wmeubank@ocp.kcmo.com
COMMODITY REVIEW AND OUTLOOK
195 Route 6A, Suite 6, Orleans, Massachusetts
(December 11, 1997) ORANGE JUICE: SHORT TERM–January options will expire in a couple weeks, so much of the trade being done now may reflect option writers' desires to keep the market in a certain range. Funds and large hedgers are often large option sellers. OJ supplies are more than ample, the trade is short, and the freeze season has yet to arrive. These are not bullish fundamentals. The only thing bullish about OJ right now is that the fundamentals are well known and already factored into the market. Bide your time or buy deferred calls.
RESISTANCE–Basis January is 8275, 8325-8425, 8540, 8630, 8700, 8875.
SUPPORT–Near 7800, 7620-7650, 7410-7450, 7300 or so.
RECOMMENDATION–Long-term traders or option traders might consider buying March or May calls at current levels for a freeze play. Since this is a market with no new fundamentals apparent at this time, short-term traders should trade OJ strictly as a technical affair. Longer-term traders should hold out for a break of 200-300 points to buy March OJ for a freeze play. If March should take out 8915 on the upside, it implies that the lows are in for now, and pullbacks should be bought.
M. Steven Morgan
|
|
Hosted by:
One Crossroads Place
610 West Maple Ave, Suite WWW
Independence, MO 64050
(816) 252-4080
sysop@kcmo.com