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COMPOSITE INDEXES OF LEADING,
COINCIDENT, AND LAGGING
SEPTEMBER 1997
The composite index of leading indicators increased 0.2 percent in September to 104.5 (1992 equals 100), according to preliminary estimates prepared by The Conference Board.
The Conference Board's calculations show that six of the ten leading economic indicators rose in September. The most significant increases–in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest–are average weekly initial claims for state unemployment insurance and money supply in 1992 dollars. The largest negative contributor to the composite leading index in September is manufacturers' new orders of consumer goods and materials.
The leading index increased 0.2 percent in August and increased 0.3 percent in July (neither value was revised). During the six month period through September, the index increased 0.9 percent and seven of the ten leading economic indicators advanced (diffusion index, six-month span equals 70.0 percent).
The composite index of coincident indicators increased 0.3 percent in September to 117.0 (1992 equals 100). All three available components–employees on nonagricultural payrolls, industrial production, and personal income less transfer payments–increased. (Data on manufacturing and trade sales in September are not yet available.)
Based on revised data, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent in August and increased 0.3 percent in July. Over the six months from March to September 1997, the index increased 1.6 percent.
The composite index of lagging indicators increased 0.1 percent in September to 105.0 (1992 equals 100). Based on revised data, the lagging index increased 0.3 percent in August and decreased 0.4 percent in July.
Net contributions of leading components in September: Average workweek, production workers, mfg...................0.00(p) Average weekly initial claims, state unemployment insurance...............................+0.09 Mfrs.' new orders, consumer goods and materials industries...................................—0.03(p) Vendor performance– slower deliveries diffusion index..........................—0.02 Mfts.' new orders, nondefense nondefense capital goods...................................+0.01(p) Building permits...........................................+0.04 Stock prices, 500 common stocks (c)........................+0.02 Money supply M2............................................+0.07(p) Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds...................................—0.02 Index of consumer expectations (c)..........................0.00
(p)–Preliminary.
(c)–Copyrighted. Series from private sources are provided through the courtesy of the compilers and are subject to their copyrights: Stock prices, Standard & Poor's Corporation; consumer expectations, University of Michigan's Survey Research Center.
November 4, 1997The Conference Board
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