Consensus National Futures and Financial On Line Index
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CROP PRODUCTION
HIGHLIGHTS & SUMMARY
Cotton Production Down Slightly
All cotton production is forecast at 18.8 million bales, down 29,000 bales from November, and down 1 percent from 1996. This is the fourth largest crop on record. Yield is expected to average 672 pounds per acre, down 35 pounds from last year. Texas' production was lowered 100,000 bales from last month. Georgia's production was lowered 70,000 bales from last month, as heavy rainfall during the entire harvest season continued during November and yields deterriorated. Mississippi's yield, at 900 pounds per harvested acre, is a record high.
All oranges production for the 1997-98 season is forecast at a record large 14.3 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast in October but up 12 percent from the previous record of 12.8 million tons set in the 1996-97 season. Florida's all orange, early-midseason, and Valencia crops are forecast at record high levels for the second season in a row. Florida's all orange forecast remained at 254 million boxes (11.4 million tons), 12 percent more than the 226 million boxes produced last season. Early and midseason varieties in Florida are forecast at 146 million boxes (6.57 million tons), 9 percent greater than last season. Florida's Valencia forecast of 108 million boxes (4.86 million tons) is 17 percent above last season's 92.0 million boxes. California's all orange production forecast, at 74.0 million boxes (2.78 million tons), is carried forward from October and is 9 percent more than last season. The Navel orange forecast is 44.0 million boxes (1.65 million tons), up 10 percent from last year's production of 40.0 million boxes. The Valencia forecast, at 30.0 million boxes (1.13 million tons), is 7 percent more than last year.
Crop Summary
Area Planted Area Harvested 1996 1997 1996 1997 1,000 Acres All Cotton 14,633.5 13,905.0 12,868.1 13,446.5 Upland 14,375.5 13,655.0 12,612.2 13,197.5 Amer-Pima 258.0 250.0 255.9 249.0 Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed 888.9 914.5
Area Planted And Harvested
1996 And Forecasted December 1, 1997Yield Per Acre
Crop And Unit 1996 1997 All Cotton (bls) 707 672 Upland (bls) 901 665 Amer-Pima (bls) 991 1,027 Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed (ton) 33.1 33.4
1996 And Forecasted December 1, 1997Production
Nov 1,Dec 1, Crop and Unit 1999 1996 1997 All Cotton (bale) 18,942.0 18,847.7 18,818.5 Upland (bale) 18,413.5 18,299.5 18,285.5 Amer-Pima (bale) 528.5 548.0 533.0 Cottonseed (ton) 7,143.5 7,228.8 7,217.8 Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed (ton) 29,462 29,689 30,539
1996 And Forecasted December 1, 1997
November Weather Summary
The Nation's weather patterns became more strongly influenced by the very strong warm-phase (El Nino) episode. Manifestations of El Nino's influence included wet spells across the Southeast (7 weeks) and in California (3 weeks), and dry weather on the northern Plains (7 weeks). Late in the month, significant precipitation returned to the central Plains for the first time since the late-October blizzard.
East of the Rockies, a cold regime that had taken hold in mid-October finally broke down toward the end of November. Despite the late-month warmup, November temperatures averaged as much as 6 degrees F below normal in the upper Midwest and at least 4 degrees F below normal from central Texas to the central Appalachians. In contrast, monthly departures reached +4 degrees F in the West Coast States.
On November 1 in southern California, monthly high- temperature records were established in Burbank (99 degrees F), Oxnard (98 degrees F), and Lompoc (98 degrees F). At the Oxnard Airport, a high of 104 degrees F tied their all-time record, set on September 22, 1939. A day later, the November record of 94 degrees F was tied at Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument, AZ. About three dozen daily-record highs were tabulated across the Southwest on November 1-3.
Despite the nearly constant chill in the eastern two-thirds of the Nation, only about four dozen daily-record lows were reported. Most of those occurred from November 15-18, during the month's sharpest cold snap. On the 16th, Brookings, SD noted —12 degrees F. A day later, lows dipped to 8 degrees F in Gilbert, AR and 20 degrees F in Tupelo, MS. During the cold snap, temperatures dipped to freezing or below as far south as southern Louisiana and Florida's Panhandle.
In Rochester, MN, temperatures averaged below normal on 38 of the 43 days from October 13 to November 24, including 23 in a row from November 2-24. Similarly, a 19-day streak of subnormal temperatures ended on November 21 in Atlanta, GA, where below-normal temperatures had prevailed on 35 of the previous 38 days (October 14 to November 20).
A series of coastal storms battered the Northeast during the month, raking the region with high winds and delivering heavy snowfall at times. An early- November storm produced wind gusts to 69 mph in Portland, ME and 53 mph in Portsmouth, NH. (The same system also delivered wind gusts in excess of 50 mph to the Midwest, including a gust to 59 mph in Sioux City, IA on November 2.) Pittsburgh, PA netted a single-day, November-record rainfall (1.86 inches) on the 7th, during a storm that dumped more than 7 inches on parts of western Pennsylvania. On November 14, snowfall totaled 10.6 inches in Rochester, NY, their earliest 8-inch snowstorm since 1953. Another storm struck the region on Thanksgiving Day (November 27), buffeting Milton, MA with wind gusts to 71 mph. By month's end, snowfall of 20.5 inches in Portland, ME was their highest November total since 26.7 inches fell in 1921. In Albany, NY, precipitation was 5.91 inches (including 11.8 inches of snow), their highest November total since 1927.
Storminess that had affected the Northwest earlier in the autumn generally shifted southward into California during November. Nevertheless, a powerful storm lashed the Pacific Northwest on November 18-19. Late on the 18th, while still well offshore, the storm had a central pressure of 28.76 inches (974 millibars). Peak wind gusts near the coast reached 89 mph in Florence, OR and 81 mph on Cooskie Mountain, CA, south of Eureka. Monthly precipitation ranged from 200 to 400 percent of normal in much of northern and central California. In downtown San Francisco, the monthly rainfall of 6.97 inches was 268 percent of normal, their 10th highest November total in the past 149 years. Monthly rainfall also topped 200 percent of normal across parts of the Southeast.
General Crop Comments
Cool, wet weather hampered fall harvest efforts during November. Both corn and soybean harvests slowed as precipitation in the Great Lakes region kept grain moisture levels high and 7 weeks of continued wet weather in the Southeast kept farmers out of soybean fields. In the western Corn Belt, harvest finished under mostly favorable conditions after an early-month snowstorm. Grain storage shortages delayed corn harvest in some areas. Storms, bringing snow to New England and rain to the Mid-Atlantic States, hindered harvest operations.
Cotton harvest was delayed in the Southeast by 7 weeks of wet weather. Mid-month wet weather problems caused numerous harvest delays in Texas. Farmers in several major cotton-producing States harvested their crops between storms, but the quality of late fields suffered from the moisture. California cotton harvest was mostly complete early in November before rains caused wet conditions for the last 3 weeks of the month. Peanut harvest was virtually complete by mid-November despite continued rainfall across the Southeast.
Early in November, central Plains' farmers made limited progress harvesting their sorghum crop due to melting snow and drifts from a major late-October snowstorm. Farmers made some progress as fields dried or froze, except in Colorado where a second snowstorm blanketed the State and delayed harvest even more. Wet conditions and lack of storage space hindered harvest later in the month. Mid-month snow in Minnesota and North Dakota halted most fieldwork for the winter.
November began with wet soils preventing planting of some winter wheat fields in the central Plains. However, most fields were planted by mid-month. Planting activity increased in California and the Southeast as farmers seeded winter wheat following fall crop harvest and when the weather allowed. Dry, cool weather during the middle of November restricted wheat growth in the central and southern Plains until widespread moisture fell in the area at month's end. The late-month precipitation also benefited newly emerged fields in the Northwest, Corn Belt, and Southeast. In the northern Plains, farmers were concerned about the lack of snow cover going into winter. The winter wheat crop was rated in mostly good condition as of November 30, 1997.
Cotton
Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 13.2 million acres, is up 5 percent from last year, and American-Pima harvested acreage, at 249,000 acres, is 3 percent below 1996.
In Texas, generally favorable weather allowed harvest to proceed at a normal pace in the Plains during November, but harvest was delayed the last week of the month due to showers. Harvest neared completion in the North Central area and the Trans-Pecos continued making good progress. In the coastal areas, heavy rains have diminished quality and yields. In early December, 84 percent of Texas' crop was harvested, 7 percent ahead of average. Cotton objective yield data indicate Texas' crop has the fourth highest boll weights when compared to the previous 10 year's weights.
The Delta States' (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) harvest pace was normal in November. In Tennessee, the usual November rains interrupted field work and producers had harvested 96 percent of the acreage in early December. Louisiana's harvest was complete and Mississippi showed 99 percent harvested. Data from objective yield surveys show boll weights are the third lowest since 1987 in Arkansas, second lowest in Louisiana, and Mississippi weights ranked fourth lowest during this period.
Arizona's harvest was 91 percent complete in early December, only 1 point behind normal. California, at 98 percent harvested, was one point ahead of their average pace, and fields were being disced for bollworm control. December 1 cotton objective yield counts show boll weights are the second highest since 1987 for California.
In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina), harvest progress was behind the average pace, as rains during the harvest season have delayed progress. Georgia producers harvested 74 percent of the acreage in early December, 11 points behind normal, and North Carolina producers harvested 80 percent of the crop compared to the 5-year average of 85 percent.
American-Pima production is forecast at 533,000 bales, up 1 percent from 1996's output but down 15,000 bales from the November forecast. Yield is indicated at 1,027 pounds per harvested acre, up 36 pounds from last year. Arizona's yield prospects improved slightly from November and production was increased 5,000 bales from last month, while California's crop was lowered 20,000 bales from the November forecast. Arizona's harvest was 91 percent complete in early December and had some delays from rainfall. In California, harvest was virtually complete by the end of November. Intermittent rains caused some minor harvest delays but lint quality was not significantly affected. Harvest continued in the Trans-Pecos region in Texas during November, with minimum delays.
All cotton ginnings totaled 14,746,200 running bales prior to December 1, compared with 14,622,900 running bales ginned to the same date last year and 14,199,050 running bales in 1995.
Florida Citrus
Florida's citrus belt weather was normal for November with mild, overcast days and cool nights. Rainfall was adequate for the month. However, many growers were irrigating in their attempt to raise juice levels in the early maturing fruit. The cool weather and shorter days had virtually stopped new growth except in the very southern areas.
Most early and midseason fruit was showing good on-tree color break. Harvest of early oranges for processing increased rapidly during November as most processing plants opened a little early to get a jump start on the record large orange crop. Fresh fruit packing houses were very busy packing Navels, Hamlins, and Ambersweet oranges, white and colored grapefruit, early tangerines, K-Early Citrus fruit, and tangelos. Caretakers were cutting cover crops prior to harvest and for fire protection. Limited fertilizing and other spraying activities also occurred. Some growers reset new young trees where dead trees had been removed.
Texas Citrus
Wet conditions slowed harvest activity during October and part of November. By December, however, grapefruit and orange harvesting picked up pace. Quality and appearance of fruit remained good. Sizes have improved with cooler temperatures.
California Citrus
Navel orange harvest gained momentum in November with over 10 percent of the crop picked. Quality has been reported good to excellent with large sized fruit. Other citrus crops picked were grapefruit, lemons, and tangerines. Quality was reported good for all of them.
Sugarcane
U.S. sugarcane production for sugar and seed in 1997 is expected to total 30.5 million tons, up 4 percent from 1996 and up 3 from November. The expected area for harvest, at 914,500 acres, is 3 percent above last year but unchanged from last month. The forecasted yield, at 33.4 tons per acre, is 0.3 tons above 1996 and up 0.9 tons from November.
Florida sugarcane harvest progressed on schedule during November, with no major harvest problems. In Louisiana, harvest was running slightly ahead of schedule, with 68% of the crop harvested as of December 1, 1997. Most mills will complete grinding by Christmas. Weather in Hawaii was favorable during early November, but rainfall became more frequent later in the month. The rain slowed harvest activity only slightly as most operations were near the end of their seasons. Above-normal rainfall and soggy fields in Texas delayed harvest significantly in early November. Drier conditions later in the month allowed the factory to operate at full capacity by the beginning of December.
Coffee
Hawaii coffee production is estimated at 9.00 million pounds (parchment basis) for the 1997-98 season, up 41 percent from the previous season. Increased harvested acreage, higher yields from maturing trees, and improved harvesting techniques accounted for most of the larger output.
December 11, 1997 Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA, Washington, D.C.
Consensus National Futures and Financial On Line Index
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