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TAURUS COMMODITIES
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(November 21, 1997) CURRENCIES: BRITISH POUND–So far unable to get our newest longs off the launching pad, but then we've not been in this trade that long either. Despite prices being somewhat overbought recently, this week's price action should have taken some of that overbought quality out of the market, giving it room to move up now.
DEUTSCHEMARK–A similar situation to the pound, but without the same number of re-entries as the correction here has been sufficient to keep our indicators in neutral. Our expectations are that the move up will continue for many months to come, in line with our cyclical analysis, with “breathers” along the way.
JAPANESE YEN–Good profits on our shorts and an immediate re-entry sell signal. The yen should remain under pressure because of economic weakness in Japan and among its neighbors in Southeast Asia, but fears of verbal or actual intervention are slowing the decline in the yen, at least for the time being. We expect a bottom, but not necessarily soon.
SWISS FRANC–Still sidelined here as the situation is much the same as for the D-mark, at least from both a technical and cyclical standpoint. We expect to see new buy signals and an ongoing bull market resume once the current correction/consolidation is completed, most likely coming sometime next week.
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