wmeubank@ocp.kcmo.com
GREENWICH NATWEST FUTURES
DAILY TECHNICAL RESEARCH
IOM DECEMBER S&P 500 INDEX: Short-term trend up, long-term trend down.
Moving Averages–Negative–5-day 940.18, 20-day 947.73; negative/changing–4-day 944.22, 9-day 925.19, 18-day 944.53; 50-day 950.13.
Oscillators–RSI 50%, stochastic 91/86, MACD —6.08/—6.18.
Resistance–950.15-950.35 * key daily resistance/major daily resistance. Support–933.45-933.65 * key daily support.
Technical Indicators–Pivotal price area where the next significant directional move is likely to begin. The 20-50 day moving averages have now turned down (bearish). Daily market momentum remains up today above the 933.65 area.
Viewpoint–The market has been hovering just below major daily resistance at the 950.15 level for the last four sessions. The current major downtrend on the daily chart should resume from the 950.15-963.05 area if the market is headed lower over the next one to several weeks, as my analysis suggests. Daily market momentum is up today above the 933.65 level–downside penetration of this area would help to confirm the major daily downtrend is resuming and lower prices are in store.
CBOT DECEMBER TREASURY BONDS: Short-term trend neutral, long-term trend up.
Moving Averages–Positive–5-day 117.25, 20-day 116.15; positive/changing–4-day 117.19, 9-day 117.20, 18-day 116.19; 50-day 115.12.
Oscillators–RSI 63%, stochastic 44/50, MACD 0.66/0.58.
Resistance–118.02-118.05 * key daily resistance. Support–117.05-117.08 ** key daily support.
Technical Indicators–Daily market momentum remains up above the 117.08-117.05 level today. Bearish divergence remains apparent between price and longer-term weekly momentum indicators. Rising weekly oscillators warn of 1-2 weeks of higher prices.
Viewpoint–Although the market remains susceptible to a downside correction from this price area, our short-term outlook remains up above important minor support at 117.08-117.05 again today. (This support has been containing the market on the downside most of this week.) Our longer-term outlook remains very bullish, as bullish symmetrical triangle patterns target the 127.11 area for a minimum upside objective. Open interest should begin to expand again on higher prices.
November 7, 1997John J. Kosar
Greenwich Natwest Futures, Inc.
311 S. Wacker, Chicago, Illinois
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