The composite index of leading indicators increased 0.2 percent in October to 104.6 (1992 equals 100), according to preliminary estimates prepared by The Conference Board. This is the sixth consecutive increase in the leading index.

The Conference Board's calculations show that seven of the ten leading economic indicators rose in October. The most significant increases–in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest–are average factory workweek and money supply in 1992 dollars. The most significant negative contributor to the composite leading index in October is the interest rate spread.

The leading index increased 0.2 percent in September, the same value reported last month, and increased 0.1 percent in August, a downward revision of 0.1 percent. During the six-month period through October, the index increased 1.1 percent and eight of the ten leading economic indicators advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 80.0 percent).

The composite index of coincident indicators increased 0.3 percent in October to 117.4 (1992 equals 100). All three of the available components–employees on nonagricultural payrolls, industrial production, and personal income less transfer payments–increased. (Data on manufacturing and trade sales in October are not yet available.)

Based on revised data, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent in September and increased 0.2 percent in August. Over the six months from April to October 1997, the index increased 1.7 percent.

The composite index of lagging indicators increased 0.1 percent in October to 105.0 (1992 equals 100). Based on revised data, the lagging index was unchanged in September and increased 0.3 percent in August.

Net contributions of leading components in September:

Average workweek, production workers, mfg.................0.07(p)
Average weekly initial claims,
	state unemployment insurance.....................+0.00
Mfrs.' new orders, consumer goods
	and materials industries.........................—0.01(p)
Vendor performance–
	slower deliveries diffusion index................—0.02
Mfts.' new orders, nondefense
	nondefense capital goods.........................+0.01(p)
Building permits.........................................+0.02
Stock prices, 500 common stocks (c)......................+0.03
Money supply M2..........................................+0.05(p)
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury
	bonds less federal funds.........................—0.03
Index of consumer expectations (c)........................0.02

(p)–Preliminary.

(c)–Copyrighted. Series from private sources are provided through the courtesy of the compilers and are subject to their copyrights: Stock prices, Standard & Poor's Corporation; consumer expectations, University of Michigan's Survey Research Center.

December 2, 1997 The Conference Board

Statistics

12/02 CHICAGO BOT DELIVERABLE GRAIN STOCKS

12/02 REDBOOK RETAIL AVERAGES Retail Sales Index

12/04 UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

12/01 U.S. EXPORT INSPECTIONS

12/04 EXPORT SALES REPORT

12/01 NAPM REPORT ON BUSINESS

12/02 COMPOSITE INDEXES OF LEADING, COINCIDENT, AND LAGGING OCTOBER 1997

12/02 OUTLOOK FOR U.S. AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS

12/01 OCTOBER 1997 CONSTRUCTION AT $605.5 BILLION ANNUAL RATE

12/04 HOUSING COMPLETIONS SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

12/03 OCTOBER 1997 NEW HOUSING SALES AT ANNUAL RATE OF 797,000

12/04 PRODUCTIVITY AND COSTS Third Quarter 1997

12/05 THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION NOVEMBER 1997

12/05 MANUFACTURERS' SHIPMENTS INVENTORIES AND ORDERS OCTOBER 1997

Consensus National Futures and Financial On Line Index

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