National Futures and Financial Weekly

Financial Commentary

Copyright 1997 by Consensus, Inc.
December 19, 1997 * * 1737 McGee, Kansas City, Mo. 64108 U.S.A. * * Full Edition

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  • THE ALLENDALE ADVISORY REPORT
    December 12, 1997 Prepared by Allendale, Inc.
    Odds For Next Week
    Corn has an 86% chance of an 8.6-cent rally next week and a 14% chance of a 2.8-cent sell off. Beans have a 55% chance of 9- cent rally and 45% chance of a 7-cent decline. Wheat has a 70% chance of a 10-cent rally and a 30% chance of a 16-cent slide. For more odds, call us.

    COMMODITY FUTURES FORECAST WEEKLY REPORT
    December 18, 1997 Prepared by Commodity Futures Forecast
    Trends Take A Rest
    An overall perspective suggests that markets are taking a year-end rest after experiencing more than eight weeks of trending activity in most complexes.

    FED PRICES FALL TO $66-$64 BY CHRISTMAS
    December 12, 1997 Prepared by Hales Cattle Letter

    SCHAEFFER'S RESEARCH REVIEW
    December 18, 1997 Prepared by Investment Research Institute, Inc.
    The Critical 30 Level
    On The CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX)

    WHAT HAS REALLY CHANGED IN JAPAN?
    December 18, 1997 Prepared by Jack McIntyre
    Yesterday's price action in JGBs and the yen was more about position adjustments than any new trend unfolding.

    MYERS ON FUTURES
    December 19, 1997 Prepared by Steven R. Myers
    Asian Crash = Crash In the U.S.!
    There are some sectors of the U.S. that will crash about as bad as the crash in Asia.

  • NIKKO MARKET COMMENTS #1
    Prepared by The Nikko Securities Co. International, Inc.
    Drop, Drop, Drop
    On The Edge, If Not The Brink
    If you're waiting for the other shoe to fall, you must be thinking that financial crises are like centipedes. For Korea it has been an endless numbing series of setbacks. It is hard to remember a modern currency that fell so suddenly, so completely, so relentlessly out of favor–and without the trigger of roaring inflation! Worries in the Pac Rim are not just about the economic troubles, but about countries that do not seem to want to swallow their medicine. We can argue about the proper pharmaceuticals and dosages but the disease has got to go.

    NIKKO MARKET COMMENTS #2
    Prepared by The Nikko Securities Co. International, Inc.
    Economic News
    Jobless claims rose by 5,000 in the December 13 week to a level of 319,000. Total benefit recipients fell by 9,000 in the December 6 week to hold the insured unemployment rate at 1.9%.

    HURRY SLOWDOWN*
    Prepared by The Northern Trust Company
    *For our Gen X readers, this is a play on words of the title of a 1967 Otto Preminger film. Although the Fed did not tighten policy this week, the minutes of the November 12 FOMC suggested that Greenspan and Co. still had tightening on its mind at that time.

  • INTEREST RATE WATCH
    December 13, 1997 Prepared by R. J. O'Brien & Associates, Inc.
    Global
    The currency and stock market debacle in Asia has turned into a full-fledged debt crisis. This week South Korea commandeered center stage, as it became known that the $57 billion IMF rescue package was insufficient.

    THE OPTION ADVISOR
    December 19, 1997 Prepared by Investment Research Institute, Inc.
    Here's something that may come as a surprise to you–the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is up 29.7% this year. That's more than twice the average annual return since the mid-1970's, more than last year's 20.3% rally, and approaching the 34.2% advance of 1995.

    THE SOVEREIGN ADVISOR
    December 12, 1997 Donald L. Sazdanoff Prepared by Sovereign Management Investment Counsel
    The low levels of inflation, as measured by the CPI, that we have enjoyed since late 1991 has been one of the driving forces behind the bull move in stocks. There now is talk of the possibility of deflation occurring brought about by the financial crisis in Asia.

    STOCKMARKET CYCLES
    December 12, 1997 Prepared by Peter Eliades
    It is perhaps a good time to review our own performance over the past few years. It is very difficult for us to comprehend how we have missed the great profits of the past three years in the stock market. Over most of that period, we have been adamantly bearish in the face of a spectacular bull market move.

  • WEEKLY OUTLOOK
    December 15, 1997 Darrel Good, Extension Economist
    Cooperative Extension Service, USDA
    University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois
    Wheat Prices Continue To Make New Lows

    MARKET CORRECTS EXCESSIVE VALUATIONS NEXT MOVE UP IS IMMINENT
    Prepared by The Wall Street Digest, Inc.

    Copyright 1997, by Consensus Inc.  All American and Pan American rights Reserved. editor@consensus-inc.com

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