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CROP PRODUCTION
HIGHLIGHTS & SUMMARY
Corn And Soybeans Up Fractionally
Cotton Up Two Percent
Corn production is forecast at 9.36 billion bushels, less than 1 percent above last month and 1996. If realized, this will be the third highest corn production on record behind 1994 and 1992. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 126.4 bushels per acre, up 0.6 bushels from last month but down 0.7 bushels from 1996. Acreage harvested and to be harvested for grain is forecast at 74.0 million acres, unchanged from last month. Yield prospects increased in Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Forecasted yield decreased in Illinois. Indiana, Iowa, and Nebraska yields remained unchanged. As of November 2, corn harvest in the major producing States was 75 percent complete.
Soybean production is forecast at a record 2.74 billion bushels, virtually unchanged from the October 1 forecast, but up 15 percent from 1996. The previous record of 2.52 billion bushels was set in 1994. The yield is forecast at 39.2 bushels per acre, 0.2 bushels above the October 1 forecast and 1.6 bushels above last year. The forecasted yield increased from the previous month in Indiana and Ohio, but decreased in Iowa and Nebraska. Forecasted yields in the remaining major producing states were unchanged. As of November 2, the soybean harvest was 89 percent complete.
All cotton production is forecast at 18.8 million bales, up 2 percent from October but down less than 1 percent from 1996. This is the fourth largest crop on record. Yield is expected to average 673 pounds per acre, down 34 pounds from last year. Production in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi increased 370,000 bales from the previous forecast. Open weather prevailed most of the month, allowing bolls to finish opening in the Delta. Georgia's production was lowered 50,000 bales from October. Heavy rains in the southeastern states during late October delayed harvest.
Crop Summary
Area Planted And Harvested 1996 And Forecasted November 1, 1997
1,000 Acres Area Planted Area Harvested 1996 1997 1996 1997 Corn 79,487 80,227 73,147 74,049 Sorghum 13,188 10,268 11,901 9,512 Soybeans 64,205 70,850 63,409 69,816 All Cotton 14,633.5 13,905.0 12,868.1 13,436.5 Upland 14,375.5 13,655.0 12,612.2 13,187.5 Amer-Pima 258.0 250.0 255.9 249.0 Sugarbeets 1,368.4 1,464.8 1,323.3 1,430.4 Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed 888.9 914.5
Yield Per Acre
1996 And Forecasted November 1, 1997
Crop And Unit 1996 1997 Corn for Grain (bu) 127.1 126.4 Sorghum for Grain (bu) 67.5 69.2 Soybeans for Beans (bu) 37.6 39.2 All Cotton (lbs) 707 673 Upland (lbs) 701 666 Amer-Pima (lbs) 991 1,056 Sugarbeets 20.2 21.0 Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed 33.1 32.5
Production
1996 And Forecasted November 1, 1997
Oct 1, Nov 1, Crop and Unit 1996 1997 1997 Corn for Grain (bu) 9,293,435 9,311,705 9,359,485 Sorghum for Grain (bu) 802,974 664,499 658,508 Soybeans for Beans (bu) 2,382,364 2,721,843 2,736,115 All Cotton (bale) 18,942.0 18,409.5 18,847.5 Upland (bale) 18,413.5 17,863.5 18,299.5 Amer-Pima (bale) 528.5 546.0 548.0 Cottonseed (ton) 7,143.5 7,058.8 7,228.8 Sugarbeets 26,680 29,638 29,998 Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed 29,462 29,695 29,689
Crop Production Narrative
Crop Moisture
Crop moisture depicts short-term (up to about 4 weeks) abnormal dryness or wetness affecting agriculture, responds rapidly, can change considerably week to week, and indicates normal conditions at the beginning and end of the growing season.
Uses–Applicable in measuring the short-term, week- to-week, status of dryness or wetness affecting warm season crops and field operations.
Limitations–May not be applicable to germination and shallow rooted crops which are unable to extract the deep or subsoil moisture from a 5-foot profile, or for cool season crops growing when temperatures are averaging below about 55 degrees fahrenheit. It is not generally indicative of the long-term (months, years) drought or wet spells which are depicted by the drought severity index.
Drought Severity
Drought severity index (Palmer): Depicts prolonged (months, years) abnormal dryness or wetness; responds slowly; changes little from week to week; and reflects long-term moisture runoff, recharge, and deep percolation, as well as evaportranspiration.
Uses–Applicable in measuring disruptive effects of prolonged dryness or wetness on water sensitive economies; designating disaster areas of drought or wetness and reflecting the general long-term status of water supplies in aquifers, reservoirs, and streams.
Limitations–Is not generally indicative of short- term (few weeks) status of drought or wetness such as frequently affects crops and field operations (this is indicated by the crop moisture index).
October Weather Summary
Dry, warm weather prevailed across the Midwest during the first half of the month, while widespread rainfall covered the Plains. Record rains during the second week of the month caused flooding in southeastern Texas, and storms early and late in the month boosted precipitation totals across the Pacific Northwest. The weather turned cold and stormy over central and eastern parts of the country during the second half of the month. A major storm complex brought a blizzard on October 24-25 to the central Plains and several inches of rain to the Southeast.
October was a wet month across the Plains, Southeast, and Northwest. Monthly precipitation totaled more than 150 percent (%) of normal over the Southeast, with rainfall amounts exceeding 8 inches from Alabama to north Georgia. Totals also attained 8 inches over southeast Oklahoma and adjacent Arkansas and more than 12 inches in extreme southeast Texas. More than one foot of rain (150-250% of normal) also fell from western Washington south to northwestern Oregon. Monthly precipitation was high (150- 350% of normal) over the northern and central Plains, but on the dry side (50-80% of normal) from the Great Lakes region south to the Ohio Valley. Unusually dry weather (30-60% of normal) stretched from the interior mid-Atlantic region to New England.
Monthly temperatures averaged within 2 degrees F of normal over most of the contiguous United States, with departures slightly positive over the Plains and slightly negative across the West. Alaskan temperatures averaged 3 to 7 degrees below normal over the interior.
Summer warmth covered the Plains early in the month, as a dozen locations saw October record heat on October 1-3. Pierre, SD, reported 98 degrees F on October 2, tieing the monthly record set in 1993 and 1892. In contrast, readings dipped to near freezing over the mid-Atlantic region, with Scranton, PA, reporting 30 degrees F on October 2. Heavy rain and high winds battered the West Coast on October 1. A strong flow of Gulf moisture brought heavy rains and flooding to southeastern Texas on October 6-13. Month-to- date rainfall on October 13 at Corpus Christi totaled 11.92 inches, already breaking the record for the month. Record warmth covered the central and eastern states on October 5-11, when temperatures averaged 6 to 12 degrees F above normal. Temperatures in the 80's and low 90's set more than 40 daily-record highs this week.
During mid-month, a strong cold front swept eastward, ending the warmth and bringing heavy rains to the central states. Abundant rain across the mid-Atlantic States ended long-term dryness. Colder air streamed southward into the central and eastern states during the following week. The blizzard on October 24-25 left 12 to 18 inches of snow on the ground across southern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas, and 1 to 3 feet across the Colorado plains. As the storm moved eastward during the following 2 days, moderate to heavy snows fell from Iowa to Michigan and northern Vermont to Maine. Thermometers dipped into the teens and single digits on October 26-27 over snow-covered ground from Colorado to Iowa.
Month's end saw drier weather in the Plains, heavy rain and wind across the Pacific Northwest, and more heavy rain along the east coast. By the last day of the month, warmth had eradicated most of the left-over snow from the historic central Plains blizzard.
General Crop Comments
Very warm, dry weather in the eastern United States provided excellent harvest conditions the first half of October. In the Corn Belt, soybean growers harvested their crop at a near-record pace. As soybean harvest finished, farmers immediately switched to harvesting the nation's corn acreage. At mid-month, a killing frost and an early-season snowstorm provided the necessary conditions for drying the corn crop. Heavy snow slowed harvest for several days in the western Corn Belt. After moisture levels dropped, harvest activity surged ahead of the normal pace. Soybean harvest was slowed by late-month showers in the Southeast. Some grain storage shortages were encountered as grain bins filled rapidly and some elevators were forced to use temporary storage facilities.
Cotton harvest progressed ahead of normal in the western cotton-producing states, but behind normal in eastern states. Unseasonably hot weather in the Southwest helped cotton fields to dry out after Tropical Storm Nora. Much-needed heat helped the Texas crop progress early in the month. However, heavy rains and flooding caused lint loss and damage to quality at mid-month. Farmers in the Southeast harvested cotton, rice and peanuts between rains. Rice harvest neared completion at mid-month and peanut harvest was in the later stages by the end of October.
Favorable weather during early October allowed sorghum growers to harvest ahead of the normal pace in the Plains and Corn Belt. However, the early-season snowstorm October 24-25 halted activity in Colorado, Nebraska, and Kansas. Harvest of fall-season crops proceeded under favorable conditions in the northern Plains most of the month, but above-normal precipitation hampered fieldwork in the Northwest. Early-month moisture fell along the middle and northern Atlantic Coast, but came too late to help most crops. Late-month showers hampered harvest efforts in these states.
Early in the month, very warm, dry weather allowed planting of the 1998 winter wheat crop to progress rapidly in many states, especially Kansas, Oklahoma, and Oregon. Planting also progressed rapidly in the Corn Belt as farmers immediately followed a rapid fall harvest with winter wheat seeding. Later on, a major early-season storm system brought blizzard conditions to the central Plains and western Corn Belt, as well as rain to the Southeastern United States. Although planting was delayed by the storm, newly emerged fields benefitted from the precipitation. Rainfall early and late in the month benefitted seeded acreage in the Pacific Northwest.
Corn For Grain
Acreage to be harvested for grain is forecast at 74.0 million acres, unchanged from last month but up 1 percent from 1996. The November 1 Corn Objective Yield data indicate an ear count slightly below 1996, but above the five-year average for the seven objective yield states (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin). The record level ears per acre was set in 1996. As of November 2, 75 percent of the acreage in the 17 major states was harvested. This compares with 62 percent for 1996 and 64 percent for the five-year average. In Iowa, forecasted ear population is at a record high. Eighty-four percent of the corn was harvested compared to 58 percent in 1996 and the average of 63 percent.
Forecasted ear counts in Ohio are above last year but slightly below the five-year average. As of November 2, 41 percent of the corn was harvested, compared to 33 percent a year ago and the five-year average of 50 percent.
In Illinois, Nebraska and Wisconsin, the forecasted ear population is below last year but above the five-year average. In Illinois, 89 percent of the corn was harvested as of November 2, compared to 66 percent in 1996 and the average of 75 percent. Sixty-six percent of the corn was harvested in Nebraska, compared to 67 percent last year and the average of 62 percent. Heavy snow in parts of Nebraska slowed the harvest and caused some stalk breakage and lodging. In Wisconsin, 41 percent was harvested, ahead of the 34 percent for 1996 but behind the average of 45 percent.
Indiana and Minnesota ear populations are below 1996 and below the five-year average. As of November 2, 59 percent of the corn was harvested in Indiana, compared to 45 percent last year and the five-year average of 60 percent. Corn borer and western corn rootworm were a problem in some Indiana fields this year. In Minnesota, 90 percent was harvested, ahead of last year's 74 percent and the average of 60 percent.
Sorghum For Grain
The final production forecast for the 1997 crop is 659 million bushels, 1 percent lower than the October forecast and 18 percent below 1996. The U.S. yield is forecast at 69.2 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushels from last month but 1.7 bushels above 1996. Area harvested and to be harvested was unchanged from October, at 9.51 million acres, down 20 percent from the previous year. South Dakota and Illinois increased their yield forecasts from October, up ten and four bushels per acre, respectively. Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Louisiana showed small declines in yield.
As of November 2, 76 percent of the crop in the 12 major states had been harvested, progressing at the same rate as the five-year average. A major snow storm the last week of October slowed harvest progress in Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska. The extent of crop damage due to the heavy snow is expected to be minimal.
Soybeans
Acreage to be harvested is forecast at 69.8 million acres, unchanged from last month and 10 percent above last year. As of the week ending November 2, the soybean harvest was nearing completion across the Corn Belt. Snow storms and melting snow slowed harvest activities later in the week. Harvest activity in the Southeast and Atlantic states was hampered by heavy rainfall. In the major producing states, harvest activity progressed well ahead of last year. As of November 2, 89 percent of the soybean crop was harvested, 9 points ahead of last year and 4 points ahead of the five-year average.
In Minnesota and Iowa, harvest was virtually complete as of November 2. Minnesota farmers completed harvest about the same as last year but ahead of the five-year average. In Iowa, harvest was completed ahead of last year and the five-year average.
The harvest in Indiana and Ohio was running well ahead of last year's late maturing crop. Indiana farmers harvested 96 percent of the crop by November 2, well ahead of last year and the five-year average. In Ohio, 95 percent of the harvest was complete.
The Missouri harvest was 82 percent complete by November 2, compared to 69 percent last year and a five-year average of 78 percent. The harvest in Nebraska at 92 percent complete, lagged well behind last year and the five-year average.
In the Southeast, the harvest lagged behind last year in North Carolina, Georgia, and South Carolina. The harvest progressed ahead of last year in other southeastern states.
The November 1 Objective Yield Survey indicated pod counts above the 1996 final in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, and Ohio. The pod count in Arkansas is at a record high. Indicated pod counts from the survey are below the 1996 final for Iowa, Missouri, and Nebraska.
Cotton
Upland cotton harvested acreage, at 13.2 million acres, is unchanged from last month, but is up 5 percent from last year. American-Pima harvested acres also remain unchanged from October, at 249,000 acres, and represents a 3 percent decrease from 1996.
Cotton fields in the Texas Plains were being sprayed in preparation for harvest. Rainfall in the Plains and North Central delayed harvest during the month, and the later crop along the Upper Coast showed quality damage from heavy rains during the season. Several locations in the Plains and North Central recorded the first frost during late October, which increased the defoliation. Harvest progress in early November, at 45 percent, was 2 points behind the 5-year average. Objective yield data indicate Texas' large boll counts are the second highest since 1987 and boll weights rank sixth.
The Delta States (Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee) crop remained in mostly fair to good condition during October. In mid-October, about one-fourth of Mississippi's crop was rated in excellent condition, while Arkansas had 17 percent in excellent condition. Harvest exceeded the 5-year average pace in Louisiana and Mississippi in early November. Louisiana had 98 percent of the crop harvested, 6 points ahead of the 5-year average, and Mississippi producers were 85 percent complete, 1 point above average. Harvest in the other states was about three-fourths finished, slightly behind their normal pace. Compared to the previous 10 years, large boll counts ranked third highest in Arkansas and highest in Mississippi but ranked the third lowest in Louisiana. Boll weights ranked eighth in Arkansas, tenth in Louisiana, and sixth in Mississippi, during this same period.
In early November, Arizona's harvest progress was 4 percent behind normal, at 64 percent, as rains during the previous month slowed this activity. California's harvest in the southern areas was slightly delayed from the rainfall associated with tropical storm Nora, but harvest was 9 percent ahead of the normal harvest pace of 66 percent. Harvest was completed in the Imperial and Sacramento Valleys and progressed normally in the San Joaquin Valley. Some producers in Kings County were making a second pick. Data from the objective yield survey show California's large boll counts as the lowest and boll weights fourth highest since 1987.
In the Southeastern States (Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina) late October rains delayed harvest in all States. North Carolina showed 34 percent of the acreage harvested in early November, 21 points behind average, and Georgia had 47 percent of the acreage harvested, compared to the average of 58 percent. South Carolina producers also lagged the average harvest progress by 13 points at 41 percent complete. American-Pima production is forecast at 548,000 bales, up 2,000 bales from October, and up 4 percent from last year's output. Yield is indicated at 1,056 pounds per harvested acre, up 65 pounds from last year. Arizona producers had harvested 64 percent of the acreage at the beginning of November. Harvest was nearly complete in the western area, more than one-half was picked in the central area, and good progress was occurring in the east. In California, harvest began in early October in the southern San Joaquin Valley and progressed north during the month. Late October rains didn't significantly affect yield potential or quality. In the Texas Wintergarden area harvest is complete and is active in the Trans Pecos area.
All cotton ginnings totaled 8,114,800 running bales prior to November 1, compared with 8,868,700 running bales ginned to the same date last year and 8,430,350 running bales in 1995.
Sugarbeets
Production for the U.S. is expected to total 30 million tons in 1997, an increase of 12 percent from 1996 and up 1 percent from the October forecast. Area for harvest, at 1.43 million acres, is up 8 percent from last year but down fractionally from last month. The average yield, at 21.0 tons per acre, is up 0.8 tons from 1996 and up 0.3 tons from October.
In the Red River Valley, sugarbeet harvest progressed behind the normal in September due to unseasonably warm temperatures. However, lifting caught up to the normal pace by the end of October before finishing in early November. Harvest in Idaho progressed normally with no major problems reported. Michigan's sugarbeet yield was the best in several years as harvest conditions were excellent. Producers in California enjoyed mostly favorable growing conditions during 1997, with no major disease or pest problems to affect the crop. In Colorado and Nebraska, yield forecasts were down from October as producers realized lower yields than were earlier expected.
Sugarcane
U.S. sugarcane production for sugar and seed in 1997 is expected to total 29.7 million tons, up 1 percent from 1996 but virtually unchanged from October. The expected area for harvest, at 914,500 acres, is 3 percent above last year but unchanged from October. The forecasted yield, at 32.5 tons per acre, is 0.6 tons below 1996 but unchanged from October. Sugarcane yield in Louisiana was expected to be a little lower than last year's record yield. Insect pressure from the sugarcane borer was light to moderate. The crop was a little short because of a dry spell during August and September. Harvest was running slightly ahead of schedule. The first Florida sugarcane mill opened October 15 and the last mill was expected to open November 5. There have been no hurricanes this season so the cane is standing straight. In Hawaii, with the exception of mid-month showers, October weather was mostly dry in the major growing areas and harvest continued at an active pace. In Texas, yields were close to expectations, but sucrose content was much lower than expected.
Florida Citrus
October was mild and dry for most of Florida's citrus belt. There were a few rains early in the month, but dry conditions prevailed until the end of the month when severe thunderstorms hit the region. No damage to citrus was reported. The additional moisture was quite beneficial to citrus.
The early maturing citrus varieties such as Navel, Hamlin, and Ambersweet oranges, Fallglo and Robinson early tangerines, K-Early citrus fruit, Satsumas, and white and colored grapefruit were packed and shipped at a rapid rate during October. Some packing house eliminations were dumped and destroyed because the processors did not want the early fruit. By the end of October, many of the processors were open and receiving grove run oranges for juice. Citrus grove caretakers have been relatively inactive with limited cutting of cover crops, spraying, and minimal fertilizing.
Texas Citrus
Harvest was delayed in October due to rain in the Rio Grande Valley. The moisture was beneficial, as many areas were dry and short on irrigation water. Demand for fruit was slow during the month but was expected to increase rapidly as gift and fund-raising sales picked up. Quality of early picked fruit has been very good. Although sizes are smaller, pack-out rates are better than a year ago. With the rainfall and slightly cooler temperatures, sizes are expected to increase as the season progresses.
November 10, 1997 Agricultural Statistics Board
NASS, USDA, Washington, D.C.
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