Consensus National Futures and Financial On Line Index
Hosted by:
One Crossroads Place
610 West Maple Ave, Suite WWW
Independence, MO 64050
(816) 252-4080
sysop@kcmo.com
REDBOOK RETAIL AVERAGES
Retail Sales Index
For The Week Ended Saturday, December 6, 1997
Latest Week Latest Month vs. vs. vs. vs. Same Week Previous Same Month Previous Last Year Week Last Year Month Total Sales 5.1% 1.0% 5.1% 1.5% Same-Store Sales 2.9% 1.7% 2.9% 2.1%
The Redbook total-store average in the first week of retail December was 5.1%, substantially below the 7.2% reported in the final week of November. However, softer annual sales growth generated a 1.5% gain month-to-month because December's seasonally adjusted dollar base, derived from the Department of Commerce's official retail series, was substantially larger than November's base. This technical kicker, reflected in the relatively high averages recorded by Redbook in December last year, will boost levels throughout the month to the extent that if our sample were to meet its December target of 6.6% annual sales growth, it would report a 3% increase month-to-month.
As it was, the first week fell measurably short of plan, the result of slightly below-target performance by discounters and continuing substantial weakness at national department stores, where the negative year-over-year growth rates recorded in November persist. Retailers described the week as a lull that began the weekend after a hectic (for some) post- Thanksgiving surge, but noted that the pause was typical of the first week of December, and would likely be followed by an equally predictable steady buildup towards Christmas. Also, the week of the 25th contains one additional pre-Christmas shopping day over last year, which is expected to have an appreciable positive impact.
Sales leaders in the first week included women's apparel and seasonal and gift items, including jewelry. Home goods, including furniture, continued their recent strength. Despite the overall below-plan performance of the first week, retailers say they are confident of meeting the December target which, like those for November and October, is relatively conservative on a year- over-year basis.
The same-store average for the week fell to 2.9% from 4.1%, and the same-store month-to-month change versus November was 2.1%, both below target.
November Forecasts
Retailer target is the weighted mean of the sales growth targets set by Redbook's retailer sample at month-opening, and remains fixed for the duration of the month. Redbook forecast is updated weekly, except in the final week.
Retailers Target Redbook Forecast Yr-on-Yr Mth-to-Mth Yr-on-Yr Mth-to- Mth Total Sales +6.5% +3.0% +6.6% +3.0% Same-Store Sales +3.9% +3.1% +3.9% +3.1%
December 9, 1997 Redbook Research
A Division of Lynch, Jones, & Ryan, Inc.
Consensus National Futures and Financial On Line Index
Hosted by:
One Crossroads Place
610 West Maple Ave, Suite WWW
Independence, MO 64050
(816) 252-4080
sysop@kcmo.com
