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REDBOOK RETAIL AVERAGES
Retail Sales Index
For The Week Ended Saturday, November 22, 1997
Latest Week Latest Month vs. vs. vs. vs. Same Week Previous Same Month Previous Last Year Week Last Year Month Total Sales 6.3% —0.1% 6.3% —1.7% Same-Store Sales 3.7% —0.1% 3.7% —1.5%
The Redbook total-store average in the third week of retail November eased slightly to 6.3% from 6.5%. The shift was too small to have a discernible effect on the month's average-to-date, which was unchanged from the previous week at 6.3%, and month-on-month change versus October similarly remained at its week-ago level of —1.7%. These results left our model still slightly below its November total-store target of 6.5% annual growth and —1.5% month-on-month.
Retailers said the week was mixed, with performance mostly ranging from on-plan to slightly below. Sales gains were generally led by women's apparel, home goods, seasonal merchandise and, not surprisingly for a pre-Thanksgiving week, food. The exception to mostly near-plan performance was the national department store group, where sales continued to be significantly softer than expected. This leaves the category well below target month-to-date, and heightens its relative dependence on the final week.
Some stores in other groups also expressed disappointment, saying the week had been slower than the previous one, and had thwarted expectations of a steady volume escalation into Thanksgiving. Retailers were hard-pressed to explain such intra-month variations, although one noted that sales momentum had slackened into the weekend, and suggested that slightly warmer temperatures in various parts of the country were to blame. This view was by no means universal, however, and most retailers are reserving judgment on the month until their promotional calendars culminate in the fourth and final week.
The same-store average for the week remained essentially unchanged at 3.7% and the same- store month-to-month change versus October was —1.5%, the same level as the previous week.
November Forecasts
Retailer target is the weighted mean of the sales growth targets set by Redbook's retailer sample at month-opening, and remains fixed for the duration of the month. Redbook forecast is updated weekly, except in the final week.
Retailers Target Redbook Forecast Yr-on-YrMth-to-Mth Yr-on-YrMth-to-Mth Total Sales +6.5% —1.5% +6.5% —1.5% Same-Store Sales +3.8% —1.4% +3.8% —1.4%
November 25, 1997 Redbook Research
A Division of Lynch, Jones, & Ryan, Inc.
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