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REDBOOK RETAIL AVERAGES
Retail Sales Index
For The Week Ended Saturday, November 8, 1997
Latest Week Latest Month vs. vs. vs. vs. Same Week Previous Same Month Previous Last Year Week Last Year Month Total Sales 6.2% —2.1% 6.2% —1.8% Same-Store Sales 3.6% —1.8% 3.6% —1.6%
The Redbook total-store average in the first week of retail November dipped to 6.2% from 7.1% in the final week of October. The softer annual growth rate in total-store sales and the fact that November's year- ago dollar base was significantly smaller than October's combined to produce a negative month-to-month change (November versus October) of —1.8%. This was a comparatively large swing, but not out of line with our retailer sample's November target which, also predicting lower annual sales growth of 6.5% (against October's 6.8%) on a smaller base, calls for the month to end some 1.5% below October.
Retailers reported mixed results for the first week, with some meeting targets (albeit more modest ones, in most cases), while others described the week as below-plan. Much of the weakness was concentrated in the department stores, with both regional and national companies complaining of thinner traffic and slower sales. Though year-ago comparisons set higher breakevens for certain stores, but results also reflected softer apparel sales, explained by some sources as a predictable lull between the strong demand for typical fall merchandise seen earlier in the season, and demand for cold-weather and gift apparel expected to kick in during the second half of November. Discount stores, by contrast, were sustained by other merchandise categories, like consumables and also seasonal hardlines, especially toys, now featured with increasing frequency in lists of weekly sales leaders.
Irrespective of their performance in the first week, retailers are reserving judgment until the days after Thanksgiving in the final week of November, which are expected as always to set the tone for the season as a whole.
The same-store average for the week was 3.6%, and the same-store month-to-month change versus October was —1.6%.
November Forecasts
Retailer target is the weighted mean of the sales growth targets set by Redbook's retailer sample at month-opening, and remains fixed for the duration of the month. Redbook forecast is updated weekly, except in the final week.
Retailers Target Redbook Forecast Yr-on- YrMth-to-Mth Yr-on-YrMth-to-Mth Total Sales +6.5% —1.5% +6.5% —1.5% Same-Store Sales +3.8% —1.4% +3.8% —1.4%
November 11, 1997 Redbook Research
A Division of Lynch, Jones, & Ryan, Inc.
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