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REDBOOK RETAIL AVERAGES
Retail Sales Index
For The Week Ended Saturday, November 15, 1997
Latest Week Latest Month vs. vs. vs. vs. Same Week Previous Same Month Previous Last Year Week Last Year Month Total Sales 6.5% 0.2% 6.3% —1.7% Same-Store Sales 3.7% 0.1% 3.7% —1.5%
The Redbook total- store average in the second week of retail November increased to 6.5% from 6.2%. The firmer tone raised the month's average-to-date moderately to 6.3% from 6.2%, and the month-on-month change versus October improved slightly to —1.7% from —1.8% last week, although remaining negative, mainly as a result of November's lower year-ago dollar base. The latest week brought our model almost into line with November's Total-Store target of 6.5% annual growth and —1.5% month-to-month.
Most retailers said sales were on plan or, in a few cases, slightly above, and most indicated they were satisfied with the progression of this closely watched month, which is expected to strengthen gradually into the Thanksgiving weekend. Our discount store sector notably came in ahead of plan for the week (and remains ahead month-to-date), reporting steady sales across a broad spectrum of merchandise categories, ranging from apparel (where some companies registered particular strength) through holiday seasonal items to consumables, which include food and other staples. Regional department stores by and large indicated they were on plan month-to-date, driven by strength both in apparel and gift-type merchandise, like jewelry. By contrast, national department stores reported below-plan business, and those with hard- and soft-line combinations said apparel sales were relatively weaker. Some retailers noted they expected sales trends to be somewhat erratic and promotion-driven at this time of year. There also were suggestions, based on regional sales patterns, that early winter storms may have kept shoppers away in the Midwest and Northeast.
The same-store average for the week also rose marginally to 3.7% from 3.6%, and the same-store month-to-month change versus October was —1.5% after —1.6% the previous week.
November Forecasts
Retailer target is the weighted mean of the sales growth targets set by Redbook's retailer sample at month-opening, and remains fixed for the duration of the month. Redbook forecast is updated weekly, except in the final week.
Retailers Target Redbook Forecast Yr-on- Yr Mth-to-Mth Yr-on-Yr Mth-to-Mth Total Sales +6.5% —1.5% +6.5% —1.5% Same-Store Sales +3.8% —1.4% +3.8% —1.4%
November 18, 1997Redbook Research
A Division of Lynch, Jones, & Ryan, Inc.
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