbook to reduce its forecast for December to an expected 3.5% same-store sales gain from 3.9% previously.
The merchandise mix in the second week maintained recent trends, with the focus on women's apparel, accessories and jewelry, as well as consumables, seasonal decorations, and electronics, depending on store specialty. Home and furniture business also continued its strong run.
The same- store average for the week rose to 3.1% from 2.9%, and the same- store month-to-month change versus November was slightly higher at 2.2%.
November Forecasts
Retailer target is the weighted mean of the sales growth targets set by Redbook's retailer sample at month-opening, and remains fixed for the duration of the month. Redbook forecast is updated weekly, except in the final week.
Retailers Target Redbook Forecast Yr-on-Yr Mth-to-Mth Yr-on-YrMth-to-Mth Total Sales +6.6% +3.0% +6.0% +2.4% Same-Store Sales +3.9% +3.1% +3.5% +2.7%
December 16, 1997Redbook Research
A Division of Lynch, Jones, & Ryan, Inc.
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