National Futures and Financial Weekly
Financial Commentary
Copyright 1997 by Consensus, Inc.November 21, 1997 * * 1737 McGee, Kansas City, Mo. 64108 U.S.A. * * Full Edition
COMMODITY FUTURES FORECAST WEEKLY REPORT
November 20, 1997 Philip Gotthelf
Bonds Touch 11912 Objective
What About Deflation?
Gold Toys With $300
Grains
ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE
November 13, 1997 David Horner
Merrill Lynch & Co
CASH FALTERS AS PACKERS LOOK AT MORE CATTLE
November 14, 1997 David Hales & Tom Horton
"Dave, It's Getting Harder To Sell Cattle. . ."
Beef Production Up, Cow Slaughter Down
Chart Year-To-Year Change In Beef Production
Chart Weekly cow Slaughter
THE OPTION ADVISOR
November 21, 1997 Todd Salamone
As long-time readers of The Option Advisor know, the key to success in market timing depends
heavily on pinpointing extremes in sentiment that are contrary to the underlying market trend. For
example, in a bull market, extremes in pessimism are often powerful indicators that the market is
about to undergo a period of outperformance relative to its average gains. The difficulty in doing this
is defining whether or not the market is trending and then quantifying the various sentiment
indicators
A TEST OF 6% YIELDS ON THE MARCH T-BOND CONTRACT
November 21, 1997 Jack McIntyre
Strategy
Buy the January 119/117 put spread on the March 98 T-bond contract. Current price 58/64.
Break even is 118-03. Maximum profit is 1-06/64. There are 26 days until expiration. Stop out this
position on a close above 120 in the underlying (which would put the cash yield below 6%).
U.S. ECONOMIC AND INTEREST-RATE OUTLOOK
November 20, 1997 Martin J. Mauro
Fixed Income Trading Strategy - Thomas J. Sowanick
It will take some time before it becomes clear how the disruptions in the Asian economies will affect
the U.S. economy. Part of the answer depends upon whether the disruptions spread to Latin
America. Our estimate is that the events in Asia will subtract 0.5 percentage points from GDP
growth in 1998, putting growth at 2.5%.
MYERS ON FUTURES
November 21, 1997 Steven R. Myers
How To Lose Money!
Some traders could not lose money any faster even if they were trying! I believe some really do
prefer to lose money. There are many rules that you have to follow when trading correctly. You
have to run your trading like a business.
STRATEGY FOR THE MONTH
November 13, 1997 Market Systems Newsletter
Mutual Funds
Turning Point Dates And Short-Term Trading Strategy
NIKKO MARKET COMMENTS #1
November 1997 Robert A. Brusca
Greenspan Gives Deflation A “D”
Making The Grade?
Moral Hazard?
Calm And Credibility: On Automatic Pilot?
The Best Darn Economy In The World...
Outlook For The Week Ended November 21st:
NIKKO MARKET COMMENTS #2
November 1997 Robert A. Brusca
Economic News
INTEREST RATE WATCH
November 14, 1997 R.J. O'Brien & Associates, Inc.
THE SOVEREIGN ADVISOR
November 14, 1997 Donald L. Sazdanoff
Portfolio Strategy
There currently is a debate going on about what effects the S. E. Asian financial asset crisis will have
on the U.S. economy, and what if any, long-term consequences there will be for the U.S. markets.
The most likely outcome is that the current economic expansion continues; since the Fed will not
have to increase interest rates, as the economy slows on its own. (There existed the possibility that
the economy was growing too fast and a rise in interest rates would eventually put us into a
recession.)
STRATEGY FOCUS
November 13, 1997 William O'Neill
Table Share Of Asia In W. World Metals' Consumption In 1996
The equity, currency and financial markets have recently been showing a heightened level of concern
surrounding the Asian economic scenario. Commodities, however, have been reflecting these fears
for some time. Pessimism about Asian demand prospects has served to send copper prices, for
example, to their lowest levels in 10 months despite continuing buoyancy in North American
demand and a modest improvement in European offtake.
THE COPPER JOURNAL
November 15, 1997 J.E. Gross & Associates, Inc.
Right...But For The Wrong Reasons
Tables Consumption 1992-1997
Where Do We Stand Now?
WEEKLY OUTLOOK
November 17, 1997 Prepared at University of Illinois
Soybean Oil Gets A Chance
Soybean oil prices were somewhat volatile, but trended lower from May 1994 through August
1997. On a weekly basis, nearby futures traded above $.25 per pound on only six occasions from
September 1996 through September 1997. The average monthly price (bulk, Decatur, Illinois) was
less than $.25 for 17 consecutive months through October 1997. Soybean oil was generally in
surplus from early 1996 through the summer of 1997, as soybeans were crushed to meet soybean
meal demand.
Copyright 1997, by Consensus Inc. All American and Pan American rights Reserved. editor@consensus-inc.com
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