CURRENCIES: Penetration of October highs is very bullish. Major 4-year cycle lows in Swiss Franc and Deutschemark. Expect a 24-36 month rise.

CASH S&P INDEX AND DJIA: Historically, in cash S&P there are 27 years since 1952 when the 2nd half of November penetrated the 1st-half November high (949.62). If signaled 23 of 27 had a minimum advance of 1.2% to 961 by year-end. The average move was 4% (987.6). 80% of all years would have advanced 2.7% or the 975.3 level in cash S&P. 70% of all years would have advanced 3.4% to the 982 level. However, new lows for November in 2nd-half November below 900.60 in cash S&P has occurred 17 times since 1952. The minimum decline for these 17 years was 1.4% or 888. The 80 and 70% probability of decline would be to 884.4 and 883 respectively, as the 10-week cycle bottoms no later than November 28.

4-Year Cycle–The most probable time for the 4-year cycle to crest is August 1997 through April 1998. New contact highs after September indicates the 4-year crest should be January-April 1998. After 4-year high has been made expect 2-6 month decline. Mid-term election year price high projections for 10-1-97 to 9-30-98 are 8350-8517.

22-Week Primary Cycle–The primary cycle last bottomed 8-18 893.35 in cash S&P. The 1/2 primary cycle low most probably bottomed on 10-28 at 855.27 in cash.

Trading Cycle–Bottomed on 10-10 at 66.50 in the March contract. Next low is due 11-19 to 12-9.

MARCH TREASURY BONDS: In 13 of 14 years since 1978 a penetration of 1st-half November highs in 2nd-half November at 118.24, if signaled would confirm a minimum advance to 119.30, with 121 to 122.18 possible.

10.1-Year Cycle–The 10.1-year cycle last bottomed September 1990 at 86.28. Next bottom of the 10.1-year cycle due in year 2000 minimum target 99.25 (8.02%) and possibly as low as 88 (9.3%).

Primary Cycle–Last primary cycle low bottomed on 8-13 at 111.10 in March contract. Next primary cycle low due week of 12-5 through 2- 20.

Trading Cycle–Last bottomed on 10-17 at 114.0 in the March contract and the next trading cycle low is due no later than November 27.

JANUARY SOYBEANS: The lows for the month of November should have been made. Seasonal odds are 75% probability of higher prices into December. In 16 or 21 years sine 1952, a penetration of 1st-half November highs in 2nd-half November at 748, if signaled will confirm a minimum advance to 760, and 5% average (785). Therefore, if 748 is penetrated, expect a minimum move up to 760 and a probable 80% and 70% move to 763 and 772, with 785 longer term. However, a declining below 1st-half November low at 701, although unlikely, will confirm primary cycle crest and a minimum test of 688-679.

Seasonal Cycle–Seasonal pattern A is most probable seasonal pattern and indicates that higher prices are likely in October, November and December.

Primary Cycle–The primary cycle bottomed the week of 10-3-97 at 623 in the January contract. Next low due week of 12-19 through 2-20.

Trading Cycle–Last bottomed on 10-30 at 687 in the January contact. Next low is due 11-20 through 12-5.

MARCH CORN: A close below the 1st-half November low at 281 in March contract will signal a decline to 275-272, as the primary cycle bottoms later November- December.

Seasonal Cycle–82% of all seasonal lows occur July through November. This year's seasonal cycle bottomed July 7 at 236 in the March contract.

Primary Cycle–The primary cycle bottomed the week of 7-11-97 at 236 in the March contract. Next primary cycle low is due no later than week ending January 16.

Trading Cycle–Last bottomed on 10-2 at 255½ in the December contract. Next low is due 10-24 through 11-7.

MARCH WHEAT: Penetration of the 1st-half November highs at 379¾ in the March contract will confirm the primary cycle with a minimum advance to 394-417, as the seasonal cycle crests by March. However, a close below 355 would signal a continued decline to 345 with 327 a possibility as the primary cycle bottoms no later that December 12.

Primary Cycle–Last primary cycle low occurred week of July 11 at 343 in the March contract. Next primary cycle low is due no later than December 12.

Trading Cycle–Last trading cycle low on 10-2 in the March contract. Next low due by 11-21.

MARCH SILVER: Penetration of 477 will signal minimum decline to 469 with 80% and 70% probability of 461 and 457.

Primary Cycle–Last primary cycle low was week of 7-18 at 430.60 in the March contract. Next primary cycle low due by 12-19.

Trading Cycle–Last trading cycle low on 10-28-at 468.50 in the March contract. Next trading cycle low due 11-25 through 12-10.

FEBRUARY HOGS: Penetration of the 1st-half November highs at 63.30 in the February contract will confirm the primary cycle low. 20 of 24 years had a minimum advance to 64.55. The average move was 9% (69.00) 80% of all years would have advanced 3.8% or the 65.70 lever 70% of all years would have advanced 4.6% to the 66.35 level. However, a decline below the 1st-half November low at 60.30 would signal a minimum move down to 58.65 with 57.90 likely as primary cycle bottoms by 12-12.

Primary Cycle–The last primary cycle low in the February contract was week of 8-29 at 65.25. Next primary cycle low due by 12-12.

Trading Cycle–Last trading cycle low on 11-12 at 6.30 in the February contract. Next trading cycle low due 12-8 through 12-17.

FEBRUARY PORK BELLIES: Both 3- and 9-year cycles are still moving lower and should not bottom before August 1998. A close below the 1st two weeks in November lows at 59.45 will signal a minimum move down to 57.65, 55.90 with 53.65 possible longer-term. However, penetration of 64.75 will signal intermediate advance to 68.70-70.00.

Primary Cycle–Last primary cycle low was October 15 at 58.55. Next 1/2 primary cycle low due wee of 11- 12 through 1-02.

Trading Cycle–Last trading cycle low occurred on 10-15 at 58.55 in the February contract. Next trading cycle low due by 11-19.

FEBRUARY LIVE CATTLE: Penetration of 69.42 confirms primary cycle low and advance to 71.30-74.25 or higher as the seasonal tops March through June.

Seasonal Cycle–The seasonal tendency from December into the spring, has a strong bullish bias. The last seasonal bottomed week of 7-7 in the spot contract.

Primary Cycle–The 9-week cycle bottomed the week of 9-5 at 71.42 in February contract. New low is due by 12-5. Following this low, seasonal odds favor a bullish trend into the spring.

Trading Cycle–Bottomed 10-30 at 67.75. Next low due 11-17 through 11-28.

MARCH COTTON: Penetration of the 1st- half November highs at 73.89 in the March contract will confirm the seasonal low with minimum advance to 77.51-79.28, with at test of 85.00 as the seasonal cycle crests by March-June.

MARCH COPPER: Penetration of the 1st-half November highs at 73.89 in the March contract will confirm the seasonal low with a minimum advance to 94.90-99.30, with a possible test of 108 as the seasonal cycle crests.

November 17, 1997 Halco Trading Strategies

PO Box 795429, Dallas, Texas 75379

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